Week 4 NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
A breakdown of the upcoming Sunday NFL DFS slate, with an emphasis on putting together a single high-floor lineup on DraftKings.
Sunday Update
It’s been a huge week for injury updates. I can’t cover them all, but three things have altered my lineup.
Trey McBride OUT
The guy I missed here was the backup tight end Elijah Higgins ($3,100). He used to be a wide receiver, but now he’s a tight end. I would say that is enough to say that he’s a good pass catcher, and he’ll step directly into this McBride role. I prefer him to Tremble as the cheap option.
Davante Adams OUT
I didn’t really want to play a Raider against the Browns even with all of these routes and targets opening up. I think the Raiders probably just completely suck today, but I can’t deny the Tre Tucker ($3,600) spot. He’ll be out there all day, and you’d have to think that there’s at least a handful of targets for him. He should be at least $5,500 with this role, so we can put him in there.
Deebo Samuel IN
I had Aiyuk prior to this, but now he’s unplayable.
Those three things made a difference on my lineup. Other plays that are upgraded with the injuries:
Najee Harris (Jaylen Warren out)
Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell (Smith & Brown out)
Progress Update
Check out the week three lineup review for the full breakdown, but so far we’ve had one huge positive week and two weeks close to even that offset each other.
All of the resources are updated for week four. The links can be found at the bottom of this post below the paywall. That means
→ NFL Analysis Tableau Dashboard
→ Player Prop Betting Analysis Sheet
→ Weekly Projections
→ Weekly Ranks
Quick Links
These will show up after the initial publishing, this post is best read in a web browser on tablet or PC.
Slate Overview
For game totals, we have a slow drip downward rather than a cluster of games at the top.
ARI/WAS: 50
CIN/CAR: 47
HOU/JAX: 45.5
PHI/TAM: 44
It goes like that the whole way down to CLE/LV at 37.
The key to this week is going to be exploiting injuries. There are a few significant names already ruled out this week, and there will be at least a few more that we’ll learn about Friday-Sunday. That’s good news for us, since it opens up great plays that we’ll ram in by some others miss them. But it’s bad news for this article, since so much of the needed information will come out after I publish it.
I’ll also be traveling this weekend, so I doubt I’ll have time to make an update. But I’m going to start doing more NFL DFS stuff on Twitter, so you can keep an eye out for me there. Let’s get into it.
Steelers vs. Colts
Game Environment
OU: 40
Spread: Colts -1The Colts have played at the third-fastest pace in the league, and the Steelers have played at the sixth-slowest. That is generally bad for the Colts and good for the Steelers as far as DFS plays go.
The Steelers defense has been spectacular to start the year. They’ve allowed just 160 DraftKings points, the fewest in the league. They’ve allowed just 4.3 yards per play and have been tough against both runners and throwers.
The Colts have allowed 286 DraftKings points, the fifth-most in the league. In the yardage-per-play ranks, they’re about average against both the run and the pass.
So we can probably scratch off the Colts entirely. The Steelers are not a fantasy-friendly offense, but this is an elevated spot for them, so it might be worth checking on.
Quarterbacks
It seemed like Justin Fields ($5,500) would be an appealing DFS play after he started the year as the starter. And while the Steelers are 3-0, Fields has had just one useful DFS game, scoring fewer than a dozen points in his first two weeks before his better total of 19 last week.
I think Fields will make the first version of the list. I just wish there was more of a rushing floor. So far this year with his legs:
→ Week 1: 14-57-0
→ Week 2: 8-27-0
→ Week 3: 6-6-1He would not have had a good fantasy game without that touchdown run. He has a higher floor than some other QBs given the rushing, but the fact that he has just 33 rushing yards in these last two games does make you question it.
This is the first game I’m writing up, so there’s a long way to go in seeing how the quarterback position shakes out this week, but for now, Fields is in consideration.
Running Backs
Najee Harris ($5,600) has taken the bulk of the load so far with 55 attempts and seven catches to Jaylen Warren’s ($5,100) 14 rushes and five catches. But Najee has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry with 7-30-0 through the air in three games, so we can’t play him. Warren would be in play at this price if Harris were ever to miss a game, but that’s not happening now.
This is not a good matchup for Jonathan Taylor ($7,700) at all, and that price makes him an incredibly easy fade, but he did show us that ceiling last week with his big 23-110-2 line.
Both backfields are easy to ignore.
Pass Catchers
The Steelers have just 71 total targets in three games. Pretty much everybody here has a floor of zero, so we won’t be going to them anytime soon.
The Colts’ situation is even worse, with just 68 targets so far this year. Neither quarterback can be relied upon to get a pass catcher the ball at the volume we need, so this is easy to skip past.
Recap/Targets
The only possible play I can see is Justin Fields $5,500.
Vikings vs. Packers
Game Environment
OU: 43.5
Spread: Packers -2.5This is the last game I’m writing as the Jordan Love news is so pivotal, and we still don’t know it. The Packers are a wildly different team depending on who the QB is.
Week 1 →→→ 64% Pass%, 0% PROE
Weeks 2-3 → 34% Pass%, -23% PROEThe most likely outcome seems to be that Love plays, so I’ll take that as my primary assumption.
The Vikings have a higher 1% PROE while playing at the 20th-fastest pace on their way to 3-0. They’ve been awesome. This will be a very fun game to watch - there are a lot of good storylines going on here.
Quarterbacks
If Jordan Love plays, this game is much more interesting for DFS purposes. That doesn’t mean we’ll consider playing Love (although his price is down to $6,000 after opening at $6,400), but it does mean there will likely be more points to go around all across the game.
