TNF Showdown: Ravens @ Chiefs
I dive into the showdown slate on DraftKings for the NFL's opening night.
I wrote a bunch of these at the beginning of last year but ended up crapping out by week six or so. I received positive feedback on the DFS preview that came out yesterday, so I figured I’d start up the Showdown series again.
Game Prop Bets
I do have a rudimentary projection model, so we can use that to do the same thing we do with baseball and compare our projections with what the Sportsbook is saying. Please do not take these very seriously; I have no idea if this model will be anywhere near profitable this year. The top bets:
Lamar Jackson Under 32.5 Pass Attempts -130
Jackson went over 32.5 pass attempts just four times last year (week 2 vs. CIN, week 16 vs. SF, week 5 vs. PIT, week 14 vs. LAR), so the average projection with no added context is certainly well below 32.5.
The Chiefs did generate the 11th-highest pass rate against last year. That will happen to teams who are typically leading the game. But this is not a spread that has us thinking about a Chiefs blowout. The Ravens clearly can compete with the Chiefs, and the Ravens desired attack is on the ground (their 58.3% pass rate last year as sixth-lowest in the league).
The projection is 29.2 pass attempts, which gives us a 73.6% chance of being under 32.5. The -130 line suggests a 56.5% chance of the under hitting, so there’s value there.
Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 Pass Completions -120
The league average completion percentage last year was 64.4%. The Ravens allowed a rate of 60.2%. Mahomes beats the league average (67.4%) himself as well, so there is a pull from both sides.
This 25.5 is right in the middle of what Mahomes did last year. He went under this nine times, and over it eight times. That’s right in line with the -120 odds.
The way the under hits is probably the same cause as the first bet - the Ravens are succesful at running the ball and keeping this a slow game. If you are taking both of these bets, you’re putting some of your eggs in the same basket, there are somewhat correlated events.
Derrick Henry Over 15.5 Rush Attempts -125
Same story as above, this bet will hit if the game is close and the Ravens are having success on the ground. We have no data on Henry as a Raven, but you would think they’d want to use him heavily this year.
Henry exceeded 15.5 rush attempts 10 times last year, and was under the mark just six times.
To reiterate, all three of those bets rely on the same premise. You should act accordingly (don’t put a full unit on all three if you’re playing it safe).
Now, on to the DFS breakdown.
Game Environment
Over/Under: 47.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -148
Spread: Chiefs -3
2023 Chiefs O: 68.4% Pass%, 5.2 Pass% OE
2023 Ravens D: 67.3% Pass%, -4 Pass% OE
Translation: The Chiefs threw a lot, and they wanted to throw even more. The Ravens’ defense was thrown on a lot, but opponents didn’t really want to.
2023 Ravens O: 58.3% Pass%, -1.2% Pass% OE
2023 Chiefs D: 63.3% Pass%, -1.7% Pass% OE
Translation: The Ravens don’t like to throw, and opponents threw pretty close to expectation against the Chiefs.
Baltimore was the best defense in the league against the pass, with a mark of 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Chiefs were third-best at 6.1. This is a relatively tough spot for both QBs (I say relatively because there are fewer “tough” spots for a guy like Mahomes, and Lamar does just as much of his damage with his legs as with his arm).
The Ravens were much worse against the run, giving up 4.5 yards per carry, eighth-worst in the league. The Chiefs were right behind them at 4.4 yards per carry. So, if things are similar to last year, both teams would be looking to run the ball tonight.
The Showdown
The granular stuff doesn’t matter quite as much when we’re talking about a Showdown slate. There’s one game on the slate. We cannot run to another game with a higher points projection; this is all we have. There are only a couple handfuls of players to choose from, so there is very little reason to fade a team’s best fantasy player just because they might be up against a tough defense.
The way most people play the showdown is to build a bunch of lineups that all follow some possible game script scenario. They try to avoid duplicating lineups with other people, and they are going for the absolute optimal score.
