Week 2 NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
A breakdown of the upcoming Sunday NFL DFS slate, with an emphasis on putting together a single high-floor lineup on DraftKings.
Saturday Morning Update
Another value RB opened up with Zach Charbonnet ($5,800) set up to get a ton of work with Kenneth Walker out. I’m not going there, though. The one change in mindset I had was that I now want to get up to Breece Hall ($7,400). The floor/ceiling is so crazy there and that price should probably be closer to $8,000. We need access to the 30+ point game with a few guys, just in case we see some busts in other spots in the lineup. So I’m trying to get there.
I’ll probably be dropping down to someone like Colby Parkinson at tight end to open up the money I need. I have a lineup put together, and it’s really looking nice - I’m excited for another week.
Progress Update
I could not have asked for a better start to this NFL DFS post series. The week one lineup absolutely smashed and returned a 215% ROI. Check out the lineup review here for the full details.
All of the resources are updated for week two. The links can be found at the bottom of this post below the paywall. That means
→ NFL Analysis Tableau Dashboard
→ Player Prop Betting Analysis Sheet
→ Weekly Projections
→ Weekly Ranks
Quick Links
available if you’re viewing this on a web browser, works best on PC/tablet.
What This Is
If you did not read it last week, I will remind you about the purpose here. We are analyzing all of these matchups with the goal of creating a single DFS lineup that will be successful in “cash game” type contests. By that, we mean head-to-heads, double-ups, and small-field stuff. So I’m not going for contrarian plays or always game-stacking; I am just playing the best plays. To me, this is the most fun way to play it.
For more about my overall strategy, read the beginning of the week one preview.
Slate Overview
Colts @ Packers
Total: 40.5
Moneyline: Colts -170
Spread: Colts -3.5
Game Environment
It’s a lower total, but a tight spread. That lines this game up somewhere in the middle of the pack. Both of these offenses are friendly to DFS consideration, and we saw that exemplified in week one. This is not a game to ignore.
Week One Pace Ranks:
Colts: 11th
Packers: 3rdWe should expect the Colts to play fast as they have done in all of Richardson’s starts, but the Packers are bound to slow down with Love out of the lineup. I’d expect both teams to run the ball a ton in this spot. I don’t see any real shootout possibilities here.
Quarterbacks
It will be Malik Willis ($5,000) filling in for Jordan Love after the late-game injury sent Love to short-term IR.
Willis made three starts back in 2022 with the Titans. They did not want him to throw the ball in those starts, here’s the game log:
6/10, 55 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5 rushes, 12 yards, 0 TD
5/16, 80 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 8 rushes, 40 yards, 0 TD
14/23, 99 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 7 rushes, 43 yards, 1 TD
The Titans did not trust him to throw the ball, but he is capable of putting up some yardage with his legs. Maybe he has improved as a passer in two years since then (it would be hard to imagine he got worse…), but we are not looking at a high-ceiling play at all. He really craters this offense. Usually a $5,000 running QB would be very interesting to us, but I don’t think that’s the case here.
We have our week one QB pick on the other side. Anthony Richardson ($6,800) threw for 212 yards (with the benefit of two long balls) and ran for 56 more with three total TDs. The price has come up $500. I think Richardson will be in the conversation every week while he’s healthy, and this is no exception. Jalen Hurts didn’t have much trouble against Green Bay in week one, throwing for 278 yards on 33 attempts, a very high mark of 8.4 yards per attempt.
Richardson will make the list. I think the floor is awesome here, but it’s not shaping up to be the best ceiling spot. If the Packers keep the game close, it will likely be with a slow pace and a lot of action on the ground. If the Colts have their way with it, they’ll play slow and take a lot of time off the clock on the ground. That would still be fine for Richardson, but the 40-point ceiling doesn’t seem to be here.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor ($7,700) handled 74% of the Colts carries in week one and went 17-48-1 on the ground while not earning a single target through the air (he did run 20 routes though, so he should see at least a few targets per game moving forward).
The floor is pretty nice here as a favorite against a beatable run defense, but I don’t think I can pay $7,700 for Taylor with Richardson at the helm. Richardson takes too many carries away (especially in the red zone) and does not seem to want to target guys out of the backfield. Richardon’s ADoT in week one was 16.4 on 19 attempts, so when he was throwing it - he was looking deep down field, and that matches what we saw last year.
On the other side is Josh Jacobs ($6,500). He took on 77% of the carries and added three targets for a total of 19 touches. That was with his backup MarShawn Lloyd ($4,900) inactive, so it’s possible that Lloyd takes a little bit of his work when healthy. We don’t know for sure if Lloyd will be active this week, and this is cleary an elevated rushing spot for the Packers with Willis at QB. We could easily see a 20+ touch game for Jacobs, so he’s a very nice floor play. The question is whether or not the Packers can move the ball enough for Jacobs to fall into the endzone. Jacobs makes the list.
Pass Catchers
Colts TGT/ADoT from week one:
Pittman: 8/9.3
Mitchell: 5/16.4
Pierce: 3/39.7
Dulin: 1/19.0Michael Pittman ($6,600) is still the man in the pass game, but it’s tough to succeed as a wide receiver when your team is only throwing it 20 times. Josh Downs ($4,800) missed that game. His return would be bad news for Adonai Mitchell ($4,000). If Downs misses again, Mitchell is a pretty decent punt play again with the 82 air yards he saw in week one. He caught just one ball in that start, but there were a few high-value targets. If he hauls one of those in, he’s a smash at $4,000. So I’ll temporarily put him on the list, but I’ll only be using him if a) Downs is out again b) I really need someone for $4,000.
Nobody else interests me here. We’re looking at probably 45 total pass attempts in this game.
Recap/Targets
There are three players making the list from this game.
Anthony Richardson $6,800
Josh Jacobs $6,500
Adonai Mitchell $4,000
Mitchell is contingent on Josh Downs being out again and us really benefiting from the flexibility a $4,000 selection gives us.