Sam Darnold ($5,700) has been great, but better in real life than in fantasy. He’s scored 14.6, 19.9, and 23.2 points. Those last two point totals have worked for fantasy, but this week, there are clearly better plays. Darnold would benefit from Love playing, so keep that in mind if you’re building a ton of lineups - but I’m not going to Darnold here.
Running Backs
I don’t think this will continue to be a thing, but last week Emanuel Wilson had one less touch than Josh Jacobs ($6,600). I cannot imagine that the Packers signed Jacobs to put him in a split this early with a guy like Wilson, but it’s enough to take us off of him for fantasy purposes.
Aaron Jones ($6,400) has 54 touches this year (42 rushes, 12 catches). He hasn’t played a ton of snaps, but they want him to have the ball, so we can feel pretty good about 15+ touches every week. He has 12 targets in these last two weeks, so it’s a pretty nice role for him. He’s another guy that would be a much better play if Love is in, but I don’t know about the $6,400 price for Jones on this particular slate. There are preferred options above and below him. I’m going to put him at the bottom of the list for now, because he does have a pretty nice floor and decent ceiling if Love is in there.
Pass Catchers
If Love plays, there’s potential for some plays in the Packers receiver room. They have very little as a group with Willis at QB, and the Packers pass attempt projection would go up a ton with Love back. Here’s how it looked in week one when Love was healthy:
→ Doubs: 33 routes, 7 targets
→ Kraft: 29 routes, 3 targets
→ Reed: 27 routes, 6 targets
→ Watson: 27 routes, 5 targets
→ Wicks: 16 routes, 3 targetsChristian Watson ($5,000) isn’t a terrible value at the price with Love back, but it looks like things are just too spread out here for us to put faith in. I’ll be out on this no matter what.
Justin Jefferson ($8,700) is the slate’s most expensive player. He has a 29% target share, a 47% air yard share, a 26% TPRR, and 62.3 fantasy points through three games. He has scored a touchdown in each game, and that’s really been the key since he has averaged just 91 yards per game. We would need multiple scores or a crazy shootout game for Jefferson to be a buy we “have to have”, so I once again do not think that’s the proper use of our money on this slate.
Recap/Targets
I think this game will churn out a couple of strong fantasy days, but I can’t narrow it down enough to get any guys into my lineup. This game looks like a pass.
Rams vs. Bears
Game Environment
OU: 41
Spread: Bears -2.5The Rams have played fast so far this year, ranking sixth in pace. The Bears are ranked right above them at fifth. The Rams have averaged 5.0 yards per play. That number is right at the league average. The Bears have been awful on that front at 3.6. They had a decent fantasy week overall last week, but that was entirely due to the absurd 88 plays they ran.
Defensively, the Rams have been brutalized thus far. They’ve given up a league-worst 6.4 yards per play (5.1 yards per rush, 9.5 yards per pass attempt). Some of that is because they’ve played a tough schedule so far (Detroit, Arizona, San Francisco), but it’s a bad sign nonetheless.
The Bears have held their own defensively, allowing just 4.8 yards per play allowed. Quarterbacks have had some trouble (although they have faced Richardson & Levis for two of their games). Running backs have averaged a pretty high 4.5 yards per carry.
The conclusion is that there is no reason to fade a player just because of the matchup in this spot.
Quarterbacks
It took Caleb Williams ($5,600) 52 pass attempts to bag his first 20-point fantasy game. He threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns. That’s still just 7.0 yards per attempt, and his 5.3 yards per attempt this season is fourth-worst behind Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson, and Bo Nix. He also hasn’t run much, with 11-67-0 on the ground through three games. It could be a fast-paced game, but there are too many bad signs to consider it.
Matthew Stafford ($5,600) is hard to play even when he has all of his weapons due to the lack of mobility, and he has gone for just 216 and 221 yards passing in these last two games after the injuries started dropping. I’m looking to play a cheap QB, but he’s not in consideration.
Running Backs
I can’t go near D’Andre Swift ($5,500) and his 1.8 years per carry.
Kyren Williams ($7,300) is certainly in play again. He has dominated the snaps all season long. He’s played 87% of the snaps for the Rams with 63 of the 76 RB touches so far. The yardage hasn’t been huge (50, 25, 89), but even without a big day on the ground, he has scored 14.4, 15.2, and 31.6 fantasy points. With Kupp and Nacua gone, he’s the guy they want to have the ball close to the goal line, and he showed that last week with three total touchdowns.
His ceiling would seem to be a little more touchdown-dependent than we would like, but he is among the league leaders in projected touches, and that matters a great deal. Sign me up.
Pass Catchers
It will be interesting to see if the Bears garner ownership this week after they piled up the yardage last week and now get the matchup against the Rams soft defense. Rome Odunze ($5,200) had the big game for the Bears and remains pretty cheap. He has benefited from the absence of Keenan Allen. Here’s Odunze’s quick game log:
→ Week 1: 41/53 snaps, 28 routes, 4 targets
→ Week 2: 62/66 snaps, 45 routes, 5 targets
→ Week 3: 83/84 snaps, 55 routes, 11 targetsYou can see there how crazy the Bears play count was last week. They will almost certainly come back down on that front and Odunze and company will be back in the 40-route range. The share data over these last two weeks without Keenan:
→ DJ Moore ($6,700): 24% Target Share, 26% Air Yard Share
→ Rome Odunze ($5,200): 19% Target Share, 41% Air Yard Share
→ Cole Kmet ($4,400): 19% Target Share, 18% Air Yard ShareThe Bears red zone targets: Kmet (4), Moore (3), Odunze (2), Carter (2), Herbert (1), Swift (1)
I think Odunze is in play if Keenan remains out, but I don’t think I’ll get to the place where I have enough faith in Caleb Williams to make the play. The better play might be Kmet, who has seen elevated usage with Allen out and has been in Williams’ sights close to the end zone. I’ll add them both to the initial list.
