Week 3 NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
Week 3 NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
A breakdown of the upcoming Sunday NFL DFS slate, with an emphasis on putting together a single high-floor lineup on DraftKings.
Progress Update
We had a huge week one and then a very small profit in week one. Check out the lineup review here for more on how we’ve done so far.
All of the resources are updated for week two. The links can be found at the bottom of this post below the paywall. That means
→ NFL Analysis Tableau Dashboard
→ Player Prop Betting Analysis Sheet
→ Weekly Projections
→ Weekly Ranks
Quick Links
Slate Overview
There are three games above the rest here:
Lions vs. Cardinals
Saints vs. Eagles
Ravens vs. Saints
Going through each game shows us that this is a much more difficult slate than the first two we had. I can’t say there are more than one or two “lock button” plays, while last week, we almost had too many. It was hard to build a lineup that I didn’t feel really good about last week. So far this week, it’s been really tough to build one that I really like.
This week will be a real test for us. Ownership should be much more spread out, so we really have to get these picks right. I think there’s even more reason to build for floor here, since scores likely won’t be as high.
Off we go!
Giants vs. Browns
Game Environment
OU: 38.5
Spread: Browns -6.5Giants O: -7.3% PROE, 7th-fastest pace
Browns O: +1.9% PROE, 6th-fastest paceGiants D: 5.9 Yds/Play (27th), 8.2 Yds/Pass (27th), 5.3 Yds/Rush (28th)
Browns D: 4.9 Yds/Play (14th), 6.5 Yds/Pass (11th), 5.0 Yds/Rush (26th)It’s still too early to judge the defenses by these numbers, but I will start giving them for each team.
It’s a low total. The Browns are a pretty big favorite here, and neither side has a ton to love for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson ($5,500) & Daniel Jones ($5,300)
I have been writing up almost every section so far this year, but if I am going to maintain this for 18 weeks, I am going to have to make things a bit easier on myself.
If there is clearly not a play to consider, I will be just saying “pass”. And this is our first one.
Pass.
Running Backs
The Browns gave most of the work to Jerome Ford ($5,800) in week one, but last week, D’Onta Foreman ($4,400) played a role. Foreman out-carried Ford 14-7, although Ford was better with 64 yards. Neither guy is a game-breaking type even if given the full work, so the fact that there’s a split question here is enough to say pass.
And the Giants backfield is a much easier pass for us. Devin Singletary ($5,700) had a nice 16-95-1 against Washington, but now the Giants go from facing one of the worst defenses in the league to one of the best. Pass!
Pass Catchers
Malik Nabers ($6,400) is the play of interest in this game, although I’m guessing we will not pull the trigger against Cleveland. He has 25 of the team’s 66 targets (38%) and a strong 15-193-1 line in two games. He’s apparently as good as advertised, but how can we put any trust at all in Daniel Jones against a Cleveland defense that was elite against the pass last year?
I don’t want to be in this game, but Elijah Moore ($3,600) has run the second-most routes on the Browns and has earned 14 targets. This is elevated spot for the Browns pass attack against a weak Giants defense, so there’s some reason to like Moore for this cheap. These sub-$4K price tags come in very handy when building lineups on tough weeks.
Recaps/Targets
Maybe, just maybe I’ll throw Elijah Moore in there if I’m completley despereate for a $3,600 player - but I don’t want to touch this game.
Bears vs. Colts
Game Environment
OU: 42.5
Spread: Colts -1.5Bears O: -1.9% PROE, 13th-fastest
Colts O: -8.6% PROE, the fastest pace in leagueBears D: 4.4 Yds/Play, 5.7 Yds/Pass, 4.5 Yds/Rush
Colts D: 5.5 Yds/Play, 7.7 Yds/Pass, 5.0 Yds/RushBoth defenses are around the middle of the pack so far. The Colts play very fast, which is noteworthy, but the 42.5 O/U makes this is a shaky spot for fantasy points.
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson ($6,700) had a big week one with three touchdowns but laid an egg in week two with just 204 yards through the air and 37 on the ground for one total touchdown. The Colts could not get it going against the Packers’ defense. Richardson’s 8.0 yards per attempt is decent, but he’s thrown four interceptions and we suspect he’s not a great passing QB. The Bears have been awful offensively, so this doesn’t figure to be a game where Richardson is pushed. The ceiling is still there with A-Rich, but he’s not going to be the optimal QB play for us.
Caleb Williams ($5,600) has started his career horribly. He has just 267 passing yards through two games with a pathetic 4.0 yards per attempt and a 55% completion percentage. Not good!
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor ($7,300) has the role we want, but the Colts offense isn’t really conducive to monster usage RB games. Taylor has 31 touches through two games. That’s not bad, but it’s not really what we’re looking for at $7,300.