Raiders @ Ravens
Total: 41.5
Moneyline: Ravens -470
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Game Environment
This shapes up to be a spot where the Ravens have their way and get to 1-1. The implied score here is 25.5-16 in favors of the Ravens.
So we should view this game through that lens. The Ravens led the league in plays run last week (80), and were fourth in both pace and pass rate. The cause of that was that they were trailing most of the game to the Chiefs. Their PROE (pass rate over expectation) was still very low at -3.3%.
If things go according to the projection, the Ravens will run the ball a ton here.
The Raiders played slow in their first game (26th in pace), but were willing to air it out with a +1.3 PROE. Given the pitififul -0.312 EPA/Play (estimated points added) we saw in that game, it’s unlikely they’re able to move the ball much against this stout Ravens defense.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson ($7,700) was fantastic last week with 273 yards through the air, including a toucdhown, and then a 16-122-0 line on the ground. He scored 28.1 points. The Ravens being behind and playing paced-up football is really good for Lamar. The inverse isn’t necessarily true here. Even in a game where they have their way, Lamar is the way they move the ball. His 16 attempts were two more than any single game last year. All of the talk about his weight loss and “best shape of his life” looked pretty true in that first game; he was electric.
Lamar is going to the top of my list, and I imagine he stays near there as we go through all of this. The price tag is tough to get to, so we’ll have to be confident in some of the value options to actually make the play, but I’m feeling pretty good about it for now.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($6,700) was put on the back-burner as the Ravens played catch up. He ran just 13 times for 46 yards with two uncaught targets in the passing game.
This is about as good of a spot as we’ll see from Henry this year with the Ravens being a big favorite at home. I still doubt we’ll be paying $6,700 for him, though, especially if Lamar makes the lineup. He’s just not the type of back I’m ever looking for.
On the Las Vegas side, Zamir White ($5,600) took 59% of the carries in week one, but went just 13-44-0 and 2-2-0 for a weak score of 4.6 DraftKings points. He has the usage potential to be interesting some weeks, but this is not the spot for it.
Pass Catchers
Ravens Tgt/ADoT Week One
Likely 12 / 8.2
Flowers 10 / 5.4
Hill 8 / -1.5
Bateman 5 / 24
Andrews 2 / 5.5
Henry 2 / -10
Agholor 1 / 6
Isaiah Likely ($4,800) was one of the biggest standouts from week one. He earned 12 targets on his 35 routes and added a long touchdown to give him a massive fantasy day. Here’s the comparison with him and teammate Mark Andrews ($5,000):
Likely: 52 snaps, 35 routes, 12 targets
Andews: 53 snaps, 38 routes, 2 targetsPeople will chase Likely this week. The price has come up $1,500 to this $4,800 mark. Given the ugliness of the tight end position, I can’t say he’s not in play, but we’re probably looking at noise rather than signal in Likely’s first game. He and Andrews had basically the same role, and things just all went in Likely’s way. This is certainly a worse game environment for Baltimore pass catchers. Tight end is looking ugly again, so I can’t scratch off Likely altogether, but I don’t think I want to chase that big week one.
Raiders Tgt/ADoT Week One
Bowers 8/4.9
Adams 6/9.7
Mattison 4/-2.3
Tucker 3/7.7
Mayer 3/1.3
Meyers 3/13.7
White 2/-1.5
Turner 1/-2
The Raiders will probably throw the ball a good amount here. That could result in Davante Adams ($7,300) putting up a nice score, but there are too many problems to pay that tag there
Brock Bowers ($4,400) is a bit interesting. He ran 31 routes on 40 snaps and earned an impressive 26% target/route. That shows us that he’s the pass-catching tight end, and this is a probably pass-heavy spot for the Raiders. I’m liking this idea a lot for $4,400. The ceiling is low, but it seems like we’re in for another easy 5+ target day for him.
Recap/Targets
I’m liking two guys here. Lamar Jackson $7,700 and Brock Bowers $4,400. They’re both going to the top of their respective lists here two game sin.
Saints @ Cowboys
Total: 45.5
Moneyline: Cowboys -285
Spread: Cowboys -6.5
Game Environment
We didn’t get a great look at either team in week one. The Saints rolled the Panthers, and the Cowboys drew that brutal matchup in Cleveland. So it’s hard to judge their pace and pass rates and whatnot.
For what it’s worth, the Cowboys did not throw it nearly as much as they did last year (-4.4% PROE). I still expect that to get into the positives pretty soon, this is a team that is built to air it out. That probably starts here as they get their first home game of the season.
The Saints won their game by like a bajillion, so it was not a normal game environment to learn from. Their PROE was -9.3%. That number does factor in the game environment, so it’s useful. What isn’t useful is to tell you that they played at the slowest pace in the league last week, because how else would they play when they were up by 17 in the first quarter and 27 at half.
The betting implies:
Cowboys 26
Saints 19.5It’s a good spot for the Cowboys.
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr ($5,300) took advantage of the Panthers matchup for 200 yards and three touchdowns. But he’s not a QB that fits our build.
Dak Prescott ($6,700) was the easiest fade of week one at cost, but he’s back in the conversation now. That predictably poor performance in Cleveland led to his price dropping $400 down to a more reasonable place. This is not a game likely to be a back-and-forth shootout, and Dak doesn’t run much these days, so he’s still not going to be an optimal play, but he’s someone we’ll take a look at most weeks.
Running Backs
We got some clarity on the Cowboys backfield in week one.
Elliott ($5.7K): 30 snaps, 11 routes, 10-40-1 rushing, 2-9-0 receiving
Dowdle ($4.8K): 27 snaps, 11 routes, 8-26-0 rushing, 1-6-0 receivingIt was a tough environment in Cleveland, but we saw just three total targets go to the running backs with a pretty even split of the carries - making this a backfield to run away from.