Rams data from last week without Kupp and Nacua:
→ Robinson: 27 routes, 4 targets
→ Parkinson: 26 routes, 5 targets
→ Atwell: 24 routes, 5 targets
→ Williams: 22 routes, 2 targets
→ Johnson: 14 routes, 4 targets
→ Whittington: 11 routes, 3 targetsIt is too spread out to have any priority list-makers, but I’m still thinking that Colby Parkinson ($3,700) is a viable salary saver at tight end. He has been out there a ton, and has two games now with five targets. It’s yet to turn into double-digit fantasy points, but at this price you really just need a 5-50-0 or a touchdown to make it a worthwhile selection.
Recap/Targets
The game environment is potentially quite good. But neither offense is trustworthy enough to justify loading up on this game. The best play is clearly Kyren Williams ($7,300) with his elite usage. He is expensive, but he’s a tier below the most pricey running backs.
And the two tight ends will make the list as salary-saving options. That’s Colby Parkinson ($3,700) and Cole Kmet ($4,400).
Broncos vs. Jets
Game Environment
OU: 38.5
Spread: Jets -7The Jets have played slow (27th in pace), but do have a higher PROE at 0% (only seven teams are positive in that metric so far). Denver is one of those teams above 0% at 1.1%, and they’ve played at the 11th-fastest pace so far.
The Jets defense has allowed a strong 4.4 yards per play, and Denver has been even better at 4.2.
The 38.5 total tells you a lot. Despite the fact that both teams are willing to throw it, this game is unlikely to turn into a slugfest.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers ($6,200) remains a better real-life QB than fantasy QB. He has a nice 5:1 TD:INT ratio and a +0.25 average EPA, but has averaged just 15 DraftKings points so far, and that’s not going to work for $6,200.
Bo Nix ($5,100) had his first decent game last week with 19 DraftKings points. That was bolstered by a rushing touchdown. For the year, he has just 600 passing yards and a 5.3 yards per attempt with 107 total rushing yards, so he’s not in consideration against this tough Jets defense.
Running Backs
Breece Hall ($7,800) is one of these floor/ceiling backs we will consider most weeks. He has at least 18 DraftKings points in each of his first three games and has a really nice 16-120-1 line through the air. The problem is that Braelon Allen ($5,400) is playing a lot.
→ Hall Snaps: 22-21-25
→ Allen Snaps: 8-20-21→ Hall carries: 17-14-16
→ Allen carries: 1-7-11Hall has just 60% of the running back carries these last two weeks. The Jets are expected to control this game. That certainly could mean a huge first half from Hall to get them ahead, but it would then also mean another pretty even split of the work. I don’t think I can quite get to $7,800 for Hall in this spot.
The Broncos backfield is an easy one to avoid. Williams leads the team in carries with 24. That’s eight per game - you cannot touch that.
Pass Catchers
Garrett Wilson ($6,900) has a team-leading 26 targets and 150 yards through three games. He has a strong 28% target share and a high 26% TPRR (targets per route run). He’s going to have some very big games this year. I don’t think he’s an auto-fade, but I also don’t view this as the optimal time to play him. I’m really trying to build a lineup full of mispriced players. I can’t say Wilson is mispriced. Nothing has changed in the Jets context, and this is far from a fantastic game environment. That said, the floor is very nice, so he’s someone I wouldn’t hate being in the lineup if there’s just nothing else to do. I’ll tack him onto the end of the list for now.
Allen Lazard ($4,300) has had a good season so far (at least for a $4300 guy) with 11-148-3. He has just an 11% target share these last two games, and Mike Williams is seeing more and more action - so Lazard isn’t the proper play.
Tyler Conklin ($3,600) had a big game last week with 5-93-0 through the air. He’s been on the field a ton, but would seem to be option #4 for them, so I’d prefer one of the other cheap tight ends we’ve already talked about or will talk about later.
On the Broncos side, Courtland Sutton ($5,300) is the only guy we’ll look at. He has a high 25% target share and 24% TPRR. He might be a little bit too cheap for his skills and role, but we’re not going to use him against this tough Jets secondary. The ceiling is much too low, and the floor is lowered as well.
Recap/Targets
Breece Hall ($7,800) and Garrett Wilson ($6,900) are not horrible plays, I just don’t think we’ll use them since the prices are right (and with Hall it might even be a bit high).
They’ll both go on the list “just in case”, but I don’t see using either of them.
Bengals vs. Panthers
Game Environment
OU: 48.5
Spread: Bengals -4.5The Bengals are 0-3 and will be looking to make a statement against the Panthers. They rank first in the league in PROE at 7.3% and have played at the 17th-fastest pace.
The Panthers are a whole different team now with Andy Dalton. Last week they threw it 61% of the time for +6% PROE. This is a big total and a surprisingly tight spread. It is certainly one of the best games to attack, so let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow ($6,600) has played well with a +0.14 EPA and a 7.2 yards per attempt, and that was with limited weaponry the first two weeks. Higgins and Chase are both back into their normal roles, so we should evaluate the Bengals based on that.
In week three, Burrow ripped off 324 yards and three touchdowns on 39 attempts against the Commanders defense. He gets another soft defense in Carolina. That Panthers defense has allowed this to opposing QBs:
→ Derek Carr: 8.7 YPA, 200 yards, 3:0 TD:INT
→ Justin Herbert: 6.5 YPA, 130 yards, 2:1 TD:INT
→ Minshew/O’Connell: 7.2 YPA, 296 yards, 2:1 TD:INTThe yardage wasn’t there for Carr or Herbert because of how out of hand the game got. That’s much less likely to happen with Andy Dalton playing QB for the Panthers.