Defenses seem to be tempting Caleb Williams because they have locked down these running backs. D’Andre Swift ($5,600) has just 48 yards on 24 carries and is 4-24-0 through the air. He’s getting the bulk of the backfield work, but he’s had no room to maneuver, and we can’t play him.
Pass Catchers
Neither quarterback has shown much ability to get the ball to his receivers, and we have pretty spread-out offenses on both sides, so it’s an easy pass.
Recaps/Targets
Neither offense can be trusted to score enough points to get us on any of these plays.
Texans vs. Vikings
Game Environment
O/U: 45.5
Spread: Texans -2Texans O: -4.8% PROE, 19th-fastest pace
Vikings O: +1.8% PROE, 18th-fastest paceTexans D: 4.5 Yds/Play, 6.9 Yds/Pass, 3.9 Yds/Rush
Vikings D: 4.6 Yds/Play, 6.5 Yds/Pass, 3.8 Yds/RushBoth teams are right in the middle of the pack offensively and have both played good defense so far (although the schedule has a big impact there).
The lines show that this is a game environment we don’t have to shy away from. Both teams are willing to pass, and a 45.5 total isn’t bad for this slate.
Quarterbacks
If we’re going to this game, it’s not going to be at QB. C.J. Stroud ($7,100) and Sam Darnold ($5,500) have both had some success this year, but as pocket passers, they aren’t for us the way we play.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon ($6,900) is marked as questionable after an ankle injury. He did come back into the game for a handful of snaps after the initial exit, so that’s a positive sign, but we’re not 100% sure he’ll play.
If he’s in there and fully healthy, he’ll be the guy getting the ball out of the backfield. The backups are Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale, so it’s Mixon’s backfield.
This is a high price to pay for him, but we did see in week one what this role can do for him. He’s at 4.6 yards/carry on the year and has a decent 6-44-0 line through the air through less than two games played. I think he’s pretty touchdown-dependent, and if I’m coming up this high in price for a RB, I’d like someone with more upside. So I’m out on Mixon.
Aaron Jones ($5,900) has taken 23 of the 42 (55%) of RB carries. So he’s ceding a good amount of work to Ty Chandler. He does have eight targets and a 7-51 line through the air in addition to the 23-126-1 on the ground. I’ve viewed him as “considerable but really not exciting me” the past two weeks, and I think that’s how it’ll be here again. At first glance at the slate, there aren’t any RBs really popping off the page, so I’ll start the player pool list with him and scratch him off at the end if a bunch of other names end up above him.
Pass Catchers
Texans:
→ Nico Collins: 18 Tgt, 14-252-1, 13.6 ADoT
→ Stefon Diggs: 12 Tgt, 10-70-2, 5.7 ADoT
→ Tank Dell: 11 Tgt, 4-37-0, 13.4 ADoT
→ Joe Mixon: 6 Tgt, 6-44-0, -1.8 ADoT
→ Dalton Schultz: 6 Tgt, 5-37-0, 6.5 ADoTNico Collins ($7,300) leads the league in receiving, and the price tag has bumped up each of the last two weeks. I think he’s in play, but I’m still a little shaky on him, given the other options. Diggs seems like a short-route guy. Dell is another home run hitter but is nowhere near Collins. I think the presence of all of these other guys makes it a little hard to lock in Collins, but hey - 18 targets and 51.2 fantasy points through two weeks gets you on the list in a winnable matchup.
Vikings:
→ Justin Jefferson ($8,600): 13 Tgt, 8-192-2, 13.0 ADoT
That’s as far as we need to go. A 97-yard touchdown will boost your stats quite a bit after just two games, and that’s what Jefferson was able to grab last week. He was hurt in that game, but the reports say he’ll be fine for this week. He’s extremely expensive. His 26.5% Tgt/Route is nowhere near the league leaders, but his 3.92 Yds/Route is fourth-best. My gut feeling is that his floor might be too low to justify paying the $8,600 in a single lineup situation, but I’ll put him behind Collins on the list and see how the rest of this slate shakes out.
Recaps/Targets
I’m not over the moon with anyone here, but the two big alpha WRs Nico Collins $7,100 and Justin Jefferson $8,600 will make the list.
Eagles vs. Saints
Game Environment
Over/Under: 50
Spread: Saints -1.5Eagles O: -3.6% PROE, 14th in pace
Saints O: -10.3 PROE, 32nd in paceEagles D: 6.4 Yds/Play, 7.7 Yds/Pass, 6.3 Yds/Rush
Saints D: 4.3 Yds/Play, 6.4 Yds/Pass, 3.1 Yds/RushThe Saints have had big leads all season, so that explains their slow pace. But they have preferred the run with the seventh-lowest PROE. The Eagles are passing the ball at an above-average rate and playing at a middling pace.
The Eagles’ defense has been bad so far; that 6.4 yards per play allowed is third-worst in the league. The Saints have been thrown on a bunch because of their big leads, and they’ve maintained better-than-average yardage per play, which is allowed both on the ground and through the air.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($7,300) is on the main slate for the first time. He’s scored 16.4 and 23.8 fantasy points in his two games, and this would seem to the best game environment he’ll have seen this year. Even with Barkley there, Hurts is still doing a ton.