On the Saints side:
Kamara ($7.0K): 30 snaps, 14 routes, 15-83-1 rushing, 5-27-0 receiving
Williams ($4.8K): 22 snaps, 8 routes, 11-38-1 rushing, 1-13-0 receivingWilliams got more work in the second half. While the game was within a 20-point margin in the first half, Kamara took 10 carries to Williams’ three. We also got four first-half carries from Taysom Hill ($3,900), so the ball was being shared there even early on.
But that’s a 20-touch game for Kamara in a blowout, a very positive sign. His 36% target/route led the team as well. Kamara remains the engine of this offense, and this is a pretty good spot for him with the Saints likely to be playing a bit of catch-up in Dallas. He is going on the list.
Pass Catchers
Saints Tgt/ADoT
Shaheed 5 / 19.4
Kamara 5 / -3.4
Morea 4 / 8.8
Johnson 3 / 14
Hill 2 / 11
Olave 2 / 6
Williams 1 / 4
The Chris Olave ($6,400) bust was a surprise. He made the list last week, but luckily I did not end up playing him. I don’t think we should change our thinking on him, he was an alpha last year and remains that now. This is an elevated passing spot for the Saints, and that’s good for Olave. He’ll get on the list as a lower-priority consideration.
Cowboys Tgt/ADoT
Lamb 10 / 10.7
Cooks 7 / 11.3
Ferguson 5 / 7.2
Tolbert 2 / 7.5
Leupke 2 / -1.5
Elliott 1 / -2
CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) was also an easy fade in week one, but he’s back on the map here in this better game environment. He’s really expensive, and on this slate there is a must-play expensive WR that isn’t Lamb, so I doubt he makes the final lineup - but he will go on the list.
Brandin Cooks ($5,600) is still out there doing it. He was an every down WR for the Cowboys last week, running 29 routes to match Lamb at the top of the list. That makes him a pretty good value option here at just $5,600.
Jake Ferguson ($4,700) was injured last weekend and it looks doubtful for week two. That opens up some potential value for Luke Schoonmaker ($2,900). He did not participate last week, but he would be the starter in place of Ferguson. Last year he ran 79 routes and earned 15 targets for a decent 19% target/route. His ADoT was the same as Ferguson’s, and he even caught two touchdowns. The ceiling is very low, but for $2,900 I don’t hate it at all - there’s a pretty decent shot he can grab 3-5 balls and possibly a touchdown here.
Recap/Targets
This is one of the best games to target this week. I like
Alvin Kamara $7,000
Brandin Cooks $5,600
Luke Schoonmaker $2,900
Chris Olave $6,400
CeeDee Lamb $8,800
Chargers @ Panthers
Total: 39
Moneyline: Chargers -278
Spread: Chargers -6.5
Game Environment
The Chargers put up a surprisingly low -11.2 Pass% OE in week one and ranked just 25th in pace of play. It was a bit of a weird game as they downed the Raiders 22-10. There wasn’t much of a fight in the game, so those numbers will probably change. But they get another softball matchup here.
The Panthers have very little going on and got smacked 47-10 by the Saints in week one. They are probably the worst team in the league. Their -0.333 EPA per play was worst in the league (the Chargers were at -0.117).
Quarterbacks
I don’t think we’ll be playing any Justin Herbert ($5,800) for awhile. He is not fully healthy and there are very few weapons in this offense. He went for only 144 yards and a touchdown in week one. He wasn’t pushed at all by the Raiders, so that’s a fair point, but he’s also not likely to be pushed at all here by the Carolina. No thanks. And Bryce Young ($5,100) is just terrible.
Running Backs
We will like running backs against the Panthers this year. The Chargers did this on the ground:
Edwards 12-26-0, 1-2-0
Dobbins 10-135-1, 3-4-0
You would have to think that gets JK Dobbins ($5,400) a little bit more work this week, but that is far from a safe assumption. Neither guy played a ton of snaps (Dobbins 32, Edwards 22) - the Chargers were out there without a running back a lot. It feels way too risky to play Dobbins with his limited pass game role and Edwards being there as well, but I could see him having a big game here with 15+ carries and potentially a couple of scores.
Pass Catchers
Chargers Tgt/ADoT Week One:
McConkey: 7/5.3
Johnston: 5/10.8
Palmer 4/9.8
Dobbins 3/-2.3
Hurst 3/10.3
Dissly 1/0
Edwards 1/-2
If there’s a target here, it’s gotta be Ladd McConkey ($4,900). He earned seven targets on his 22 routes for a strong 32% target/route and he scored 14.9 DraftKings points in the process in a game where the Chargers did not have to throw very much. It’s still decently thin since this game will likely be a snooze, but the price tag there is probably a bit too low.
Panthers Tgt/ADoT Week One:
Legette 7/16
Johnson 6/10.5
Mingo 5/7.4
Thielen 4/16
Moore 3/12
Sanders 2/13.5
Sanders 1/-3
No!
Recap/Targets
It’s only Ladd McConkey ($4,900) in consideration for me here. If one of those Chargers RBs would go down in practice, the other one would become a smash play, but until then it’s only LADD!
49ers @ Vikings
Total: 45.5
Moneyline: 49ers -265
Spread: 49ers -6
Game Environment
The 49ers handled the Jets pretty easily on Monday night, and enter this game as a six-point favorite on the road. They went without Christian McCaffrey ($8,700) in week one, and for now it looks like he’ll miss this game as well. That doesn’t move the betting line as much as you might think, but it does make a big difference for DFS. I will view this game as if CMC is out, and adjust later if he’s in.
Even without their star RB, the 49ers still posted a -10% PROE. They do not want to ask much of Purdy, and they’ve had a ton of success over the last several years with this approach. They played at the 4th-slowest pace, although they were ahead for most of the game.
Minnesota was at just -1% in PROE, and they were #23 in pace.
The implied score here:
49ers 25.5
Vikings 19.5
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy ($6,100) just doesn’t play in a way that ever makes him a priority for DFS.
