Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: Seattle Mariners
Introduction & Glossary Post Here
We are in the thick of it now with just ten teams left to review. The Mariners were one of the best stories of the 2022 season, making the playoffs after a long drought. There was good news all over this roster, and they are already bulking up for another run at it in 2023.
Pitchers
Luis Castillo
It was probably Castillo’s best season as a Major Leaguer
150.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 27.2% K%, 7.3% BB%
A very good season for Castillo. He cut the walk rate down to 6.4% with Seattle. If we could get a full season with a sub-7% walk rate from Castillo, he would be a pretty easy top-ten starter, I think. Chances are that won’t happen though. Here is the arsenal:
Another guy here throwing four pitches above 20% of the time, a very good sign. The four-seamer was sick with a 17% SwStr%, which was the best mark on a four-seamer for any starter in the league.
The four-seamer working that well let him not be so dependent on the changeup
He toyed around there with high sinker usage in August but mostly led his pitch mix with that four-seamer.
The bad news is that he probably can’t repeat a 17% SwStr% next year, but the good news is that he doesn’t have to. He could throw more changeups or more sliders or more sinkers - I mean the guy has a lot of different ways to attack hitters, and he probably decides his pitch mix based on who he’s facing.
He’s very good. He has the 20% K-BB% we love to see and a nice 48% GB%. He certainly doesn’t feel nearly as safe as some of these other aces we’re talking about, because we have still seen him have so much trouble with command at times. I think I will end up preferring pitchers that typically go after him in drafts, but we’ll see where my ranks end up.
Comps/RankArounds: Zac Gallen
Logan Gilbert
It was a weird season for Gilbert as he started great, then was bad, and then finished great. At the end of the season was this:
32 GS, 185.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22.7% K%, 6.4% BB%, 26.5% CSW%, 12.2% SwStr%
The CSW% and SwStr% are a bit alarming, as they really don’t look like the numbers we see from other budding aces. But let’s look at these “streaks” he went on.
From April through July:
21 GS, 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 23.4% K%, 6.3% BB%
August:
5 GS, 6.75 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 12.4% K%, 7.4% BB%
September:
6 GS, 2.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 29.1% K%, 5.7% BB%
What is going on here!
You could maybe point to the reduced slider usage in August to try to explain this:
For the year the slider usage was 24.2%, but in August it was just 16.5%.
All-in-all, the slider doesn’t actually look very good. A 12.6% SwStr% for a slider is pretty bad, but the 13% mark on the four-seamer is really good. He limited barrels on all pitches and has long been a guy posting really strong walk rates.
His splits are pretty interesting:
RHB: .276/.318/.454, 19% K%, 8% Brl%
LHB: .201/.260/.312, 27% K%, 6% Brl%
He doesn’t throw the changeup against righties. He goes 83% usage with the four-seamer and slider - and went for just an 11.1% SwStr% against righties because of that.
The pitch fx:
Good velocity and vertical movement, and a bunch of extension.
I have no idea what to think about Gilbert now, this is all very confusing to me. The most important thing to me is that he has now throw 305 Major League innings and has put up a 23.8% K% and a 6.1% BB% - which is a good but not great K-BB%. I have no idea where this guy will be drafted, but I don’t think he’ll be drafted by me just because I can’t get my head around his performance so far - the numbers don’t really tell much of a consistent story here!
Comps/RankArounds: Pablo Lopez
And that’s all you get for free! Sign up today for $7/month or $70/year to read the rest of the series and have access to my full rankings throughout the offseason, along with the full NFL and MLB in-season products.