That’s not how I like to do it. I have had, I think, a lot of success just playing the optimal projected lineup and putting it in huge contests. Find yourself a big tournament (10,000+ people), put in the highest-projected, most obvious lineup, and let it beat all of the thousands of other lineups that crash and burn because they were based on such a narrow game script.
We will never (and I mean never) win sole first place (a solo ship, as we say) with this method. Even if the lineup does turn out to be the perfect lineup, it will be duplicated hundreds of times, and we’ll get a fraction of the top prize. But we will hit the minimum cash line more often than not (I think…).
So, let’s get to that lineup, and we’ll see if it works tonight!
The Projections
We will focus on guys projecting well enough to enter the conversation.
Quarterbacks
Most of the time, we will want them both. Quarterbacks have a much higher floor than other positions. They are guaranteed points, and we want guaranteed points. It’s not always going to be optimal, but in this spot, it’s going to be - even with both defenses being tough to throw on.
Running Backs
It is a better spot for the running games, but we have two running backs here who don’t have a ton of ceiling. Isiah Pacheco ($8,400) is the better of the two. He had decent usage in the passing game last year (3.5 targets per game), and the fact that Jerick McKinnon (2.7 targets per game) is no longer here could raise that this year. They did sign Samaje Perine recently, and there’s speculation he could fill that McKinnon role - but for now, it is fair to expect a playing time boost for Pacheco in this spot.
Derrick Henry ($9,000) is more expensive than Pacheco and projects worse. He averaged just 2.1 targets per game last year (and just 13 reception yards), and that will likely come down in Baltimore in this offensive units that has more weapons than Tennessee did last year. His yards per carry also dropped down to 4.2, a career-worst, so the age is a factor.
I know Henry is not optimal here, and I’m pretty sure that Pacheco isn’t either. The Chiefs will throw the ball, they won’t throw it a ton to Pacheco, and the touchdown stuff is never a guarantee with a Chiefs RB. The Chiefs threw the ball 69% of the time inside the ten yard line last year, the third-highest rate in football.
Pass Catchers
The top projected pass catcher here is Rashee Rice ($7,600). Rice last year:
→ 25.6% target per route (21st-best in football)
→ 2.36 yards per route run (13th-best)
→ 0.37 DraftKings points scored per snap (14th-best)
And that was as a rookie! There’s a real chance this guy is a top-10 wide receiver in the game, and he’s only the seventh most expensive player on this slate. He’s a lock for our captain spot.
Xavier Worthy ($5,800) is also an interesting guy. He’s a rookie, so we have no NFL data on him, but the reports are glowing. Apparently, this guy is faster than Tyreek Hill. I’m not a football data expert, but I would have to imagine that being fast is a pretty sticky stat. That has to be worth something. He’s projected for 5.1 targets here, so that’s a pretty easy play to take on for this price.
The guy everybody knows about is Travis Kelce ($9,600). I ended up with him in my season-long fantasy football league, so I’m a fan, but he’s probably not going to make the lineup tonight. The projection is just 6.4 targets and less than 60 receiving yards. He’s the most likely guy to catch a touchdown, but it’s not going to work for that price.
On the Baltimore side, the passing game mostly runs through Mark Andrews ($6,400). He led the team in targets per route (22.2%), yards per route (1.98), and DraftKings points scored per snap (0.30). And then, for some reason, he’s priced at $6,400. Weird. 🔐
Others
The annoying but necessary part about showdown is that we have to deal with kickers and defenses. My home league ditched the kicker years ago, so it’s not something I’ve thought about in a long, long time.
Their projection is basically just their average from the past years, along with an adjustment based on how many points are projected to be scored. It’s nine points for Butker and eight points for Tucker, and Butker is $400 cheaper - so he’s the filler option.
The Lineup
I guess I’ve given most of the story away already, but I’m going to go ahead and throw up a paywall here just so my lineup doesn’t get duplicated more times than it already has to. Subscribe today to get all of my MLB and NFL stuff. There will be a sweet NFL dashboard up tomorrow that will be very useful for fantasy purposes (no matter what or how you play), and there will be more NFL stuff coming down the pipe.