→ Week 1: 33 pass attempts, 278 yards, 2 TD, 13 rushes, 33 yards, 0 TD
→ Week 2: 30 pass attempts, 183 yards, 1 TD, 13 rushes, 85 yards, 1 TDOne of the big questions on this slate is if this Saints offense is for real. Nobody expected a ton from that offense, but they’ve been the best offense in the league through two games. We know they won’t continue to score anywhere near 45 points per game, but how much will they drop down? If we think they’re for real, then we really like Hurts here since this should be a high-scoring game. If we aren’t so sure about that, then it’s a tougher play at $7,300. I don’t think I’ll end up with an expensive QB very often this year, but Hurts can make the list for now.
I don’t really care how good Derek Carr ($5,800) has been so far; I’m not going to buy high on him here.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara ($7,500) is another big question on the slate. The price started at $6,700, came up to $7,000 last week, and gets another $500 tacked on here. He has scored five touchdowns in two games with 35-198-4 on the ground and 7-92-1 through the air. He is third on the team in routes (23) and leads the team in targets per route (35%). His snap share in the year is low at 44%, but a lot of that has to do with the blowouts. When he’s on the field, they’ve been getting him the ball a ton.
I’m a little worried about touchdown regression for Kamara. The Saints have given five red zone carries to Jamaal Williams, and Kamara has just one of the five red zone targets. If they get inside the three yard line, he’s not definitely the guy getting the ball, which you don’t love at the big price tag.
Saquon Barkley ($7,700) did not score in week two but got the ball 23 more times and now has 47-204-2 on the ground and 6-44-1 through the air. The price came down $100 from last week, but it’s still up $700 from where it started this year. I keep saying the same thing about Barkley. I just don’t think I can justify the $7,700 tag in a single-lineup situation because of how many touchdowns go to Hurts. In situations where the Eagles have just one yard to go, Hurts has taken seven carries to Barkley’s four. Just looking at this one game, I’d prefer Kamara at $7,500. There’s no way I’d pay for both of these guys, so Barkley is off the list for me.
Pass Catchers
Rashid Shaheed ($5,300) has hit a long touchdown in both games so far and has scored 16,3 and 20.9 fantasy points. I don’t want to play a guy who is reliant on the long bomb in my lineup, but we should point out that he leads the team in targets with nine. He’s not just one of these guys who gets two or three looks a game downfield and could bust out with zero points if he doesn’t catch them. He’s also been given three rush attempts, including one in the red zone. So it’s a decent role with a big upside. But the floor is probably still too low for my personal consideration.
Chris Olave ($6,300) has not had a good start to the year, with just 6-92-0 on eight targets in two games. That’s more what we’re hoping for him in one game. The ADoT is 11.4, which is optimal. He has been so good in his career that we’d have to imagine better games are coming. This is a fine spot for him, but I think there’s just too much doubt looming because of the lower 22% target share. This offense has been pretty spread out, and that makes it tough to go here - especially since I’m expecting offense regression for them.
A.J. Brown missed the Monday Night game and appears to be out again this week. The Eagles went like this in week two without him:
→ Smith: 10 targets, 7-71-1, 10.6 ADoT
→ Covey: 6 targets, 6-23-0, 1.8 ADoT
→ Barkley: 5 targets, 4-21-0, 0.8 ADoT
→ Goedert: 4 targets, 3-38-0, 9.5 ADoTDeVonta Smith ($6,900) led the team in week two. It wasn’t a crazy-high target game for him with 10 (he earned eight in week one), but his ADoT did come up 2.5 yards as he played a little bit more of the AJ Brown role.
Smith’s price is up only $200 here, so he’s a fine play, I just don’t know if his role improves all that much with Brown out. It would have been a pretty mediocre game for him without that touchdown.
Britain Covey ($3,200) saw some work with 17 routes on 20 snaps, earning six short-yardage targets. That’s an elite 35% Tgt/Route, but just 8.3 fantasy points to show for it. We’ll see how things play out through the week, but I think Covey is useful as a no-ceiling punt option if we really need it. He should project for a handful of targets, and that’s not always easy to find this cheap.
I’m going to put both of these guys on the list, and we’ll review it again when we’re all done.
Recaps/Targets
It’s a high total, and there are a ton of players here with big ceilings. My general philosophy in sports is that our minds should be pretty slow to change. I’m not willing to believe the Saints are a stud offense after two games, so I’d be on the under here - which means I’m less interested in these plays. Alvin Kamara is the only guy with a role that truly stands out, and I’m not totally in love with the play there, either. But he’ll go on the back end of the list along with DeVonta Smith and Britain Covey.