Sam Darnold ($5,200) was one of the big surprises of week one. He went for 208 yards and two scores on 24 attempts. That was the seventh-best yards per attempt in the league at 8.7. San Francisco provides a much tougher challenge for him. They held Aaron Rodgers to just 167 yards on 21 attempts (7.9 yards/attempt) and a bad 0.15 EPA/Play. We aren’t playing Darnold.
Running Backs
The one big edge we sometimes get in DFS is when an injury happens on a Monday Night game. They put the next week’s prices out Monday afternoons, so nothing that happens Monday night is reflected.
That means that Jordan Mason ($5,200) is priced as if he’s not the starter. And that’s a huge mistake!
49ers Backfield, Week One
Mason: 57 snaps, 23 routes, 28-147-1 rushing, 1-5-0 receiving (1 tgt)Kyle Juszczyk was out there a bit, but doesn’t usually touch the football. Deebo Samuel will also get his handful of carries. But the 49ers showed their willingness to ride Mason. Provided CMC is out againn, he’s a lock play coming into this game as a six point favorite against a bad defense.
Vikings Backfield, Week One
Aaron Jones: 27 snaps, 12 routes, 14-94-1 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving
Ty Chandler: 19 snaps, 8 routes, 8-17-0 rushing, 3-23-0 receivingIt was a solid debut for Aaron Jones ($6,100). He made the most out of those 16 touches. There’s a question about if the Vikings are going to be able to move the ball much against this strong defense, but overall it was a positive picture drawn for Jones last week with his efficiency and the relative competency that Darnold showed.
I don’t think we’ll need to consider Jones, but he’s not an awful play.
Pass Catchers
49ers Week One
Kittle: 64 snaps, 30 routes, 5 tgt, 4-40-0, 5.2 ADoT
Samuel: 51 snaps, 26 routes, 9 tgt, 5-54-0, 9.2 ADoT (8-23 rushing)
Aiyuk: 42 snaps, 26 routes, 5 tgt, 2-28-0, 11.6 ADoT
Jennings: 33 snaps, 18 routes, 5 tgt, 5-64-0, 10.8 ADoTMason is the 49ers play. I don’t see much else here. It’s not a spot where the 49ers are likely to play from behind, so there just won’t be enough pass game work to go around here. Deebo Samuel ($6,800) is the best play because of the rushing work, but I can’t pay that price for him.
On the Minnesota side, there’s only guy to look at. Of course, that’s Justin Jefferson ($8,300). He went 4-59-1 for 15.9 points in week one, but his six targets were pretty disappointing. This is simply not the slate to play him on.
Recap/Targets
Jordan Mason ($5,200) is the one and only play here, and he’s a lock if CMC misses the game.
Bucs @ Lions
Total: 51
Moneyline: Lions -340
Spread: Lions -7
Game Environment
Games in Ford Field have been the friendliest game environments in the league for the last couple of seasons. The Lions have a fast-paced, competent offense and a pretty bad defense. That generates points. This is already the second game in Detroit of the season. The first one went for 46 points. The Rams ran 78 plays in that game, and the Lions ran 61.
The Lions will always be worth a close look at home, and any opponent that comes into town will have elevated offensive projections.
Detroit did play relatively slow last week with the 17th-fastest pace in the league. They ran a lot, as they usually do, with a -10% PROE. Tampa Bay scored 37 points at home against the Commanders, so they didn’t have to push it very much - playing at the third-slowest pace and posting a -2.5% PROE.
Both teams are well-balanced. Both teams slightly prefer the run, but are willing and able to have success through the air. Both defenses were in the bottom half of the league last year, and both were better against the run than the pass.
Quarterbacks
It’s a great game environment. That doesn’t mean it’s great for these two pocket passer QBs. We want floor at QB, and that means we’ll always prefer the guys that run. Baker Mayfield ($5,900) shows his capability in week one, taking that awful Washington secondary for 289 yards and four touchdowns. That raised his price $300. He’s not the worst play in the world, and this is another great spot for him, but I’d rather have a little more ceiling with my QB. I’ll put him at the end of the list just in case.
Jared Goff ($6,400) is almost never in play for our type of buil. His ceiling last year was int he mid-twenties,a nd he had more games under 20 points than over - so that’s a no.
Running Backs
We have David Montgomery ($6,000) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600) both healthy, and that means they’re both being used heavily in the offense.
Lions Backfield, Week One
Gibbs: 31 snaps, 19 routes, 11-40-1 rushing, 4-34-0 receiving
Mont: 30 snaps, 11 routes, 17-91-1 rushing, 1-2-0 receivingRunning situations favor Montgomery, and passing situations favor Gibbs. Gibbs has a much higher ceiling with his pass game involvement and big-play ability. When they’re both healthy, it’s hard to play either one of htem.
Bucs Backfield, Week One
White: 42 snaps, 23 routes, 15-31-0 rushing, 6-75-0 receiving
Irving: 20 snaps, 8 routes, 9-62-0 rushing, 2-14-0 receivingIrving grabbed 30% of the carries and was insanely efficient. That could earn him a few more touches, but Rachaad White ($6,300) is the clear lead back here and his pass game role is so valuable in DFS. His six targets were fourth-most among RBs last week (behind Hill/Ford/Achane, tied with Gibbs/Hall/Mattison). He had an encouraging first week, scored 16.6 fantasy points, and now heads into his best matchup of (probably) the season, and his price has not budged. I’m back on White this week.
Pass Catchers
Lions Pass Catchers, Week One
Jameson Williams: 9 targets, 5-121-1, 14.1 ADoT
Jahmyr Gibbs: 6 targets, 4-34-0, 0.2 ADoT
Amon St. Brown: 6 targets, 3-13-0, 4.5 ADoT
Sam LaPorta: 5 targets, 4-45-0, 6.0 ADoT
We thought the two cogs in the passing game were St. Brown and LaPorta, but they both majorly disappointed in week one. I don’t think we should change anything about our view of them. They both have prohibitive price tags though:
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100)
Sam LaPorta ($6,300)
The first guy I put in my lineup this week is going to be another wide receiver priced around $8,000 - so St.Brown and those other expensive WRs probably won’t make it this week, but I’m putting both of these guys on the list for now. As for Jameson Williams, he’s just too reliant on the home run to get to his value, and I’m not going to chase that big game here in week two.
