We are coming off a winning week where we broke a three-week stretch of losses. Check out the week six lineup reviewfor the full breakdown. I’m up to a 16% ROI, and I’ve won 66% of head-to-heads. I’d like to get more head-to-head action this week. The reason for that not only has to do with the early success but also that being heavy on head-to-head makes the bad weeks hurt less. If I play 100 people, I’m probably not going to lose all of them, so even a bad lineup will return some of the money.
Quick Links
View this post in a browser, and you’ll see all of the links to the individual games.
I’ve started to do a lot with price tracking here, showing you plots of how the prices on players have gone through the year. I’ve refined the Google Sheet for that, and you can all check it out here.
The third tab there is called “Changes.” That’s a table of this week’s price compared to the last price the player had on a main slate, and then it sorts it by the difference. We have seven players that have increased by at least $1,000 this week:
That alone tells you quite a bit about the slate.
Slate Overview
There are only two teams on bye this week (Bears and Cowboys), but there’s another European game and two Monday Night games, so we’re back to another manageable 10-game slate. We have five games with at least a 47-point total.
Commanders (-7.5) vs. Panthers: 52
Seahawks vs. Falcons (-2.5): 51
Lions vs. Vikings (-2.5): 49.5
Texans vs. Packers (-2.5): 47.5
Chiefs vs. 49ers (-1.5): 47
As of right now, there are no major slate-changing injuries. There are a few big names questionable, but I think they’re likely to play - we’ll get into all of that during the game write-ups. Let’s get going!
Defensive Yards Allowed Plot Update
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Game Environment
Over/Under: 51 Spread: Falcons -2.5
We have a surprisingly high total. I say surprising because both defenses are pretty good. The Seahawks allow 5.4 yards per play, while the Falcons are at 5.0. The Seahawks have given up a high 4.9 yards per carry, so that’s a bit of a hole to exploit potentially.
Offensively, Seattle is still airing it out with a +5% PROE, while the Falcons slightly prefer the run with a -3.5% PROE.
This is one of the big ones on the slate, so we’re taking a close look.
Quarterbacks
Neither quarterback is a top fantasy quarterback in terms of ceiling, but they’re both more than competent passers. The play I could see myself making this week is Geno Smith ($5,800). He has been trending upward in price throughout the year, but for some reason, he’s down $300 this week.
He has averaged 42 pass attempts per game and has averaged 320 yards passing over these last five games. This is a good game environment to take a quarterback from, and the $5,800 is a really nice price tag for us.
Running Backs
We have two expensive running backs in this one. Bijan Robinson ($7,100) snapped right back up to his prior price after dropping down $400 last week. On the other side is Kenneth Walker ($7,300).
Bijan had his first 20+ game last week, but he needed two touchdowns to get there. He still has yet to rush for 100 yards or cross 50 receiving yards, and his average line is 14-63-0.5 and 3.5-27-0.0. He’s still a fine play, but we can only pick a maximum of three running backs to use, and $7,100 seems like the proper price tag rather than one to exploit.
Walker gets it done in both facets. He has caught 15 balls over his last two games and has a floor of 15 fantasy points in his four games this year. The role is great. The matchup is less than great, as the Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per snap to running backs this year. I’ll pass on Walker, but he’s obviously a must-start in standard fantasy leagues.
Drake London ($6,900) has seen more work in recent weeks (11 targets per game, 31% Tgt%, 29.5% Tgt/Route last four games with three touchdowns), but the price has been coming up alongside:
I would like to have some pieces of this game. That said, there are a lot of spots to exploit, and I’m not sure buying high on the London price where these other legitimate weapons still exist is the optimal play.
The floors on Darnell Mooney ($5,600) and Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,400) showed up last week, as they scored just 6.8 and 4.3 points, respectively. Mooney is up another $300 this week, which is weird after his bust last week. So I’m not loving any of these Falcons options.
On the Seahawks side, it’s still a three-man game through the air.