Chargers vs. Steelers
Game Environment
Over/Under: 35.5
Spread: Steelers -2Chargers O: -12.4% PROE, 30th in pace
Steelers O: -13.8% PROE, 25th in paceThe matchup with Carolina throws off the pace. The Chargers dominated that game and didn’t have to push at all. But they were 25th in pace in week one as well, so it’s fair to say they slow down the game a bit. We know for sure the Steelers will slow things down, so this is a pretty easy game to avoid.
Quarterbacks
Pass!
Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins ($6,400) has been awesome this year. He has 266 yards on 27 carries to lead the league in yards per carry. Clearly, he has benefited from the schedule with games against the Raiders and Panthers. Now he’s $6,400 in a much tougher matchup. The Steelers have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry and have held Bijan Robinson, Jaleen McLaughlin, and Javonte Williams to just 29 fantasy points through two games. Dobbins is great, but it’s not a good spot for him.
Pass on the Steelers’ side.
Pass Catchers
Quentin Johnston ($4,600) and Ladd McConkey ($5,000) both have 11 targets to lead the team. Johnston has been the fantasy point scorer thanks to two touchdowns and his further ADoT (10.5 while McConkey is at 8.1). I think there will be weeks where we like one of these guys as a cheaper WR, but the Pittsburgh defense is too good and the game total is too low to take a gamble on one of them.
Pass on the Steelers’ side!
Recaps/Targets
There’s nothing here.
Broncos vs. Bucs
Game Environment
Over/Under: 40
Spread: Bucs -7Broncos O: -4.1% PROE, 11th in pace
Bucs O: 0% PROE, 31st in paceThe Broncos have good defensive marks, but they’ve faced two mediocre offenses in Seattle and Pittsburgh. It’s hard to judge them. The Bucs have held their own against both the Commanders and the Lions, and they grade out slightly above average defensively this year.
The line implies the Bucs cruise here, so let’s take a look through that context.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield ($6,300) has been good this year with 474 yards and five touchdowns, and he’s added on 8-55-1 on the ground. It’s a decent matchup, but at $6,300 I don’t think that’ll be the right play.
Running Backs
Rachaad White ($6,100) got banged up last game and has a questionable tag on him right now, but it sounds like he’ll play. He’s averaging all of 2.0 yards per carry this year but has a strong 7-80 line through the air. He sets up much better in games where the Bucs are projected to trail. I think he’ll lose more and more carries to Bucky Irving ($5,100) as we move forward. Irving is averaging a strong 5.3 yards per rush, but played 17 snaps and ran seven routes last week even while White wasn’t 100%. If White were to miss this game, we’d be interested in Irving, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. It’s a pass on both backfields.
Pass Catchers
We’ll be looking at the Bucs pretty much every week here because they are so concentrated.
→ Godwin: 79% Snaps, 16 Targets, 31% Tgt/Route, 3.92 Yds/Route
→ Evans: 74% Snaps, 12 Targets, 23% Tgt/Route, 1.98 Yds/RouteThe price is climbing on Chris Godwin ($6,500). He’s gone 15-200-2 so far this year with a 94% Catch% and a 6.9 ADoT. He’s an extension of the run game basically. That makes his floor very high, even if the Bucs do breeze through this game.
Mike Evans ($7,200) is still the more expensive guy. He has a high 8.9 ADoT, but that’s still super high. I think the breakdown is pretty easy. If you want the ceiling - you play Evans. If you want the floor - you’re looking at Godwin. We want a floor here. This isn’t the greatest spot for Bucs receivers with the lower total and the Broncos’ inability to push opposing offenses, but I’ll add Godwin to the list just because of how great the role is for him.
Recaps/Targets
It’s only Chris Godwin ($6,500) for me, and he’s by no means a lock.
Packers vs. Titans
Game Environment
Game OU: 36.5
Spread: Titans -3Packers O: -15% PROE, 22nd in pace
Titans O: -9.7% PROE, 20th in pacePackers D: 5.8 Yds/Play, 7.3 Yds/Pass, 5.1 Yds/Rush
Titans D: 3.8 Yds/Play, 4.5 Yds/Pass, 4.0 Yds/RushThe Packers are a much different team with Malik Willis as their QB as compared to Jordan Love. And we are going to get Willis again here. Last week, they threw the ball just 27% of the time, an astoundingly low number. The Titans aren’t a ton different. They are also going to be hesitant to let their QB control the game as Will Levis sits seventh-worst in the league with a 5.32 yards per attempt with a 2:3 TD:INT through two games.
So this game will be a slog, as you can see by the 36.5 total. However, there are two workhorse running backs here that we’ll have to cover.
Quarterbacks
I’m going to do here what neither team wants to: Pass.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs ($6,700) carried the ball 32 times last week. He turned that into 151 yards, but did not get a single target and did not score a touchdown, so his fantasy scoring was limited to that rushing yardage (and the DraftKings 100-yard bonus). MarShawn Lloyd, his backup, is now on IR. So this sets up for massive Jacobs volume again.