On the Bucs side, it was more of the same.
Chris Godwin: 8 targets, 8-83-1, 4.4 ADoT
Mike Evans: 6 targets, 5-61-2, 10.7 ADoT
Rachaad White: 6 targets, 6-75-0, -5.2 ADoT
Jalen McMillan: 3 targets, 1-32-1, 18 ADoT
Bucky Irving: 3 targets, 2-14-0, -4.7 ADoT
Trey Palmer: 2 targets, 1-19-0, 13 ADoT
Cade Otton: 2 targets, 1-5-0, 3 ADoT
McMillan and Otton ran the most routes at 30. So they’re out there a bunch. But when the ball is being thrown, almost 70% of the targets are going to Godwin/Evans/White. Mike Evans ($7,500) is the long-ball guy and gets the most red zone looks. He has the biggest ceiling of the bunch. Chris Godwin ($6,000) is the safer guy. He gets a bunch of those easy-to-catch targets and is good after the catch. Evans is better, but the $1,500 price tag gives the big edge to Godwin - especially since we’re building for floor rather than ceiling. I really like Godwin here again.
Recap/Targets
There should be points scored here, but we still want to narrow it down to the most reliable fantasy point scorers. That means:
Chris Godwin $6,000
Rachaad White $6,300
Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,100
Sam LaPorta $6,300
And if something happens at QB where I really have to spend $5900 or less, Baker Mayfield $5,900 could be a play as well.
Seahawks @ Patriots
Total: 38
Moneyline: Seahawks -170
Spread: Seahawks -3
Game Environment
This is one of the few games under a total of 40 here, so it’s not immediately drawing our attention.
The Seahawks threw it 56% of the time, right in line with expectation, so they showed us that they’d rather run, but they’re fine throwing when it makes sense. They played at the ninth-fastest pace of week one, so it’s not an offense we necessarily want to avoid.
The Patriots really did not want to throw the ball with Jacoby Brissett, posting a -9.5 Pass% OE, and they played at the second-slowest pace. They really take the air out of the ball, and that makes them tough to target for DFS purposes.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith ($5,500) scored a decent 18 points in week one, but threw it just 26 times for 171 yards. But this isn’t the game environment to play Smith in at all.
Brissett is such an easy QB to ignore, I’m not even going to type his price tag.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker ($6,300) had a nice game in my week one lineup. He took 20 of the team’s 33 carries for 103 yards and a score, adding a weak 2-6-0 line in the passing game. He has the workload that we like, as we talked about last week, but the ceiling is not anywhere near where we want it to be in this particular matchup.
He does have a questionable tag right now. It seems like that will go away by the weekend. Even if he’s out, DraftKings has priced up these backup RBs ahead of time, making Zach Charbonnet ($5,800) not a priority target no matter what happens.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200) is clearly the Patriots best player. He carries it 25 times for 120 yards and a touchdown and added three low-value targets. That’s a big 24.6 point game, which would have been his best score of 2023 as well.
It’s tough to click any names in this game with how slow and low-scoring it’s likely to be, but Stevenson isn’t the worst play in the world given the touch projection being as high as it’s going to be.
Pass Catchers
We are not going to play anybody from this game, but it’s still good to look at the numbers and get familiar with these teams.
Seahawks Tgt/ADoT Week One:
Lockett 7/12.4
Metcalf 5/10.4
Fant 4/4.5
Charbonnet 3/3
Walker 3/-3.7
JSN 2/3
Shenault 1/-3
That was brutal for Smith-Njigba, and makes this passing game even more unplayable since it’s not clear who the top one or two guys are.
Patriots Tgt/ADoT Week One:
Osborn 6/4.7
Hooper 4/4.5
Thornton 3/19
Stevenson 3/-1
Henry 3/8.7
Douglas 2/6
Polk 1/6
Recap/Targets
Probably nobody, but Rhamondre Stevenson makes the bottom of the list due to his workload.
Browns @ Jaguars
Total: 42
Moneyline: Jaguars -166
Spread: Jaguars -3
Game Environment
Most Browns games are going to see their totals in this territory. The Jaguars bring the total up a bit, and that in theory would help some of these Browns plays, but this game is a pretty easy stay-away.
The Browns played fast in week one in their loss to the Cowboys, but didn’t pass the ball at a high rate. Jacksonville also preferred the run with a -13% PROE.
Cleveland’s defense was strong, allowing just 4.3 yards per play to a good Dallas offense. The Jags held the Dolphins to 20 points in a loss, so that was a decent showing.
Quarterbacks
Both QBs are easy to pass on.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford ($5,900) took 12 of 14 RB carries for the Browns for a 12-44-1 line on the ground, adding 6-25-0 through the air on seven targets. That’s 18 touches and a lot more usage in the pass game than expected. Good stuff for him. We have a ton of options at wide receiver this week, so that pushes me toward a two RB build. Since we already have Jordan Mason as a lock, it’ll be tough for Ford to make a push for the second spot - but he’s a pretty decent play at this price.
Surprisingly, the Jaguars split the work. Travis Etienne ($7,200) had a costly fumble, and it ended like this:
Etienne: 34 snaps, 14 routes, 12-44-1 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving (3 tgt)
Bigsby: 17 snaps, 4 routes, 12-73-0 rushing, 0-0-0 (0 tgt)A split at RB against Cleveland is a very easy situation to ignore.
Pass Catchers
I’m not touching the Browns passing game any time soon.
