Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: St. Louis Cardinals
Introduction & Glossary Post Here
Pitchers
Another year of the Cardinals getting it done without having a very good on-paper roster. Their starting rotation is not shaping up very well for 2023, but they will likely be right there in the division race again. Let’s talk about how they look here in early December.
Miles Mikolas
202.1 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19% K%, 5% BB%, 45.9% GB%, 26.8% CSW%, 9.1% SwStr%
I can’t believe how good the ERA and WHIP are despite nothing else being any good. The Cardinals must be cheating somehow. The ERA probably should be much better since he had that disaster Coors start where he gave up 10 earned runs, take that start away and ERA falls to 2.90. Ridiculous stuff.
Mikolas just soft-contacted the league to death in 2022.
He gave up just a .302 xwOBA, and he will have to do that again to be of any fantasy relevance in 2023 with the pathetic 9% SwStr% and 19% K%.
These are the kinds of guys I always just ignore, and maybe I shouldn’t be doing that. Soft contact is a skill, and these veteran guys can make up a lot of ground in strikeouts just by throwing more innings than other guys.
Like you could take Edward Cabrera over him, but that probably only works out like 30% of the time since there are so many paths to Cabrera only making like 10 big league starts and/or just outright not being good. So I’ll rank him around the Nick Pivetta range - I imagine that still makes me very low on him relative to the field.
Comps/RankArounds: Nick Pivetta
Adam Wainwright
Speaking of weak contact, we have to do this Wainwright thing for another season. I thought he was going to sail off into the sunset with Pujols and Molina BUT NO. Honestly, the Cardinals really need him. I can’t believe we’re still talking about him from a fantasy perspective.
For those of you who don’t know, Wainwright knocked me out of the semi-finals in just a brutal, brutal way back in 2018 and I have not found forgiveness in my heart, even though Waino is a fellow Christian brother of mine. We’ll get there someday, I think I have seventy times seven years or something.
32 GS, 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 17.8% K%, 6.7% BB%, 28.5% CSW%, 7.3% SwStr%, 43.7% GB%
His xwOBA wasn’t even great, unlike Mikolas, at .324. His K-BB% was just 11%, and he only had a 43.7% GB%. I have seen him succeed over and over again despite numbers like this, but I still just can’t make myself believe it will happen again.
I would prefer Mikolas to Wainwright, but I’m not going to end up with either of these guys next year.
Sorry these write-ups are lame so far, I just have nothing interesting to say about these types.
Comps/RankArounds: Miles Mikolas, Nick Pivetta
Jordan Montgomery
You get Jordan Montgomery for free as well since I ripped you off on those first two.
J-Mont made the move to St. Louis around the trade deadline, and put together another pretty decent season.
32 GS, 3.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 21.8% K%, 5.0% BB%, 29.7% CSW%, 13.9% SwStr%, 29.7% CSW%, 47.9% GB%
He will be turning 30 in late December, so he’s no spring chicken but still has plenty of life left on the arm.
What you notice most about Montgomery’s profile is the high SwStr% with the low K%. It’s very Carrasco-ish:
I was ready for the K% to start trending up all year since I was following his high SwStr%.
With the Yankees he had a 14.9% SwStr% and a 20.7% K%. With the Cardinals, it was 12.3% SwStr% and 23.9%. So the SwStr% came down but the K% went up - so just not a lot of things that make sense!
He has a high SwStr% on the sinker as compared to other sinkers, and the curveball and changeup get a bunch of whiffs as well. It’s a really appealing pitch mix, and it supports the higher GB%.
So we have a great walk rate, a nice GB%, three good pitches, and a K% I think should improve in 2023 - he’s checking a ton of boxes.
I really like Montgomery as an in-season buy, and I like him pitching a full season in the NL Central. He’s going to be one of my favorite later-round SPs next year for sure.
Comps/RankArounds: Kyle Wright, Lucas Giolito
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