2023 Third Base Preview
Today we cover third base! Here are the links to the rest of the series.
Landscape
We talked about this in the shortstop post, but we see the biggest difference between the top player and the replacement player in terms of dollar values at the third base position.
C: $8
1B: $7
2B: $7
SS: $6
3B: $10
OF: $7
By my projections, Jose Ramirez is worth $16 in a 5x5 roto league. The replacement (the 13th best 3B) is Ke’Bryan Hayes down at $6. That’s a big difference.
Despite the lack of depth, we have a handful of studs at the top - so it’s not going to be super hard to get your hands on a good bat at the position. That will all become clear as we move forward, but the general advice here would be to get one of these top-tier bats because this is the toughest position (besides catcher, probably) to fill after pick 100 or so.
Tier One & Two
Jose Ramirez
Bobby Witt Jr.
Manny Machado
Austin Riley
Rafael Devers
Nolan Arenado
There is a big difference between Ramirez ($16) and Arenado ($13), but I wanted to just cluster them all together because that’s how I am looking at the position. We have these six guys and then everyone else.
The steals come from Ramirez & Witt (both projected over 30 SB). Of those two, the safety comes from Ramirez. I could put Ramirez on his own tier, and for me right now I am drafting Ramirez or Acuna Jr. if I have the #1 overall pick.
Those two will likely go in the first round of your draft, and then Machado, Riley, and Devers will go in the second or early third.
Let’s look at the projections here:
Ramirez | $16 | 651 PA, 91 R, 29 HR, 100 RBI, 30 SB, .283 AVG
Witt Jr. | $12 | 638 PA, 84 R, 20 HR, 69 RBI, 31 SB, .247 AVG
Machado | $13 | 650 PA, 90 R, 27 HR, 102 RBI, 12 SB, .267 AVG
Riley | $14 | 648 PA, 98 R, 34 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .276 AVG
Devers | $13 | 651 PA, 93 R, 32 HR, 108 RBI, 4 SB, .280 AVG
Arenado | $13 | 631 PA, 89 R, 32 HR, 113 HR, 4 SB, .272 AVG
By the projections, everybody but Ramirez is there is basically the same - which could lead us into taking Arenado at the lower cost. However, if one of these names is going to really let us down I think it’s Arenado who could feasibly hit .240 with some bad luck and he won’t steal bases. He also relies heavily on pulling fly balls to get his homers, which to me just makes it a bit less likely that he ends up in the 30s for the homers again.
How I’m dealing with the tier is either taking Ramirez if he’s there, or taking whoever is there between Machado, Riley, and Devers in the second.
Tier Three
Gunnar Henderson
Alex Bregman
There are some season outcomes here that put Bregman above Arenado, but he projects much worse. My projections are too low on him, I believe, only giving him 18 homers - but he has only hit 35 over his last two seasons, a pace of about 22 homers, so it’s not too far off. He also won’t steal bases and the batting average isn’t a sure thing - but I don’t think he’s a guy that will crater any teams with his great plate skills and the elite lineup context.
Gunnar Henderson is the toughest guy to peg at the position, and it does seem he’s been pushed up the board a little bit because of the names behind him. His upside is certainly a top-five third baseman. If you want my full thoughts on Henderson, they are here. I will come out of most drafts with a third baseman by this time, but if something happens where I don’t and he falls toward the 6th or 7th round, I will take him - he’s probably not going to bust given the plate discipline and raw power we already see from him.
Tier Four
Matt Chapman
Eugenio Suarez
I like dipping my toes into this tier IF I start my draft with something similar to Trea Turner + Gerrit Cole. That draft would mean I likely missed that Devers/Riley/Machado trio and am behind in power.
Chapman has posted barrel rates of 14% and 13% over the last two years and brought his strikeout rate down to a competitive 27% last year (from 33% in 2021). The Blue Jays lineup is a good place to be, and the park changes could help him out. He seems like a really good bet for 25+ homers and 80+ RBI, and the batting average doesn’t have to be horrible (although I’d be pretty surprised if he bests .250).
Suarez is very similar, but with a worse history of injury and worse strikeout problems. He has put up barrel rates of 15% the last two seasons, but the strikeout rates have come in at 30% and 31%. The Brl/PA remains strong at 9% and 8% - so yeah, you’re getting homers from the guy. The M’s should put a bunch of guys on base for him - so there’s really not much difference here between him and Chapman and they both make great picks if you have a good batting average foundation and need some homers.
Tier Five
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Alex Bohm
Ryan McMahon
We are now at the plate where we have multiple flaws with each player.
Hayes: Just seven homers last year, the guy cannot seem to lift the ball (50% GB%). The silver lining is that he does not strike out much (22%) and hits the ball hard quite often (47% hard-hit rate). With some adjustments (pull the ball in the air more), he could be a breakout guy - but it’s getting less and less believable that he has that in him. The things he does have going for him are the playing time (he’s one of the best defensive 3Bs in the league and still one of the Pirates’ better hitters), and the steals (20 steals last year, strong 18% attempt rate). You can get some batting average and steals from him at the very least, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him reach 20 homers either.