Jaguars Week One:
Engram: 4 targets, 1-5-0
Kirk: 4 targets, 1-30-0
Thomas: 4 targets, 4-47-1
Etienne: 3 targets, 2-15-0
Davis: 3 targets, 3-62-0
Washington: 1 target, 1-3-0It’s a mess, and not a mess worth even trying to sort out against Cleveland.
Recap/Targets
Jerome Ford ($5,900) is the only one that’s close, but this game is not one to target.
Giants @ Commanders
Total: 44
Moneyline: Commanders -135
Spread: Commanders -2.5
Game Environment
Two pretty bad teams here with a decent total and a tight spread. The Commanders gave up a big 6.0 yards per play last season (second-most), and the Giants gave up 5.7 (fifth-most). Both offenses are in a good spot.
The Commanders weren’t terrible on offense last week, they were able to score 20 points while playing in catch-up mode. The Giants scored just six points against the Vikings. I don’t think I want to go anywhere near the New York offense right now, especially on this loaded slate, but we’ll see.
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones ($5,300) threw for just 186 yards on 42 attempts, an insanely bad 4.4 yards per attempt, and he added just 6-15-0 on the ground. Easy pass there no matter how cheap he is.
Jayden Daniels ($6,200) was one of the better QB plays last week, scoring 28.2 fantasy points. He did most of that damage on the ground
→ 25-184-0 passing
→ 16-88-2 rushingThey were paced-up a bit playing from behind. The Giants don’t figure to have the offensive chops to get up big and make the Commanders play fast, so this isn’t all that great of a matchup even if the Giants defense is beatable.
The floor seems really strong with Daniels, and that’s a reason to play him if we need to be in that range of price.
Running Backs
A running QB like Daniels takes the RBs off the board for us. Washington’s RBs last week:
Brian Robinson: 32 snaps, 12-40-1 rushing, 3-49-0 receiving
Austin Ekeler: 28 snaps, 2-10-0 rushing, 4-52-0 receivingDecent role for Robinson with 15 touches there, but I can’t go here.
The Giants are a very easy pass.
Pass Catchers
Malik Nabers ($5,900) played all of the snaps and earned seven targets. He went 5-66-0 through the air. That’s a good sign overall, and this is a good spot for the Giants - I just don’t want to invest in this offense when I’m only building one lineup.
Recap/Targets
Quick one here, nobody is interseting in this game. Nabers for the upside in tournament lineups, but we’re not playing that.
Jets @ Titans
Total: 42
Moneyline: Jets -198
Spread: Jets -4
Game Environment
The environment here is not favorable. The Jets played at a 0% PROE last week, so that’s normal. The Titans were at -7%. The Jets played pretty quickly, although they were in catch-up mode in that game. The Titans played slow and lost 24-17 to the Bears.
Quarterbacks
It’s Will Levis ($5,200) and Aaron Rodgers ($5,900), neither of whom are good DFS plays especially in this spot.
Running Backs
Titans Backfield, Week One
Pollard: 38 snaps, 15 routes, 16-82-1 rushing, 3-12-0 receiving (4 tgt)
Spears: 27 snaps, 20 routes, 4-21-0 rushing, 4-11-0 receiving (4 tgt)It was a positive debut for Tony Pollard ($5,900) with the 19 touches and solid efficiency, but this isn’t a good spot for him, and I doubt he’ll find himself in very many good spots this year with Levis under center.
Breece Hall ($7,400) is the one guy we’ll consider most weeks. His week one:
41 of 49 snaps
22 routes
17-54-1 rushing
5-39-0 receiving
That was 18.3 fantasy points. He’s going to have some massive games this year. I don’t think he’s a horrible play here, but it’s not the best spot - and there are many others I want to play in the upper-echelon of price. So I’ll fade Hall this week.
Pass Catchers
Jets Week One:
Garrett Wilson: 31 routes, 11 targets, 6-60-0, 9.0 ADoT
Allen Lazard: 31 routes, 9 targets, 6-89-2, 10.9 ADoTMike Williams barely played and is off the board until further notice.
Garrett Wilson ($7,100) is the guy in this offense, but it’s the same story as with Hall - it’s just too poor of a game environment to play him in my single lineup.
Allen Lazard ($3,300) smashed on his nine targets. Catching both touchdowns was a bit fortunate, and he benefited from the Jets trailing by a bunch, which probably won’t happen this time. Mike Williams will eventually eat into his role, but for now it seems like he’s the clear #2. Wilson, Lazardo, and Hall combined for 90% of the targets. Lazard makes the list here just because of the price tag.
Recap/Targets
I don’t like anybody here except for Allen Lazard ($3,300). If he had seen those nine targets and two touchdowns on Sunday instead of Monday, this price would probably be $2,000 or so higher.
Rams @ Cardinals
Total: 49.5
Moneyline: Cardinals -120
Spread: Cardinals -1.5
Game Environment
This is quite possibly the best game environment of the week. We really want to focus in on this game as well as the Bucs/Lions.
The Rams went for a 1.4% PROE, which was third-highest in the league (most teams ran a ton last week…). The Cardinals were at -0.7%, which was also in the top-half of the league.
The Rams played at the eighth-fastest pace while Arizona ranked 21st.
The total says it all here - it’s a very good game to target.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford ($6,000) just doesn’t have the rushing upside to play in our situations. But Kyler Murray ($6,600) is interesting for us in this game.
He threw it 31 times last week for 162 yards and a touchdown, and went 5-57-0 on the ground. That was just a score of 14.2 points. That’s not what we’re looking for, obviously, but the Bills are a tough defense.
Murray will have nice big games. The price is up there. I prefer to either get up to Lamar or down to Daniels, but Murray is perfectly fine.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams ($6,800) once again dominated the backfield for the Rams. He played 67 of the 74 snaps and took 18 of the 20 RB carries. Blake Corum did not play an offensive snap, from what I can see at least. Williams added 3-4-0 through the air on three targets. Last year, he averaged four targets, 2.7 catches, and 17 receiving yards per game - so week one could be considered a down game for him on that front.
