2024 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Preview
Previewing the shortstop position ahead of 2024 fantasy baseball draft season. I give you tiers, projections, analysis, and strategy for how to handle shortstop in any league type.
Podcast Episode
I did a shortstop preview podcast on Tim Kanak’s show last week, so I’m using that for this post instead of recording a new one. Check it out here and give Tim a follow. The guy runs several businesses, has four kids, and still finds time for fantasy baseball stuff - impressive.
Other Positions
We start all of these with the overview graphic:
This is explained in the catcher preview, so go back there and check that out if you’re confused right now.
Shortstop is in the middle of the pack in terms of depth this year. Second base is the one to prioritize early, you can wait awhile at catcher and third base and be fine, and then shortstop, first base, and outfield are somewhere in the middle there (in a five-outfielder league, things change, but we’ll get there).
Top 21
Adding one to the usual “top 20” here to get Ha-Seong Kim on the board.
Tier 1
Bobby Witt Jr.
Pretty straightforward here. Witt Jr. is a top-four hitter in the fantasy game this year with 40-40 potential. I don’t think much more needs to be said, the steals and homers alone get him to first-round value, and then he adds in a good batting average and a potential huge season in runs and RBI with an improving Royals lineup.
The only knock on him is that he probably can’t score 120 runs like Acuna and Betts can, but yeah, I don’t think it’s controversial at all that he gets a tier all to himself.
Tier 2
Trea Turner
Francisco Lindor
These two are very similar players. They are the same age and are both solid HR+SB options. Lindor won the 2023 battle, having one of his best seasons while Turner had a slight down-year. Turner has the historical consistency edge here, and he’s in a better lineup for 2024.
There is a pretty big gap in their ADPs, which makes me want to draft Lindor more than I want to draft Turner:
Lindor is a late-second or early-third-rounder, while Turner will likely go near the end of the first round in your league. In a 12-team league, if you are picking 9th-11th, Turner will probably be there for you in the first round, but it’s likely enough that Lindor would make it back to you for your third-round pick that I would tend to go with an outfielder instead of Trea and hope you can capitalize on that Lindor value.
So that’s a general strategy point there. If you want one of these guys, I would advise you to try to get Lindor, but it depends on where your pick is and whatnot. Anyway, there are plenty more options to like after this tier, so I’m not going to come into the draft set on bagging one of these guys in the top two tiers.
Tier 3
Gunnar Henderson
Corey Seager
Overall, Seager has gone well ahead of Gunnar, but that has begun to even out in a hurry after the news about Seager’s offseason surgery.
It’s not 100% certain that Seager will be ready for the beginning of the season, so you could potentially be looking at a couple of missed weeks there and then maybe even some reduced performance. The team doesn’t seem to think it’s anything to worry about though, so there could end up being a pretty nice discount on Seager here. That will put him in the conversation for me, as previously I wasn’t very interested in using a second-round pick on a guy that doesn’t steal any bases. He would pair well with Corbin Carroll or someone like that where you have a ton of steals and just need some batting average and homers, though.
As for Henderson, he had a breakout season last year, but it wasn’t steady stud production the whole time. He started a little bit slow but ended up being a very good fantasy producer and setting himself up to be a fixture at the top of the 3B/SS positions for years to come. I’m not over the moon to draft him myself, but the floor is fine and the ceiling is huge.
I am cool on this tier. I don’t need either of these guys, but I’m fine with either. As I said with Seager, I want him in the 3rd or 4th round rather than the second, and I have to already have a steals guy to draft him.
Tier 4
Bo Bichette
C.J. Abrams
Elly De La Cruz
Matt McLain
Oneil Cruz
A lot of people will have Elly above this tier, and some people will have Bichette/Abrams lower. It’s a mixed bag here in terms of how you get your fantasy production, so let’s highlight all four names separately here.
Bichette: High floor, but a lower ceiling. Probably won’t steal 15+ bags, and doesn’t have a 35-homer upside like other guys. But he’s safe.
Abrams: Gives you a nice steals floor and could go 40-50 bags there. But the real reason I have him here instead of down a tier is I think there could be gains on the power side. He’s just 23 years old and made a significant step forward last year, so it won’t be surprising if he makes another one.
Elly: Talked a ton on the podcast above about Elly. The ceiling is crazy high, but the floor is crazy low. It’s not my general strategy to take risks like this regardless of the upside, but the thing that makes Elly a fade for me is the slight risk that he loses playing time. He was not great at the plate last year, and the Reds just have so many good infielders. I’m not saying he’s likely at all to end up in AAA, but he’s the only one anywhere near the top dozen shortstops where that could plausibly happen, and he could also end up just in a rotation where he sits once or twice a week.
McLain: Talked a lot about him in the 2B preview. He’s between Bichette and Elly with the safety and risk. Not as safe as Bichette, but not as risky as Elly. More upside than Bichette, but less than Elly. So he settles right between there and I like him in this tier.
Oneil: Long time since we’ve seen him, but he has all of the upside that Elly does with a little bit less of the risk. He will play every day and lead off, and no matter how much he struggles he’s not leaving the lineup. The risk is that he whiffs and strikes out a ton. Unlike Elly, though, he’s been able to lift the ball well. I like him a lot.
The ADP range here is huge:
Elly 23
Abrams 37
Bichette 40
McLain 63
Oneil 80
So that makes Oneil Cruz a shortstop target for me, just because here I’m grouping him with guys 40+ picks ahead of him.
But if you’re trying to draft a safe team that just chips its way to the playoffs in your league, this probably isn’t the tier for you.
The full post is for paid subs only, so become a paid member today to get this full post along with everything else I do. Check out the about page here for more information.