Here are some yards/carry rates against the Titans so far this year:
Breece Hall 4.4
Braelon Allen 4.7
D’Andre Swift 3.0
Khalil Herbert 2.0Overall it’s below four yards per carry, so this is a tough defense. Jacobs can be a factor in the pass game, but that’s less sure with Willis as the QB. The good news is that the Jacobs should get all the carries he can handle once again. The bad news is that he still doesn’t have that big ceiling that we want for the $6,700 due to the concerns with catches and touchdowns. It’s not often we fade a 20-25 touch projection, but this is one of those times.
Tony Pollard ($6,000) is on the other side here. Through two games:
→ Week One: 16-82-1 rushing, 3-12-0 receiving (4 targets)
→ Week Two: 17-62-0 rushing, 5-40-0 receiving (6 targets)He is 10th in touches in the league so far and sixth among RBs in catches. He has averaged a decent 4.4 yards per carry, and the Packers have been thrashed on the ground again this year.
I’m never going to be locking in a running back on a poor offense with a total this low, but Pollard is a very strong play here and he’s going on the list.
Pass Catchers
Pass.
Recaps/Targets
It’s only Tony Pollard ($6,000) for me.
Panthers vs. Raiders
Game Environment
Over/Under: 41
Spread: Raiders -5Panthers O: -10.6% PROE, 2nd in pace
Raiders O: 6% PROE, 32nd in pacePanthers D: 5.5 Yds/Play, 7.5 Yds/Pass, 4.9 Yds/Rush
Raiders D: 5.8 Yds/Play, 6.7 Yds/Pass, 5.9 Yds/RushThe Panthers have been beaten 47-10 by the Saints and 26-3 by the Chargers. That makes them the top defense to target. They have made a change at QB from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton, and that does change things.
The Raiders lost 22-10 to the Chargers and then beat the Ravens 26-23. They have been a pleasant surprise offensively. This is an interesting game, and it’s one we might find plays from, I think.
Quarterbacks
I think there will be plays here, but not at quarterback.
Running Backs
The Raiders have given 56% of their carries to Zamir White, 23% to Alexander Mattison, 10% to Gardner Minshew, and 5% to Ameer Abdullah. It’s tough to know who will get the ball here, and neither running back has much per-touch upside, so we’re going to have to pass there even with the ideal matchup going on.
On the Carolina side, it’s been a pretty even split between Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Even with Bryce Young out of the picture, we can’t use a running back here.
Pass Catchers
Here is where we have some stuff to talk about.
The Raiders have a “big two” developing:
→ Davante Adams ($7,600): 18 targets, 14-169-1, 10.9 ADoT
→ Brock Bowers ($5,400): 17 targets, 15-156-0, 5.6 ADoTA good general rule to follow is to not buy into tight ends who get a $1,000 price increase as Bowers has here, but it’s not as though he hasn’t earned it. Bowers has run 59 routes and earned team-bests in targets per route (28.8%) and yards per route (2.64). That’s elite usage for a tight end, and this is a superb spot for the Raiders - so yes, Bowers goes on the tight end list.
I’m adding Adams to the list as well. There’s room for growth on this 22% Tgt/Route, and we know how good the guy is. Minshew lowers his floor and ceiling quite a bit, but there’s not a ton of obvious expensive plays here, so Adams will be one of the better ways to spend our cash. I’d prefer Bowers to Adams all things considered.
No Panthers pass catcher has double-digit fantasy points yet this year, which is a wild stat, but they get a more competent QB under center this week in Dalton. That brings Diontae Johnson ($4,900) into the conversation. He’s very cheap, and earned a high 23% Tgt/Route with Young, but was held to just 0.64 yards per route. Dalton is a huge upgrade for him, and I think we can play Johnson here. I’ll be very interested to see if other smarter people agree with me on that.
Recaps/Targets
I’m into Brock Bowers, Davante Adams, and Diontae Johnson in this game.
Dolphins vs. Seahawks
Game Environment
Over/Under: 41
Spread: Seahawks -4.5Things are a lot different for the Dolphins now with Tua out. Skylar Thompson will be the starter for this game, and that’s not a good thing for anybody.
Seahawks O: 5.8% PROE, 9th in pace
This is the third-highest PROE in the league behind Cincy and Las Vegas.
Seahawks D: 3.9 Yds/Play, 4.2 Yds/Pass, 4.7 Yds/Rush
Dolphins D: 5.4 Yds/Play, 7.5 Yds/Pass, 4.5 Yds/RushThese are really strong defensive marks for the Seahawks, but they have faced two of the league’s worst offenses so far in New England and Denver.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith ($5,600) projects well for this price. If we really need a cheap QB, he is an option. The floor is decent with him - he very rarely goes for less than a dozen points. My hesitation is that he doesn’t have much of a ceiling, and this isn’t the great game environment either. But I’ll put him at the bottom of the list mostly because we like cheap QB plays, and I’m not seeing much else on that front.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane ($7,000) has been phenomenal this year, as expected.