Burrow has thrown it 29, 36, and 39 times so far. He’s one of the most reliable volume options, and the ceiling is stretched upward with Higgins and Chase fully back. The rushing isn’t there, but I love the floor on him. He’s making the list without a doubt.
Andy Dalton ($5,300) gets the REVENGE GAME, although I’m sure he’s over all of that by now. He went out and threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns last week, making this $5,300 price tag very appealing. I’m guessing he’ll be pretty popular. It could certainly turn out that last week was a flash in the pan and he goes back to 10-15 points, but even that isn’t the worst thing in the world for $5,300. This is a good matchup, and a great price. He’s on the list for sure, but I’ll be interested to see what other experts say about him as a cash play.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard ($5,700) had a huge week three with 21-114-0 on the ground and 5-55-1 through the air. For the season, he has played 58% of the snaps and seen 58% of the RB carries. We have Miles Sanders ($5,000) taking some work away from him, but Dalton was liking the dump-offs last week with five targets going to Hubbard and two more to Sanders. Hubbard earned a target on five of his 12 routes (42%). Hubbard does have the most redzone carries for the Panthers, but Sanders has seen a couple of touches inside the ten, so it’s not 100% that Hubbard would be the pound-it-in guy.
The Hubbard play feels a little bit point-chasey, but it’s a pretty appealing play.
The Panthers do offer us the situation we’re looking to exploit - where something in the team context changes and the prices don’t catch up right away. This is a much different team with Dalton at QB, and it will take at least another week for all of the price tags to adjust properly. We’ll be into some Panthers this week. Hubbard makes the list.
Zack Moss ($5,900) is on the other side. He had a big game on Monday night with 12-58-1 on the ground and 5-39-0 through the air. He has just 11 targets this year and 69 receiving yards. We’ve seen Burrow really lock into his two wideouts, so I’d expect mostly that this week. Moss isn’t an awful play, but there are going to be better plays around the same price.
Pass Catchers
Let’s start with the Panthers. Here’s how the pass catcher data shook out for them in week three:
→ Diontae Johnson ($5,600): 54 snaps, 37 routes, 14 targets
→ Tommy Tremble ($2,700): 60 snaps, 30 routes, 3 targets
→ Jonathan Mingo ($3,300): 46 snaps, 28 routes 4 targetsJohnson had the huge game with an elite 38% TPRR to go with his 8-122-1 line through the air. He has always been one of the game’s best target-earners, but has not had competent QB play in quite some time. We saw what he was capable of last week. The price did come up $700. The question is - is that enough? For our purposes, I would say no. What we’re really looking for in these lineup builds is targets, and Johnson can be reliably projected for 7+ targets in a positive game environment where they might be sped up by the Bengals strong pass attack. I think I’m going back to the well.
Tremble is your punt tight end of the week. Three targets isn’t what we’re looking for, but that’s a lot of routes run for a guy at $2,700.
The Bengals side also offers strong plays. Here’s how they looked in week three:
→ Ja’Marr Chase ($7,700): 59 snaps, 41 routes, 7 targets, 6-118-2, 13.1 ADoT
→ Tee Higgins ($5,900): 54 snaps, 39 routes, 7 targets, 3-39-0, 9.0 ADoT
→ Andrei Iosivas ($4,100): 46 snaps, 33 routes, 7 targets, 5-52-1, 9.1 ADoTThe great Adam Levitan, who I learned most of this stuff from, has always pointed out that Higgins and Chase have very similar usages in games they play together. That was true last week as well, it’s just that Chase hit the big plays. It was a very good sign to see Higgins play a full array of snaps and earn seven targets in his first game, so we can say he’s back to 100%.
They’re both awesome plays, it’s just a question of which price is better. Normally, I’d see the $1800 price difference and much prefer Higgins, but Chase feels really cheap. The stud wideouts are typically priced in the $8500-$900 range, so he’s a tier below that.
I do imagine one of these two make it into my lineup. I’m not sure playing both is the optimal move, but it’s not out of the question either. I’ll add them both to the list and then let the rest of the lineup build make the final decision.
Recap/Targets
This seems like one of the best setups of the season so far. There’s so much to love.
→ Ja’Marr Chase $7,700)
→ Joe Burrow ($6,600)
→ Tee Higgins ($5,900)
→ Diontae Johnson ($5,600)
→ Andy Dalton ($5,300)
→ Tommy Tremble ($2,700)
Eagles vs. Bucs
Game Environment
OU: 45
Spread: Eagles -2.5This is another decent game environment that is worthy of a close look. The Eagles are in the top half of the league in PROE at -2.9%, and they’ve played at the 14th-fastest pace. The Bucs sit at a 0% PROE%, but they’ve played slow (29th in pace).
The Eagles have not been good defensively thus far at a 5.7 yards per play allowed (sixth-worst). The Bucs aren’t far behind them at 5.4 (10th-worst). The Eagles have been thrashed on the ground with a 5.1 yards per carry allowed, and the Bucs are around there too at 4.9.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($7,200) busted pretty hard last week at decent ownership, scoring just 14 fantasy points on 311 passing yards. That’s what happens when you don’t score a touchdown. Hurts going without a touchdown is rare, but it’s clearly going to be more common with Barkley in town. The Bucs are best attacked on the ground, and there are a ton of QBs to like that are much cheaper than Hurts, so we’re not going there.
Baker Mayfield ($6,400) is not in play with Burrow being in a better spot for around the same price, and with the cheap guys we’ve already found.
