Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: San Diego Padres
Introduction & Glossary Post Here
Pitchers
Yu Darvish
Darvish proved to be a great value buy at SP in 2022 in his age-35 season.
30 GS, 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 25.6% K%, 4.8% BB%, 30.7% CSW%, 12.5% SwStr%
He was super steady after a shaky start in April:
His arsenal stayed deep, but he did only use three pitches above a 10% mark:
The SwStr% mark is a bit underwhelming, and it came down a half point from 13.0%. The K% dropped from 29.3% to 25.6% - which is not a great thing. It was the lowest K% of his career, but alongside that he also posted a career-low walk rate at 4.8%.
The other big thing that happened with Darvish in 2022 was that he had a good year with the home run rate, which has been a problem for him in the past.
The career HR/9 is now 1.13, so it’s reasonable to expect that he gets much worse in 2023 in that regard especially given that he’s getting really high up there in age and has a falling strikeout rate.
I don’t think Darvish is going to be expensive in drafts as most people are expecting the wheels to fall off, but I don’t think he’s a guy I will have much interest in even if the price is “right”.
Comps/RankArounds: Lance Lynn
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove cashed in, putting up another ace-like season with the Padres and earning himself a huge contract extension. It was a great year for the man!
30 GS, 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24.9% K%, 5.7% BB%, 31.7% CSW%, 11.9% SwStr%
He got by there with a somewhat underwhelming K% and SwStr%. In 2021:
31 GS, 3.18 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 27.1% K%, 7.2% BB%, 32.8% CSW%, 14.1% SwStr%
Significant drops there in K% and SwStr%. That seemed to mainly come from the slider dropping from a 19.9% SwStr% to 16.5%.
He managed all of that with elite quality of contact stuff, he gave up just a .273 xwOBA, a 6.0% Brl%, and earned a 46% GB%. He is one of these guys without one pitch that really stands out as great, but he has four pitches that all work very well, and that keeps hitters very much off balance.
I suppose we shouldn’t fret about the SwStr% and K% coming down, but I don’t think I can rank him among the top pitchers in the league because of it.
Comps/RankArounds: Zack Wheeler, Luis Castillo
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