→ Week 1: 10-24-1 rushing, 7-76-0 (7 targets) receiving
→ Week 2: 22-96-0 rushing, 7-69-1 (7 targets) receivingThat was 31 touches for Achane last week after being a game-time decision and that game being over for a large part of the fourth quarter. A lot here depends on the availability of Raheem Mostert. If he’s out again, I don’t see how we can ignore Achane even at $7,000 and even without Tua. He is so good when he gets the ball, and you’d think he’s have something like a 20-touch floor if Mostert isn’t a factor.
Zach Charbonnet ($6,000) last week without Walker:
→ 63 of 66 snaps, 14-38-1 rushing, 5-31-0 (5 targets) receiving
No other running back receiving a carry. Charbonnet is a usage monster if Walker is out, and the Seahawks are expected to lead in this game against a beatable rush defense. If Walker is out, which seems likely, Charbonnet makes the list.
So both running backs are interesting.
Pass Catchers
I wouldn’t be running away from Tyreek Hill ($8,400) if I were building 20 lineups. I think the ceiling is still there with him. Sometimes these backup QBs come on the field and just target their best guy as much as possible. But we certainly cannot pay this price tag for Hill with the huge questions about if the Dolphins can score points here.
Let’s take a close look at the Seahawks situation.
→ Metcalf: 72 routes, 19 targets, 26% Tgt/Route, 2.2 Yds/Route
→ JSN: 69 routes, 18 targets, 26% Tgt/Route, 2.0 Yds/Route
→ Lockett: 62 routes, 9 targets, 14.5% Tgt/Route, 1.5 Yds/Route
→ Fant: 54 routes, 7 targets, 13% Tgt/Route, 0.5 Yds/RouteDK Metcalf ($6,300) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400) are the two Seahawks to consider. JSN went for a 2-19-0 dud on week one, but then a 12-117 bust-out with 16 targets in week two. That floor is a little hard to stomach, but for $5,400 it’s a play I’m leaning into right now. I think Metcalf’s floor is too low for the price, so I’m only going to add JSN to the list.
Recaps/Targets
I have plenty of interest in Achane and Charbonnet if their counterparts are out again, and I like Smith-Njigba as well.
Lions vs. Cardinals
Game Environment
Over/Under: 52.5
Spread: Lions -2.5Lions O: -6.4% PROE, 7th in pace
Cardinals O: -4.4 PROE, 28th in paceLions D: 4.8 Yds/Play, 7.4 Yds/Pass, 3.3 Yds/Rush
Cardinals D: 5.3 Yds/Play, 9.0 Yds/Pass, 3.5 Yds/RushThis is the game of the week as far as game environment goes. I think this is the highest total we’ve seen so far on a main slate. The Cardinals have played in games with 62 and 51 points scored, the Lions with 46 and 36.
Both defenses, so far, have been stout against the rush and mediocre to bad against the pass - but again, it’s too early to trust those numbers. The total and spread says it all - this should be a back-and-forth, fast-paced game.
Quarterbacks
Kyle Murray ($6,900) has thrown for 428 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and an 8.23 yards per attempt this year. He’s run 10 times for 116 yards in addition to that, scoring 14.2 and 28.5 fantasy points. The Lions have taken on two non-mobile quarterbacks this year in Baker Mayfield (18.8 fantasy points) and Matthew Stafford (17.7 points). Stafford threw for 317 yards on a 6.5 yards per attempt while Mayfield went for 185 yards on 9.7 yards per attempt. This is a pretty great spot for Murray, and he’ll be on the list for me.
On the other side is Jared Goff ($6,500), who will not work for us.
Running Backs
James Conner ($6,600) has carried the ball 38 times this year, that’s 70% of the RB carries for the Cardinals. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry with 4-35-0 through the air on five targets. The Lions have been good against running backs so far, and Conner is far from the most explosive back in the league. This is a 20-touch role in the best game environment of the week, though, so he might have to be on the list. I just don’t see myself paying $6,600 for someone who pretty much needs multiple touchdowns to really pay off.
Both Lions backs have avoided injury so far, so we’re entering another game with an expected split. David Montgomery ($6,100) has 28 of the team’s 52 RB carries for 126 yards, two touchdowns, and a 5-37-0 line through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800) has gone 24-124-1 on the ground and 11-56-0 through the air. Gibbs is still the preferred play here even for $700 more. I could see myself ending up on him, but I don’t think he’ll be any kind of “lock” play unless Montgomery misses a game. Conner and Gibbs are going on the list.