He is a very appealing play here. It’s a great game environment, he seems to still be the workhorse there, and that’s exactly the type of back we’re looking for. The slight risk is that Corum enters the conversation this week and starts taking away from Williams. That could happen at some point, but I don’t think it’s a big enough concern to matter to us this week. Kyren goes on the list!
James Conner ($6,400) is around that same price tag. He got the ball a ton last week and posted a nice score:
→ 17-50-1 rushing, 3-33-0 receiving, 19.3 fantasy points
His backup Trey Benson only saw four carries and one target, so it’s Conner’s backfield currently. Conner is fine, but the price is too much. He’s priced right around Williams and Rachaad White, and I much prefer those two all things being considered.
Pass Catchers
The lock of the week is here, and that is Cooper Kupp ($7,600). He’s healthy, and Puka Nacua is out. That led to him doing this last week:
→ 74 snaps (100%), 51 routes, 21 targets, 14-110-1, 7.3 ADoT
With Nacua out of the picture, Kupp is almost sure to lead the week in targets, and that makes him a stone lock for me.
To look at the full picture here last week from Rams pass catchers:
Kupp: 74 snaps, 51 routes, 21 tgt, 14-110-1, 7.3 ADoT
Robinson: 68 snaps, 47 routes, 7 tgt, 4-42-0, 11.0 ADoT
Parkinson: 65 snaps, 42 routes, 5 tgt, 4-47-0, 2.2 ADoT
Johnson: 49 snaps, 33 routes, 7 tgt, 5-79-0, 4.4 ADoTTyler Johnson ($3,300) is another cheap WR option for us. He has been in the league in 2020 and was on Tampa Bay until last year. He barely saw the field in 2023, but he’s in for an elevated role now. His 21.2% Tgt/Route was third-best on the team behidn Kupp and Nacua. I know that I’m playing Kupp, and I might have Kyren as well, so I don’t know if I want to go to Johnson - but he’s a very nice play if you need a price tag this cheap.
Demarcus Robinson ($4,000) is also cheap and saw seven targets last week, and the ADoT was up there. He’s been around so long and has been in solid roles before, and has never been able to do much with them. So I think I’ll take a pass on him. I’d prefer Johnson.
On the Cardinals side:
Harrison Jr: 54 snaps, 36 routes, 3 tgt, 1-4-0 , 1.3 ADoT
McBride: 51 snaps, 35 routes, 9 tgt, 5-30-0, 8.3 ADoT
Wilson: 48 snaps, 35 routes, 2 tgt, 1-5-1, 15.0 ADoT
Dortch: 37 snaps, 826 routes, 8 tgt, 6-47-0, 8.9 ADoTThere is a lot of talk about the Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,900) week one bust. He’ll probably be fine, but we can’t touch him in this spot. Greg Dortch ($4,600) led the wide receivers with his eight targets and led the team with a 31% Tgt/Route. Trey McBride ($6,000) was a focal point with those nine targets a high 26.5% Tgt/Route, and the ADoT was pretty decent as well.
If I’m playing anybody here, it’s probably going to be McBride, but I’m not sure any of these prices fit the build I’m going for.
Recap/Targets
The Rams are one of the most concentrated offenses in the league year-in and year-out, and there were no signs of that changing last week. Cooper Kupp is a lock, Kyren Williams is a top RB play, and Tyler Johnson works as a value play. Playing three guys from the same team is putting a lot of eggs in the same basket, but it’s not the worst thing in the world for floor. If the Rams do score a bunch of points, that trio of players should work out just fine in aggregate - but pulling the trigger three times does lower the ceiling. It’s a zero-sum game on offense.
Trey McBride is probably the best tight on the slate in terms of raw projection, but I don’t know if the right move is to pay up at the position. I think Kyler Murray is in the conversation at QB, but overall the prices just aren’t really working for me on the Arizona side.
Bengals @ Chiefs
Total: 48
Moneyline: Chiefs -258
Spread: Chiefs -6
Game Environment
This is a nice total, but it’s leaning heavily in favor of the Chiefs. We have seen this matchup in the AFC Championship game twice recently, so this is a good one on paper. However, the Bengals come in pretty banged up and the Chiefs are looking as good as they ever have.
The Bengals had the highest PROE of week one at 9%, and the Chiefs were second at 3%. If that means anything at all, we’re looking at two offenses that want to throw the ball as much as anybody. That’s a recipe for a bunch of fantasy points to be scored, so we need to give this one a full look.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow ($6,300) is pretty easy to pass up on right now. He’s not a runner, so you’re always relying on a big yardage and touchdown game from him. That could happen here, but it’s less likely with Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) still getting warmed up and Tee Higgins ($5,900) almost surely out again.
That leaves Patrick Mahomes ($7,000). As good as he is in real life, he’s not the best for our type of lineup build. He doesn’t run much (in the regular season, at least), and he’s always very expensive. He’ll have big games this year, no doubt, and this is a good spot for him, but I’d rather either find the cash for Lamar, or drop down in to the $5K-$6K range, especially because there is the chance that the Chiefs just run away with this one.
Running Backs
We already mentioned that neither of these teams is excited to run the ball, so we’re probably not looking much into these backfields.
Chiefs Backfield, Week One
Pacheco: 40 snaps, 22 routes, 15-45-1 rushing, 2-33-0 receiving (3 tgt)
Perine: 8 snaps, 8 routes, 0-0-0 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving
Steele: 4 snaps, 1 route, 2-3-0 rushing, 0-0-0 receivingIt’s Isiah Pacheco ($6,900) or nobody, but… probably nobody.
Bengals Backfield, Week One
Moss: 31 snaps, 17 routes, 9-44-1 rushing, 2-17-0 receiving (4 tgt)
Brown: 16 snaps, 13 routes, 3-11-0 rushing, 3-12-0 receiving, (3 tgt)Zack Moss ($5,600) carried the load, but even that turned into just 11 touches. It doesn’t seem like he’s likely to go for a ton of targets from Burrow even if they do fall behind, but I could be wrong. It’s too much of a risk to pull the trigger in a single-lineup situation. I’d include him on a game-stack here, but that’s not what we’re doing!