Running Backs
One of the big questions on this slate will be whether or not we want to fit in Saquon Barkley ($8,000). The price started at $7,000, so we are really buying high if we do it. This year:
→ Week 1: 24-209-2 rushing, 2-23-1 receiving (25 routes, 2 targets)
→ Week 2: 23-95-0 rushing, 4-21-0 receiving (28 routes, 5 targets)
→ Week 3: 18-147-2 rushing, 4-9-0 receiving (32 routes, 4 targets)While the Bucs run defense looks bad on paper, a lot of that high yards per carry was done by Jayden Daniels, so it’s not exactly a perfect comparison. Jahmyr Gibbs went 13-84 (6.5 YPC) against them, Brian Robinson went 12-40 (3.3 YPC), and David Montgomery went 11-35 (3.2 YPC).
It’s a tough decision Barkley. The usage is strong, the game environment is nice, but the price is just so high. I will continue to point out that the presence of Hurts’ does hurt Barkley’s touchdown projection. Inside the five yard line so far, Barkley has five carries and Hurts has two. In one-yard-to-go situations, Hurts has seven carries to Barkley’s six. Hurts has already taken one touchdown from him, and there will be certainly be more.
The passing role is there for Barkley, but it’s not through the roof. We aren’t looking at a CMC type back that we get 5+ targets from every single week.
I think it’s fine, but I don’t think it’s quite the right play. There are just too many paths to failure at this price tag. I’ll put him on the list. Maybe some crazy value will pop up and we’ll have oodles of money to spend. That would change things, but for now I’m not too into it.
On the Bucs side, it’s pretty easy to ignore the whole situation. Bucky Irving ($5,300) has eaten into Rachaad White ($6,000) role. Irving took 9 carries last week to White’s six. White was targeted six times in the passing games, but went just 5-18-0. It’s too much of a split to consider it.
Pass Catchers
We could have some huge value on the Eagles side as both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both questionable. Last week for the Philly pass catchers:
→ Dotson: 40 routes, 3 targets
→ Goedert: 40 routes, 11 targets
→ Smith: 36 routes, 10 targets
→ Barkley: 32 routes, 4 targets
→ Campbell: 27 routes, 2 targets
→ Wilson: 14 routes, 2 targetsAside from Barkley’s huge game, it was the Goedert and Smith show. And Smith missed the end of the game, and at that point it was the Goedert show.
If they both miss: Dallas Goedert ($5,100) is a very strong play. Jahan Dotson ($5,000) would also be in the mix, but he doesn’t seem like he’s very good so it would remain a risky play. Parris Campbell ($3,000) would become a viable punt play. But I’d mostly be into Goedert + Barkley.
If just Brown misses: DeVonta Smith ($7,100) is in play, as well as Goedert, but I’d probably prefer a cheap tight end.If they both play, I think it’s too messy to touch. Pretty much everybody would end up being overpriced with a fully healthy team.
On the Bucs side, it’s the same old story. The season update:
→ Godwin: 25 targets, 21-253-3, 6.7 ADoT, 29% TPRR
→ Evans: 15 targets, 10-120-2, 9.1 ADoT, 17% TPRRChris Godwin ($6,800) is up $1,000 since week one. That price has probably been made right, so he’s not going to be a priority play this week. However, the floor is excellent. He has 8, 8, and 9 targets this year with a touchdown in each game. I will put him on the list, but he’s not really meeting the requirements I like to focus on. He’s at the same price as Garrett Wilson, and I think I’d lean toward Wilson pretty easily there.
Recap/Targets
This all depends on the Eagles injury report, so I’ll update this section later. I know that Godwin will make the bottom of the list, and if Brown and/or Smith are ruled out, some Eagles will be on the list as well.
Saints vs. Falcons
Game Environment
OU: 43.5
Spread: Falcons -1.5The Saints have been run-heavy with a -11% PROE, and they’ve played slow so far, ranked 31st in pace. That is with those first two weeks being blowouts in their favor.
The Falcons are at a -9% PROE, but playing at the second-fastest pace. while being a bit above average offensively.
It’s hard to know who either team is. The Saints had those two huge games to begin the year (5.7 yards/play in week one, 7.7 in week two), but flamed out last week (4.1) in their loss to Philadelphia. We do know where the ball is going there at least, so we can break this down.
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr ($5,900) goes up against a Falcons defense which has been pretty strong against the pass so far (6.0 yards per attempt allowed). The price is up $600 from where it started, there are many better options. I don’t think we’ll ever play Kirk Cousins ($5,800) with his lack of rushing and the Falcons run-heavy ways.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara ($7,600) is up another $100, but the price is basically justified given his ridiculous role. His 71 touches are tied with Jordan Mason for second-most in the league (to Saquon). He has 61 rushes (4.7 YPA) and 10 catches (13.2 YPC) with his five touchdowns. He did not score last week, but he still managed a decent 16 DraftKings points due to the workload. One of the reasons that I have been hesitant on him is the questions about red zone usage. But we can put that in the backseat, because he has six of the Saints’ eight carries inside of the 10 yard line this year, so Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill haven’t played much of a factor there (at least not yet).
The game total isn’t the best, but the workload is enough for Kamara to make it into our consideration. He has 15, 20, and 26 rushes this year with 5, 2, and 3 catches. The floor seems to be 15 points, and the ceiling is 40+ as we saw in week two.
Bijan Robinson ($7,400) has dominated the backfield work for Atlanta. Tyler Allgeier has played just 34 snaps all year with 20 total touches, while Bijan has 59 touches to lead the team. Running backs have averaged a strong 4.9 yards per carry against the Saints (that’s helped a lot by Barkley’s 8.2 last week), so this is not a spot to shy away from Robinson. I’m not saying he’s a definite play, but he’ll be one of the guys in the highest price range that I’ll consider.