The floors are pretty low on all three, but Metcalf is clearly the guy if you really want a Seahawks pass catcher to pair with Geno. He’s also down $200 after he’s scored just 7.5 and 7.8 points in his last two games.
He still has 18 targets in these last two games, so the role is great. I could see using Metcalf, but generally, I think the floor with him is a bit too low for our single lineup build.
There could be a ton of fantasy points scored in this game. I’ve added London and Metcalf to the list, but I doubt anybody in these passing games makes the final cut.
Recaps/Targets
I like Geno Smith a lot, and then I’m relatively fine with Bijan Robinson, and I’ve thrown London and Metcalf on the list for now.
Titans vs. Bills
Game Environment
Over/Under: 42.5 Spread: Bills -8.5
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen is too expensive as a big favorite, and Will Levis is… Will Levis.
Running Backs
The only play that makes any kind of sense to me would be James Cook ($7,000) has a dual-threat RB as a huge favorite. That said, he’s still banged up, the price is high, and the Titans are pretty darn good against the run. So I can’t go anywhere.
It looks like Cook will play, but if he doesn’t - Ray Davis ($5,200) would become close a lock. The price has come up from $4,100 to $5,200 here, but that’s probably not enough given the 20 carries and three targets he saw last week. The running back on a team favored by a touchdown is a spot to capitalize on, and it’s not often we get one for this cheap.
Tony Pollard ($6,300) is tough to click on with his team’s super-low implied point total. That said, the Bills have given up 5.3 yards per rush, the most in the league. Pollard also doesn’t go away when his team’s playing catch-up; he has a 14% target share and has run 88 routes in five games. He could pay off his price tag without a touchdown by busting one long run and catching 6-8 balls. I’ll put him on the list, but it’s not quite the optimal spot I’m looking for.
Pass Catchers
With Amari Cooper arriving in Buffalo, it’s easy to ignore that passing game. It was already easy, but it’s easier this week as Cooper gets acclimated. And Tennessee has nobody worth considering.
Recaps/Targets
It’s Tony Pollard ($6,300) alone going on the list, and I bet he ends up near the bottom of it.
Bengals vs. Browns
Game Environment
Over/Under: 43 Spread: Bengals -4.5
This is a closer spread than I had imagined. These teams are 3-9 combined, but the Bengals at least have a competent offense, while the Browns have been dismal.
I don’t think I’ve played anybody in a Browns game yet this year, and that has been working just fine. Let’s breeze through this game.
Quarterbacks
The Bengals love to pass, but the Browns have still been decently strong against quarterbacks. They’re allowing 6.7 yards per attempt and are in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed. The Bengals pass attack is strong, but it’s not a good spot to use Joe Burrow ($6,800) in at this price.
We might eventually see Jameis Winston ($4,900) at QB for the Browns, and that would be a play I’d jump on in a spot like this - but I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Running Backs
Chase Brown ($5,900) has taken over the starting role for the Bengals. He out-snapped Zack Moss ($5,800) 32-24 last week and took 10 of the 16 carries for 53 yards and another score. He has four touchdowns in his last two games. The Browns have given up 4.7 yards per carry, so they haven’t been stout against the run. It’s not a horrible spot to use Brown in, but I think there’s just too much risk of Moss taking too much of the work for him to get the usage we need. If Moss were injured, this would be a different story, but that’s not the case.
Nick Chubb ($6,000) will make his season debut this week. That’s good for the Browns, but it’s not something we want to react to.
Pass Catchers
The Bengals over these last four games since they’ve been fully healthy:
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400) is way up there in price, and Tee Higgins ($6,400) is making his way upward.
I just don’t think this is the game to use any Bengals in. The best play is Higgins, once again, but I’m not going to get to it.
On the Browns side, there’s one appealing play due to price - and it’s David Njoku ($4,100). He has missed time, and the price has fallen a ton during that spell.
Njoku has not managed to play a full game yet, but he still has seen 5, 3, and 7 targets in his three partial games played. His 25% Tgt/Route leads the team, and that was before Amari Cooper was traded. Njoku is a super strong tight end play.
Recaps/Targets
None.
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