Pass Catchers
Here’s where things get very interesting.
Chiefs, Week One:
Kelce: 44 snaps, 26 routes, 4 tgt, 3-34-0, 6.8 ADoT
Rice: 38 snaps, 24 routes, 9 tgt, 7-103-0, 5.3 ADoT
Worthy: 31 snaps, 24 routes, 3 tgt, 2-47-1, 12.3 ADoT
Gray: 28 snaps, 10 routes, 3-37-0, 7.0 ADoT
Watson: 26 snaps, 16 routes, 1-25-0, 15 ADoTThe top play is obviously Rashee Rice ($6,700). He was awesome in week one. He earned a 37.5% target/route and posted the third-highest yards/route in the league at 4.29. It would seem that he’s on his way to being priced with the big boys, but he’s not there yet - making him a priority play for us this week.
Xavier Worthy ($6,100) had a huge first game, scoring 20.8 DraftKings points on just three touches. He ran for a 21-yard touchdown and caught another 35-yarder. That’s efficiency! I just think the price has come up way too much given that double-tuddy. I know how fast he is, but I can’t pay $6,100 for a guy that had all of three touches last week.
Travis Kelce ($6,200) is still probably over-priced. He was on the field a lot last week, but he showed us how low his floor is these days with that weak 3-34-0 result.
Bengals, Week One:
Chase: 40 snaps, 31 routes, 6 tgt, 6-62-0, 6.3 ADoT
Iosivas: 48 snaps, 35 routes, 6 tgt, 3-26-0, 7.5 ADoT
Gesicki: 17 snaps, 16 routes, 4 tgt, 3-18-0, 7.0 ADoTThe Bengals are pretty simple through the air. Burrow leans heavily on his top two wideouts, and that didn’t change even with Andre Iosivas ($3,800) filling in for Higgins. Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) had a decent yardage game even while only playing 83% of the snaps. You would think he’d get above 90% with the snap share, and he’s clearly the best player on the offense by a good margin - but with Rice and Kupp on the slate, I’m not going to Chase. Iosivas is absolutely a guy I want to play again, assuming Higgins is out again. The result wasn’t there last week, but I will take six targets and 45 air yards every single time for that price.
Recap/Targets
There are two plays here that I imagine will end up in my single line. Those being Rashee Rice ($6,700) and Andrei Iosivas ($3,800).
Steelers @ Broncos
Total: 36.5
Moneyline: Steelers -162
Spread: Steelers -3
Game Environment
You very rarely see a total of 36.5. But that’s what we get here with two bad offenses squaring off.
The Steelers went for a 46% pass rate last year with Fields under center, the second-lowest in the league, and their -14% Pass% OE was by the far the lowest. They are not trying to throw the ball, at least not with Fields as the QB. That put them 27th in pace.
The Broncos were also negative in the Pass% OE at -404%, but they did play at the tenth-fastest pace.
Both offenses are inept. The advantage on defense clearly goes to Pittsburgh, and that’s why we see them here as a field goal favorite on the road.
This is one of the worst game environments you’ll come across for DFS, so this should be relatively quick.
Quarterbacks
The one play that could be interesting is Justin Fields $5,400. As I write this, it’s not sure that he will be the starter - but we’re leaning that way. He did not have a good day for fantasy in week one (11.9 points), but we do know the upside he posseses. He ran for 57 yards on 14 attempts and did put up a 74% completion rate on his 23 attempts. The deep ball is a part of his game, and he had a couple of deep completion called back to penalties.
The matchup is pretty decent as well against a Broncos defense that gave up a high 7.5 yards per pass attempt last year. Unlike Malik Willis, there’s definite upside here.
Running Backs
There was not much of a split in the Pittsburgh backfield last week with Najee Harris ($5,500) taking 20 carries and two targets on 38 snaps. Jaylen Warren ($5,400) played just 19 snaps and saw two carries and two targets. Maybe they were easing him after an injury, but either way - there’s no way we can consider anybody here.
On the Broncos side, we saw a real split.
McLaughlin: 10-27-0, 5-1-0
Williams: 8-23-0, 1-0-0
That’s a positive sign for Jordan McLaughlin ($4,500) moving forward, but clearly not a guy we consider now. If one of those RBs goes down at some point, the other one would be a consideration - but not this week!
Pass Catchers
Broncos Tgt/ADoT Week One:
Sutton 12/13.6
Reynolds 8/9.1
Vele 8/2.1
McLaughin 5/-4.2
Dulcich 3/8
Williams 1/0.5
Burton 1/2.0
Courtland Sutton ($5,400) is the guy here, but Bo Nix went 26-42 with a 3.29 yards per attempt in his first start, so he would not appear ready to get the ball to Sutton enough for it to matter.
Steelers Tgt/ADoT Week One:
Pickens 7/14.1
Freiermuth 4/3.0
Jefferson 2/2
Harris 2/-1
Pruitt 2/5.5
Warren 2/-2
Austin 1/11
Washington 1/4
George Pickens ($5,800) will probably have some big games, but he will never fit the type of lineup we’re trying to build here.
Recap/Targets
I will put Justin Fields at the bottom of my QB list for $5,400, but that’s the only play I’ll come anywhere close to.
I have done it again! It took parts of three days, but it’s done now, and I really enjoyed it once again. The player pool is much bigger this week, so we’ve got some whittling down to do. I put players on this list as I go. And as I see more and more players, some of the earlier guys that made the list become less interesting. I’ve pointed those names out with a strikethrough. Those are plays I think are fine but are clearly not as good as the others.
The paywall is moving up a bit this week, and it will continue to move up as the season progresses. Free readers get all of the game write-ups this week, but next week, you’ll get less. Subscribe today to see the player pool and get access to everything else I do here.