Pass Catchers
Cardinals:
→ Harrison Jr.: 60 routes, 11 targets, 5-134-2, 16.5 ADoT
→ McBride: 55 routes, 15 targets, 11-97-0, 7.2 ADoT
→ Wilson: 55 routes, 4 targets, 3-36-1, 12.0 ADoT
→ Dortch: 38 routes, 10 targets, 8-58-0, 7.1 ADoTMarvin Harrison Jr. ($7,400) had the huge game in week two with two long touchdowns. That was good after his dud in week one. His numbers on the year don’t seem to justify the $7,400 tag with just 18% Tgt/Route and 2.2 Yds/Route, but the ceiling is surely there with the downfield looks he gets.
Trey McBride ($6,200) has the second-most targets in the league among tight ends, and that’s with a relatively high ADoT. His 108 air yards are second-most for tight ends. He’s a very strong play here after not doing much in the box score yet despite the elite tight end role.
Lions:
→ St. Brown: 83 routes, 25 targets, 14-132-0, 8.6 ADoT
→ Williams: 72 routes, 8 targets, 10-200-1, 12.8 ADoT
→ LaPorta: 72 routes, 8 targets, 6-58-0, 4.0 ADoTJameson Williams ($5,800) has been nice, and has huge ceiling in this spot, but the floor isn’t what I’m looking for. Sam LaPorta ($6,000) has not had the best role with just an 11% Tgt/Route and the low ADoT. All of his numbers are bound to improve, but I’d much prefer McBride or Bowers at tight end.
The best play on the Lions is Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200). This is a fantastic game environment to use him in, and his target-earning ability gives him a super high floor. It’s going to be interesting to survey the expensive options we have when I’m done writing this. I know I always want to pay up for a stud or two with that huge upside, and St. Brown just might be that guy this week.
I’m adding McBride and St. Brown to the list here.
Recaps/Targets
I want some pieces of this game, but there isn’t a clear must-play here. We’ll see where we end up, but I’d feel pretty good about having Kyle Murray + Amon-Ra St. Brown in my final lineup. I’m adding those two plus Gibbs and McBride to my player pool.
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Game Environment
Over/Under: 48.5
Spread: Ravens -1Ravens O: -6.5% PROE, 8th in pace
Cowboys O: -4.1% PROE, 10th in paceRavens D: 5.3 Yds/Play, 8.6 Yds/Pass, 2.7 Yds/Rush
Cowboys D: 5.0 Yds/Play, 6.8 Yds/Pass, 4.9 Yds/RushI was a little surprised to see the total this high. I’d bet the under there if I was that kind of guy. Both teams have been playing pretty quick, and they both do have plenty of big-play upside that can score points in a hurry.
It’s another pretty great game environment, so we’re going to have a lot of plays in the late games - which I always think is a nice bonus. You’re in the game all Sunday.
Quarterbacks
I would still rather not play a QB against the Ravens, so Dak Prescott ($6,600) is an easy pass.
Lamar Jackson ($7,500) is a couple hundred bucks cheaper than last week, but is still most expensive QB on the board. If you’re ever going to pay $7,500 for Lamar, it would be in this kind of game that could be a 60-point sprint. He’ll go on the list, but I doubt I actually find the cash to get to him.
Running Backs
For as exciting as these two teams can be, they are not exciting with their running backs.
Pass Catchers
Cowboys:
→ Lamb: 66 routes, 17 targets,
→ Cooks: 66 routes, 9 targets,
→ Tolbert: 65 routes, 11 targets,Nobody else has more than 30 routes run. If Jake Ferguson ($4,500) returns, he’d be expected to run a bunch of routes - and would actually be pretty interesting to us at that price. In week one, he ran 23 routes with five targets - a strong 22% Tgt/Route. It looks like the best bet is that he’ll play, so I’m going to put him on the tight end list.
The other play is clearly CeeDee Lamb ($8,800). The Ravens were really tough against the pass last year, but they’ve already given up two big receiving days this year (Adams 9-110-1, Rice 7-103-0), so maybe we shouldn’t worry too much about that. Lamb’s going on the list.
Ravens:
→ Flowers: 85 routes, 21 targets, 13-128-1, 7.4 ADoT
→ Bateman: 80 routes, 9 targets, 5-93-0, 17.4 ADoT
→ Andrews: 65 routes, 7 targets, 6-65-0, 10.6 ADoT
→ Likely: 53 routes, 15 targets, 11-137-1, 8.3 ADoT
→ Hill: 46 routes, 10 targets, 8-62-0, -1.7 ADoTZay Flowers ($6,800) has a nice 25% Tgt/Route, but just a 1.2 Yds/Route. He has his moments, but the floor really has not been there. Lamar Jackson just does not produce consistent production from wide receivers. If he were $500 cheaper, I think we’d consider it - but not here.
The tight end situation is probably too uncertain to go to. I think this is another week of just viewing the Ravens as “Lamar or nobody”.
Recaps/Targets
I’ve got Lamar Jackson, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson going on the list.
