Sleepers & Busts for Every Team: AL Central Edition
I give out one fantasy baseball sleeper and one bust pick for every team in the league. I take on the AL Central in this first piece.
Links
Guardians
Sleeper: Kyle Manzardo
I write a lot about “Magic Formula Qualifiers” for hitters. It has its own section in the daily notes every day. What that looks for are hitters who are barreling the ball at a high rate while also managing a lower strikeout rate. Manzardo was one of those guys for most of his minor league career. From 2023 to 2023 in AAA:
769 PA, .254/.369/.509, 37 HR, 19% K%
That’s a home run every 20.5 PAs, a very good rate, and it came with that sub-20% K%. It’s a lot easier to do that in the minors than in the Majors, of course, so the jury is still out. We got a little look at him in the Majors last season:
156 PA, .234/.283/.451, 5 HR, 26.3% K%, 9.5% Brl%
That’s an encouraging barrel rate, and he homered at about a league-average rate. The strikeout rate came up, but it didn’t balloon to a point where it’s completely preventative of success.
A lot of rookies struggle to lift the ball, but Manzardo did not have any problems with that, with a 40% FB% on his 105 balls in play. If he can come into 2025 and get that K% down below 25% or so, I think the guy will clear a 25+ homer pace with ease, and there’s upside for a decent batting average and a good supply of RBI if he can find his way into the middle of the Cleveland lineup.
Bonus Sleeper: Juan Brito
Cleveland is in need of a second baseman, and Brito looks like a guy who could get a shot at the job. He is not someone bursting with fantasy ceiling, as he hit just 21 homers and stole 13 bags in 652 PAs in the minors last year. But he was great at getting balls in play (16% K%, 80% Contact%), and he hit a bunch of line drives (24% LD%) and fly balls (29% FB%). I think Brito could be a guy hitting .270 with 15 homers and 15 steals as soon as 2025, but he’ll have to win that second-base job first.
Bust: Steven Kwan
I don’t have anything against the guy as a Major League player. He is very good at getting balls in play, plays elite defense, and is coming off a 15-homer season. He was great for Cleveland last year, without question.
But all of that makes him over-valued for fantasy purposes. Don’t forget that he hit just 11 homers in his first two full seasons (1,356 PAs) while stealing 40 bases. That puts him at risk of being a sub-10 homer and sub-20 steal guy. That would really hurt your fantasy team with his top-150 ADP.
There’s your one free team, for the other four, become a paid subscriber today!