Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: Tampa Bay Rays
Introduction & Glossary Post Here
I am trucking along with these, fully into the “good” teams now. The Rays didn’t make the playoffs in 2022, but they were certainly a competitive team and there’s no reason to think they won’t be again in 2023. Lots of players to talk about.
Pitchers
Shane McClanahan
McClanahan was running away with the Cy Young until he got hurt and missed some time in late August to early September. At the end of the year it was this:
28 GS, 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 30.3% K%, 5.9% BB%, 34.2% CSW%, 17.0% SwStr%
His 24.7% K%-BB% was fifth-best in the league for pitchers with 25+ GS (Ohtani, Cole, Rodon, Nola).
The best thing about McClanahan is just how good all of his pitches are:
He put up great CSW% marks on all four of those pitches, and really good SwStr% marks one everything but the curveball. His stuff is filthy and he really took a big step forward in command in 2022.
Before the injury stuff crept up, there really wasn’t a close second to McClanahan in terms of who was the best pitcher in the league - it was pretty clear.
The worries for 2023 are obvious - the health, and the innings. He threw 120 innings in 2019, and then 123 in 2021. That pushed up to 166 in 2022, which wasn’t quite what you want to see - but it’s good to see the bulk adding up there.
If McClanahan can get to 180 innings in 2023, it would be hard to believe he won’t be a top-five starter. He wasn’t a guy, and may never be, that went out and threw 110+ pitches per outing - but he didn’t need to. He was regularly cruising through seven innings even on 90-95 pitches. The pitch count stuff isn’t something to get hung up, it’s very rare to find a pitcher that can give you this many strikeouts with so few walks - so yeah, McClanahan is a bonafide ace and should be drafted as such in 2023, he is my new #1 SP.
Comps/RankArounds: Shohei Ohtani, Dylan Cease
Drew Rasmussen
Rasmussen was a pleasant surprise in 2022, making 28 starts for the Rays and winning 11 games.
146 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21.4% K%, 5.3% BB%, 13.4% SwStr%, 27.2% CSW%, 47.5% GB%, .286 xwOBA
It wasn’t the most consistent season start-to-start:
There were some real clunkers in there, but some ceiling starts as well. The Rays were pretty quick to pull him if he wasn’t going well, which will always be a problem with Rays pitchers, especially the young ones. His “stuff” is moderately good.
It’s a deep arsenal, which helps, but he did stick mostly to four-seamer, cutter, and slider. The four-seamer isn’t very impressive, but the presence of the cutter helps and the slider is marginally good. There’s nothing really exciting about the arsenal, but the 13.4% SwStr% was pretty good.
In 2021:
10 GS, 76 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 23.8% K%, 8.1% BB%, 12.0% SwStr%, 30.0% CSW%, 48.3% GB%
The Rays have Tyler Glasnow back in the mix, but they will not have Shane Baz next year - so there are definitely some opening in this rotation. I think Rasmussen will be the #3 or #4 guy, giving him some leash to stay in the rotation even if he doesn’t pitch great out of the gate. He’s a fine pitcher, but I don’t think there’s much ceiling and there’s always extra downside with how the Rays go about their rotation decisions.
Comps/RankArounds: Merrill Kelly, Jose Suarez
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