Pass Catchers
The Saints pass catcher situation thus far:
→ Olave: 14 targets, 12-178-1, 11.9 ADoT
→ Shaheed: 14 targets, 7-169-2, 18.8 ADoT
→ Kamara: 11 targets, 10-132-1, 0.3 ADoT
→ Moreau: 6 targets, 5-45-1, 5.5 ADoTChris Olave ($6,500) is the main option despite Shaheed’s early season breakout. For the year, he and Shaheed are tied in targets, but last week we saw Olave grab six targets to Shaheed’s three. Shaheed ($5,500) is not the type of wide receiver we play when building for floor, but Olave certainly is. The problem is that Olave’s ceiling has been six targets so far and he has a pretty weak 22% TPRR. Given the game total, I don’t think this is the weak to go for Olave - but he’s one of those guys that will be on the list a lot this year because of his role.
On the Atlanta side, Cousins has been spreading the ball around.
→ London: 99% Snap%, 20 targets, 23% TPRR
→ Mooney: 96% Snap%, 18 targets, 20% TPRR
→ McLoud: 82% Snap%, 15 targets, 19% TPRR
→ Kyle Pitts: 78% Snap%, 12 targets, 16% TPRR
→ Robinson: 82% Snap%, 12 targets, 19% TPPRThat makes them all a tough sell, generally. Drake London ($6,200) is the alpha guy here. He has a much higher 28% TPRR if we get rid of week one, so Cousins has leaned on him more in the most recent two games. The floor/ceiling doesn’t feel quite where we’d like it to be, but he’s a good enough play to make the list, and then we’ll see where we end up.
Darnell Mooney ($4,400) shapes up to be a popular value play. He has run a route on every pass play so far and has 18 targets on the year with 15 of those coming these last two weeks. His 9.8 ADoT is right where we want it. If I’m not mistaken, he was primarily a deep ball guy in Chicago, so the early signs in Atlanta are that he’s a much better fantasy player now - and the price tag has not moved much at all from where it began ($4,200 in week one).
I’ll put him on the list. I still think the floor is very low, but this $4,400 unlocks a lot for us.
Recap/Targets
Four guys are going on the list from this game, but I don’t consider any of them a must-play. Nothing has changed in the team contexts this week where these prices are wrong. This is a list of four guys that are priced correctly, but have the floor that we’re looking for.
→ Alvin Kamara $7,600
→ Bijan Robinson $7,400
→ Chris Olave $6,400
→ Drake London $6,200
Jaguars vs. Texans
Game Environment
OU: 45
Spread: Texans -7The Texans have a -3% PROE while playing at the 19th-fastest pace. The Jaguars are at a -5% PROE and playing at the sixth-fastest pace after that smackdown last Monday in Buffalo.
That Bills came skews the data quite a bit, but basically the Jaguars defense rates out as below-average while the Texans have been pretty good (4.4 yards per play). The betting lines hugely favor the Texans here. I think I’d like to take the Jaguars +7 here.
Quarterbacks
Both of these quarterbacks will have their big games, but I can’t get behind either play. C.J. Stroud ($7,000) is too expensive, and Trevor Lawrence ($5,700) does not have the floor we need.
Running Backs
We had a popup spot last week with the Joe Mixon injury. His status is unclear for this week. There wasn’t a ton of work available for the Texans last week and their 63 team snaps, but Cam Akers ($5,300) was far from a usage monster, playing just 27 snaps and carrying the ball nine times. He’s off the list even if Mixon is out again.
Joe Mixon ($6,800) played 61% of the snaps in the first two weeks with 40 carries and six catches. His role is nice, and this matchup is a good one. I don’t love the price, though, especially without a clean bill of health. He’s only $600 cheaper than Bijan Robinson, so I don’t think I’d make that play.
There wasn’t much chance for Travis Etienne ($7,000) to get going last week, but he does have a nice role in this offense. He’s played 71% of the snaps and seen 36 carries carries and nine catches in three games. He brings a decent floor, but as a big underdog here with the Jaguars struggling a bit offensively, he’s not the play for us.
Pass Catchers
Texans update:
→ Collins: 163 snaps, 112 routes, 28 targets, 25% TPRR, 12.3 ADoT
→ Diggs: 160 snaps, 110 routes, 24 targets, 22% TPRR, 6.9 ADoT
→ Dell: 134 snaps, 105 routes, 17 targets, 16% TPRR, 11.5 ADoT
→ Shultz: 163 snaps, 102 routes, 11 targets, 11% TPRR, 7.6 ADoTNico Collins ($7,200) is clearly the guy here if you’re making a Texans play. His role is elite, and his ceiling is among the highest in the league. Stefon Diggs ($6,600) had the better game last week, but his role seems to be the short-yardage guy, so he’s too touchdown-dependent to justify this price tag.
It also looks like Tank Dell’s status is in question. He missed practice Wednesday. If he misses, that would be a slight boost to Collins and Diggs - and it would push Collins further up the list for my build.
There is a lot to like in the $7000-$8000 range this week, and given the presence of Diggs and Dell and Mixon, I don’t think Collins will be the best play here. But I’ll put him near the bottom of the list.
This isn’t a bad spot for the Jaguars pass attack, but they are pretty spread out this year. We have five players (Kirk, Thomas, Davis, Etienne, and Strange) with double-digit targets, and nobody has more than 17 (Kirk and Thomas both have 17). I really like the price on Christian Kirk ($5,200). He has seen 4, 3, and 10 targets this year. Lawrence went to him a lot last week while playing catch-up, so that could be the case again this week if the Texans pull ahead.