Bohm: Pretty similar profile to Hayes here without the steals, but with more homers. He dealt with a higher GB% early on last year but ended at a decent 46% rate. That pushed the barrel to 6.8% number. That’s below average, but definitely beats a lot of the rest of the names we’ll be stumbling across here. He slashed .280/.314/.398 last year in 630 PAs but attempted just five steals (3% attempt rate).
If you are starting Bohm, you’re really relying on the batting average, at least 15 homers, and some counting stats in the good Phillies lineup. He is not a top-of-the-order bat at this point though, but we’re talking about a young guy (26) who made some improvements last year so he can grow into a much better player as we move forward - that’s certainly possible.
McMahon: McMahon is actually a bit sneaky this year after his ADP has really fallen to a new low. He did not have a great 2022 season with a .246/.327/.414 slash line, 20 homers, 67 runs, and 67 RBI. He added seven steals there, so he wasn’t truly awful anywhere - but not above average in anything.
The good news for McMahon is that his barrel rate came up to 10.4%, and that resulted in the best Brl/PA of his career at 6.5%. Coors Field gives him a batting average floor, so we could definitely see a 25-homer, 75 RBI, .270 season from him if things go really well for him.
The projection right now is 69 R, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 8 SB, .245 - not a bad player for where he goes. Bonus points for him come when you consider that you could go ahead and bench him for a replacement on weeks when he doesn’t play in Coors (.227/.306/.399 away from home last year).
Tier Six
Josh Jung
Jordan Walker
Two rookies separate themselves a bit here by ADP, and I’m fine with that. There is almost no upside after these two, so it makes sense that they should be a tier above.
Here’s what these guys did in the minors the last two seasons:
Jung: 448 PA, .313/.379/.576, 25 HR, 3 SB, 23.7% K%
Walker: 902 PA, .310/.388/.525, 33 HR, 36 SB, 22.5% K%
Advantage WALKER - but he has yet to reach the AAA level, and Jung had a big-time injury last year that definitely hurt his performance.
Jung played some in the Majors last year and we saw that classic rookie problem where he struck out 38% of the time with a bad 69% contact rate. That came with a 10% Brl% and a low GB% of 42%, so there is definitely power potential here. I have my doubts that he can go from a 38% K% to something useful, but maybe you could attribute that number at least somewhat to the injury recovery he was going through.
As for Walker, I don’t think he even makes the team out of spring, which puts him out of contention immediately in a lot of redraft leagues. You see the minor league numbers being amazing, so there’s upside here and he is one of the game’s top prospects overall. Check your website first to make sure he has 3B eligibility - because he’s certainly not going to play third base this year with Arenado there.
I am not drafting either guy in standard leagues, but they do make for a good post-220 upside pick at the hot corner.
Tier Seven
Anthony Rendon
Justin Turner
Ha-Seong Kim
Yandy Diaz
Yoan Moncada
Eduardo Escobar
As we said, the upside is gone now. Rendon and Turner will be close to starter-level contributors as long as they stay healthy (Rendon) or fall victim to the age (Turner). Neither can hit 30 homers, and neither will steal any bases, but there is 20+ HR, .280+ AVG, 75+ RBI potential in both.
I’m not sure if Kim maintains an everyday role once Tatis Jr. comes back. I know there’s talk about Tatis playing the outfield from here on, and that would be the way that Kim stays in the lineup. Even if he does stay an everyday player, he doesn’t do a lot of great stuff for fantasy purposes and projects for a weak line of 65 R, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 12 SB, .225 AVG.
You know what Diaz is - a good OBP guy without many homers or steals. He’s a deep league safety pick just as someone who can get you PAs and some counting stats.
Moncada’s fantasy upside seems fully baked at this point, but he does remain just 27 years old so we can’t cast him to the depths quite yet. I like Escobar’s power profile, especially in the Mets lineup, HOWEVER, he has plenty of guys breathing down his neck for playing time so I doubt he reaches 500+ PAs this year and could be a straight-up drop if Brett Baty makes the team out of camp.
The Rest
Gio Urshela
Spencer Steer
Jeimer Candelario
J.D. Davis
Josh Donaldson
Brian Anderson
Evan Longoria
Patrick Wisdom
David Villar
We are well past guys you want to start at this point. The points in this group’s favor would be J.D. Davis’s barrel rate (16%), Steer’s youngness (.856 OPS in the minors last two years), Anderson’s playing time in a new Brewers lineup, and David Villar’s power profile (9% Brl%, 40% FB%).
You can look further into those names if you want, and I’ve written about them all in the team-by-team reviews - but I don’t want to spend much more time here as these are all post-300 ADP guys that most of us aren’t worried about for our leagues.
Strategy
I will repeat myself! I want one of Ramirez/Devers/Riley/Machado. If I don’t get them, I’m okay with taking a shot on Gunnar - and if I don’t do that I’m almost certainly getting Chapman or Suarez even if I have to reach a bit.
After that, I’m somewhat okay with taking Hayes for the steals and upside, and I like McMahon/Rendon/Turner for what the prices are.
Ranks
Ramirez
Witt Jr.
Machado
Riley
Devers
Arenado
Henderson
Bregman
Chapman
Suarez
Hayes
Bohm
McMahon
Rendon
Turner
Jung
Walker
Kim
Diaz
Moncada
Escobar
Steer
That’s third base for ya, check back next week for outfield and the beginnings of starting pitcher!