49ers vs. Rams
Game Environment
Over/Under: 44.5
Spread: 49ers -7.549ers O: -9.4% PROE, 26th in pace
Rams O: -1.9% PROE, 4th in pace49ers D: 6.8 Yds/Play, 8.6 Yds/Pass, 4.9 Yds/Rush
Rams D: 6.7 Yds/Play, 9.9 Yds/Pass, 5.5 Yds/RushIt’s surprising to see the 49ers as this big of a road favorite while missing CMC and Deebo, but the Rams are super banged-up as well. It’s not a great game environment, but the injuries do create a bunch of value opportunity, so let’s look.
Quarterbacks
Pass - Stafford and Purdy just aren’t the answers for us.
Running Backs
Jordan Mason ($6,200) gets another price increase, but is it enough to take us off a guy who has 48 rush attempts and 5.2 yards per carry through two weeks as a touchdown favorite? I don’t think so. He did sort of almost bust last time, he only had a couple of points in the first half I believe, but he got there with another 100-yard game with a score. I can’t say the floor is amazing with his lack of passing game role (2-9-0 this year), but this is a great situation for him nonetheless, and I imagine he makes it in the lineup again.
Blake Corum was active in week two but played just eight snaps, so it’s still an elite role for Kyren Williams ($7,100). He’s much less appealing this week since the Rams are implied for so few points. The absence of Kupp and Nacua are good and bad for Kyren. They shore up his touches, but they also allow the defense to focus a bit more on him, and the overall touchdown projection goes way down for the Rams. So I don’t think Williams is the right play at this price.
Pass Catchers
49ers Last Week
→ Aiyuk: 41 routes, 5 targets, 4-43-0, 8.4 ADoT
→ Samuel: 39 routes, 10 targets, 8-110-0, 10.4 ADoT
→ Jennings: 30 routes, 4 targets, 2-23-0, 13.8 ADoT
→ Kittle: 30 routes, 8 targets, 7-76-1, 7.3 ADoTWith Deebo out, the 49ers shift their attention massively to George Kittle ($5,700) and Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200).
Last year, Samuel missed almost all of week 6, and then missed their weeks 7 and 8 games. In that sample:
→ Aiyuk: 30% target share, 47% air yard share, 14-242-0
→ Kittle: 24% target share, 29% air yard share, 15-228-0
→ Jennings: 16% target share, 15% air yard share, 7-80-0That gives credence to both Aiyuk and Kittle as strong plays.
This year, Kittle has a 22% Tgt/Route this year while Aiyuk is down at 15%. I think Kittle and Aiyuk are equally strong. It does get tough to spend up at tight end a lot of times, so that might be the deciding factor on who I play - but I do imagine playing one of these guys.
Some people might chase Jennings, but I don’t think that’s the right play. I’m looking at playing Mason, Aiyuk, and Kittle. The prices are just too low given all the work that Deebo’s absence leaves on the table.
Rams Last Week
→ Robinson: 28 routes, 4 targets, 2-50-0, 14.0 ADoT
→ Johnson: 25 routes, 3 targets, 2-20-0, 3.7 ADoT
→ Parkinson: 24 routes, 2 targets, 1-12-0, 7.5 ADoT
→ Kupp: 19 routes, 6 targets, 4-37-0, 7.0 ADoT
→ Whittington: 13 routes, 2 targets, 2-22-0, -2 ADoT
→ Atwell: 10 routes, 4 targets, 3-48-0, 13.8 ADoTThere are so many targets up for grabs with Nacua and Kupp out, but it’s really tough to figure out where they’ll go. Nobody seemed to step into an elevated role in the second half after Kupp went down.
There aren’t any obviously strong plays here, but it’s likely that one of these cheap wideouts has a very good game for their price. Tutu Atwell ($4,300), Jordan Whittington ($4,200), Tyler Johnson ($4,700), and Demarcus Robinson ($5,000) are the guys that we could take shots on.
Colby Parkinson ($3,600) busted at higher ownership last week, but he’s in play again if we need a punt tight end. There are all kinds of targets available here, and he has run 66 routes in two games - so they are using him as a pass-catching tight end.
I’m going to do my best to avoid this, but if we get some news that Whittington or Atwell might step into Kupp’s role, I think that would push me toward playing that person. We’ll have to keep an eye on Twitter this weekend for more ideas on that.
Recaps/Targets
I’m once again on Jordan Mason, and then one of Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle are very likely to make my lineup
The Rams side is much tougher to figure out. I don’t hate the idea of punting with Jordan Whittington ($4,200) since he was the guy who took Kupp’s role in the second half last week. I think we’re looking at a pretty weak score from him though. He might get 5-7 low-value targets and end up with something like 4-40-0. Even that result wouldn’t kill the lineup, but the general rule is that we want to only take guys that have some level of upside - and Whittington probably doesn’t.
And now we come to the paywall. Behind the paywall is the player pool and my initial thoughts on building a lineup.