He’s a guy I’m willing to play if I need a WR in this price range. Brian Thomas ($5,400) also had a spike game in targets last week with nine. These two have been pretty much the same guy by the numbers this year, so I’ll prefer Kirk given the longer tracker record and the $200 savings.
Recap/Targets
I’m not locked into anything here, but the price tag on Christian Kirk ($5,200) might end up being very helpful to us, and it’s a reasonably good spot for him. I’ve also added Nico Collins ($7,200) to the list given his huge ceiling. He’s a better play if Mixon is out, but still a few steps behind the best plays on the slate like Ja’Marr Chase.
Patriots vs. 49ers
Game Environment
OU: 40
Spread: 49ers -10.5I’m a bit surprised to see the total this high. These are two of the slowest teams in the league. Both have reasonably good defenses, and the one competent offense here (the 49ers) are really banged up. I’m taking the under 40 here, so let’s say that first. I’ve found a few game bets I like so far, so I’ll throw a few bucks down this week and see how well it goes.
The 49ers have still had success offensively with a 5.8 yards per play that ranks ninth-best in the league. They’re at a -6% PROE, which isn’t all that low. If the over hits, it will be because the 49ers moved the ball well. The Patriots defense has held their own with a 5.1 yards per play allowed and a very strong 3.7 yards per carry. Deebo and CMC are still out, so there are potential plays on the 49ers.
Quarterbacks
The 49ers did reach their highest PROE of the year last week with Deebo and CMC both out. Brock Purdy ($6,100) threw it 30 times for 292 yards and three touchdowns; so he had himself a very nice game. I don’t think there’s any way we can consider him at a ten point favorite here. The Patriots are completely off the board, pretty much indefinitely.
Running Backs
The price on Jordan Mason ($6,700) is where it should be now. He played 51 of the 65 snaps last week and saw 21 more carries and two catches. He now has 71 touches on the year with 67 of those being carries. He’s averaged a strong 4.8 yards per carry and has scored two touchdowns.
But three things work against him.
The price is no longer wrong
This is not the easiest matchup
The lack of pass catching lowers his floor
I don’t think Mason is the right play this week.
Pass Catchers
49ers last week:
→ Jennings: 54 snaps, 34 routes, 12 targets, 35% TPRR, 12.4 ADoT
→ Aiyuk: 51 snaps, 34 routes, 10 targets, 29% TPPR, 9.9 ADoTThey were without George Kittle ($5,500) last week, so that concentrated 22 of the 30 team targets to those two. Jauan Jennings ($5,600) will be interesting this week. The price is up $1,500 from last week. I think you’ll see some people chase it again. And it’s not a ridiculous thing to do with that usage he saw last week. Two things are against him here, though. Kittle should return this week, and that was such an outlier performance. If you play that game 1,000 times, I doubt he catches three touchdowns more than a handful of times. Brandon Aiyuk ($6,400) is now just $800 more than Jennings, and a much better play if the last few years have taught us anything. Maybe he’s not quite at his best right now with his lower 20% TPRR on the year, but I feel better about him than Jennings or Kittle all things considered. The projections and what the other experts are saying will help me make the decision, but I’m adding Aiyuk and Aiyuk alone to the list.
Recap/Targets
This is subject to change, especially if Kittle it out again, but for now I’m only on Aiyuk from this game.
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Game Environment
OU: 50.5
Spread: Cardinals -3.5
Here is your highest O/U of the day. The Commanders have a -2% PROE, which is tenth-highest in the league. The Cardinals are at -3%. The Commanders have played very slow (30th in pace), and the Cardinals are in the middle of the pack. Let’s look at all of these plays.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($6,800) busted for us last week, so I’m mad at him. This is a great matchup again, though, with the total being above 50 and the Commanders having allowed eight yards per pass attempt this year, the fourth-highest mark in the league. The problem I see with him is that he’s run the ball just 15 times all year. He’s not playing as a rushing QB, so I think the price is too much on this particular slate.
The other side is more interesting with Jayden Daniels ($6,500) coming off one of the best QB games in recent memory. He went 21/23 for 254 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night while running for 39 yards and an additional touchdown. And because that game was on Monday Night, it’s not cooked into the price. His salary has gone: $5700, $6200, $6200, $6500. He’s probably a bit too cheap given his floor and ceiling in this matchup. He’ll go on the list.
Running Backs
James Conner ($6,500) is a decent play, but still probably not the type of ceiling I want at this price. He has 47 carries and five catches in three games with two touchdowns. The floor is nice with him, and there could certainly be multiple touchdowns here if the Cardinals move the ball in the way they’re expected to. He has all five of the Cardinals’ carries inside the ten yard line. We’re probably looking at 15-20 carries, a few catches, and a high likelihood for a score. I’ll put him on the list, right now he’s alone as a running back in this price range for guys I’m considering. If I can’t get up to the Kyren/Bijan tier, but want more than the Hubbard tier, Conner is right there for us.
One big piece of news that broke Wednesday was that Austin Ekeler will miss this game. That elevates the role for Brian Robinson ($6,100). Let’s take a look at the split of those two so far.
Week 1:
Robinson: 32 snaps, 12 rushes, 8 routes, 4 targets, 40 rush yds, 49 rec yds
……Ekeler: 28 snaps, 2 rushes, 17 routes, 4 targets, 10 rush yds, 52 rec ydsWeek 2:
Robinson: 41 snaps, 17 rushes, 20 routes, 3 targets, 133 rush yds, 3 rec yds
…..Ekeler: 30 snaps, 8 rushes, 15 routes, 3 targets, 38 rush yds, 47 rec ydsWeek 3:
Robinson: 43 snaps, 16 rushes, 19 routes, 1 target, 33 rush yds, 4 rec yds
……Ekeler: 13 snaps, 3 rushes, 7 routes, 2 targets, 35 rush yds, 22 rec ydsThere have been three touchdowns between the two, and Robinson has two of them.
Ekeler won’t absorb the whole Ekeler role, but he’s going to take a lot of it. That means we have a price generated from the assumption of 15-16 touches on a guy who now should be projected for 20. That’s an advantage for us, and it comes in the slate’s best game environment. Robinson is a fantastic play. Given the fact that Daniels has taken 10 of the team’s 25 red zone carries, I don’t think Robinson is a must-play, but I think there’s enough here to like that he’ll find his way into the lineup.
Pass Catchers
Cardinals:
→ Harrison Jr.: 143 snaps, 95 routes, 22 targets, 23% TPRR, 16.4 ADoT
→ McBride: 147 snaps, 84 routes, 21 targets, 25% TPRR, 8.8 ADoT
→ Dortch: 93 snaps, 67 routes, 16 targets, 24% TPRR, 9.3 ADoT
→ Wilson: 138 snaps, 69 routes, 13 targets, 15% TPRR, 9.2 ADoTIt’s more or less a three-man offense with Conner plus Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500) plus Trey McBride ($6,000). One wrinkle here is that there’s an outside shot that McBride misses this game. He’s in the concussion protocol. If he does miss, that would put Dortch ($4,300) and Wilson ($4,200) into consideration. So far, Dortch has been much better at earning targets - so he’d be my preferred play, but that’s only if McBride misses.
If everybody plays, I don’t really see any play to love here, the prices are all spot on if not a touch too high.
On the other side, Terry McLaurin ($5,800) had the big game on Monday Night with 100 yards and a score, but saw just six targets. Generally, the Commanders pass catchers can’t be trusted. There just aren’t enough attempts to go around. Nobody is going to project well here.
Recap/Targets
I like Jayden Daniels ($6,500) a lot for the price, and I’m also somewhat interested in James Conner ($6,500). If McBride is out, then I’m very much interested in Greg Dortch ($4,300).
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Game Environment
OU: 40
Spread: Chiefs -7
The Chiefs like to throw (1.8% PROE), and play at a moderate pace. Last week without Pacheco, their PROE went to 5%. So we should see them continue to throw the ball a bunch.
The Chargers have the second-lowest PROE in the league at -13%. Herbert is banged up again, and they just don’t have many weapons in the pass game. So they will run the ball for as long as the Chiefs allow them.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($7,100) is perpetually over-priced on DraftKings, and there’s no reason to play either Justin Herbert ($5,500) or Taylor Heinicke ($5,000) regardless of who is the starter. Pass.
Running Backs
The Chiefs last week without Pacheco:
→ Steele: 46 snaps, 17-72-0, 1-2-0
→ Perine: 26 snaps, 6-25-0, 3-15-0That’s a pretty decent workload for Carson Steele ($5,500), but Kareem Hunt ($5,200) will join the fray this week, which takes us off this backfield altogether.
J.K. Dobbins ($6,300) and Gus Edwards ($4,700) have largely split the work
→ Dobbins: 42 carries, seven catches
→ Edwards: 33 carries, one catchBut Dobbins has been the much more effective back with 7.4 yards per carry and having both touchdowns. Dobbins also took 75% of the carries last week, so the playing time trend has been in his favor.
The Chiefs have been tough on the run this year, giving up just 3.3 yards per carry while facing some pretty good running backs (Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson), but their defense is a bit banged up.
Dobbins at $6,300 at a seven point underdog isn’t the optimal play. I’d prefer Conner for just $200 more - but the playing time is moving in his direction, and he could also see a spike in the pass game usage here if they’re in catch-up mode. I don’t completely hate it, but we’ll see what the projections say.
Pass Catchers
It has been the Rashee Rice ($7,300) show for the Chiefs. Here’s his season so far:
→ 9 targets, 7-105-0, 20.3 points
→ 6 targets, 5-75-1, 18.5 points
→ 14 targets, 12-110-1, 32.1 pointsHe’s one of the top receivers in the league, and still is not quite priced like it. He’s on the list.
The Chargers are a big underdog here, so they could be throwing a good bit. Here’s how their pass catchers have worked out so far:
→ Quentin Johnston ($4,900): 117 snaps, 64 routes, 13 targets, 20% TPRR
→ Ladd McConkey ($4,800): 99 snaps, 59 routes, 17 targets, 29% TPRRThose are the big two. They have 49% of the targets and 70% of the air yards. They are also both pretty cheap. The separator has been the touchdowns, of which Johnston has three now. I think I’d prefer McConkey with the higher target rate. I’ll put them both on the list - one of them could end up making a good bit of sense in this price range.
Recap/Targets
I like Rashee Rice $7,300 once again. I think the price will eventually get pretty close to $8,000 - so it can still be considered a discount here. We’re just hoping that the Chargers can keep up for awhile, but even if they can’t - the Chiefs tend to throw the ball all game long and Rice is seemingly always open.
And we can “run it back” with one of these two cheap Chargers wideouts in McConkey $4,800 or Johnston $4,900. Dobbins and his elite efficiency is also making the list as a low-priority guy since the Chargers will want him to have the ball.
Browns vs. Raiders
Game Environment
OU: 38
Spread: Raiders -1This is the lowest total on the slate, and neither team is very fantasy-friendly in any context. So I’ll give myself a breather here, and just say there’s nothing in this game to worry about. Pass!
Player Pool
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