2024 Team Previews: Chicago Cubs
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
Welcome back to the 2024 team-by-team previews and rankings series! Become a paid sub today to get the full series along with 2024 season-long projections, dashboards, tools, rankings, and so much more!
Introduction & Links to All Teams Here
If this is your first time visiting the MLB Data Warehouse, learn more about it here.
Cubs Intro
I have been to Wrigley Field one time. It was 2015, me and three buddies made the seven hour drive from Pittsburgh to Chicago and did all of the Chicago stuff, timed around the Pirates being in Chicago.
And the game we went to ended up being one of the most iconic Pirate games of that time period.
I’ll do the math for you there, they were down 7-1 going into the sixth and they battled back to make it a 10-10 game that went into extra innings. And that is when this happened:
If you’re not going to watch the video, the Cubs had the bases loaded with one out and Matt Szczur hits a shallow fly ball to right field off of one Radhames Liz. Pirates ultra-best right fielder Gregory Polanco comes in to make the catch, which would have been the second out and definitely not allowed the winning run to score, but Polanco falls over like an oaf and the Pirates lose. We were sitting on that first base line too, we were probably like 100 feet at most from the play.
So yeah I’m not a big Cubs guy. I never liked it when the Pirates would play the Cubs when I was a kid and I had to watch the games on freaking WGN. I always thought their broadcast looked stupid and frankly Wrigley field is stupid and ugly.
I’m a traditionalist in many other aspects of life, but just build a new baseball stadium already holy crap. There are seats that place buried deep underneath the second level and they go so far back where you just flat out can’t see anything. Some of the greatest architecture ever built was built in the 1500’s, but dudes in Chicago in 1914 can’t figure out that they’re putting 10% of the seats in places where you basically only get to watch the first baseman play?
I guess it’s fine. Back then you didn’t have the choice to watch the game on TV so you were probably just cool with seeing any little bit of it, but it’s untenable today and they should build a new stadium. Not that there’s any room for one since that place is basically just in someone’s backyard. So weird.
Any-hoo, the Cubs had a decent year in 2023 but ended up missing the playoffs, and now they’ve lost Marcus Stroman to free agency and are probably going to lose Cody Bellinger in the same fashion. They countered that with Shota Imanaga and Michael Busch, and while there is always plenty of upside in the unknown - chances are this team will be worse this year. Lots to talk about though so let’s have at it.
Hitters
Nico Hoerner
Age: 26
Pos: 2B/SS
With Bellinger gone, Hoerner becomes the first Cub of the board in fantasy drafts, which is a little surprising. Nico is a good player, no doubt, but I don’t think he’s a guy that will ever be generating MVP votes or anything like that. That said, he was quite good for fantasy purposes in 2023:
688 PA, 98 R, 9 HR, 68 RBI, 42 SB, .284/.348/.384, .732 OPS
That is a lot of runs and steals and a high batting average, so certainly a good roto contributor there. If you do take him, though, you’re going to have to catch up on homers elsewhere. Nine homers from an everyday player is very low.
This is always who he has been, so we don’t have any real hope for a sudden 15+ homer season. What that means is that we must keep most of those runs, steals, and batting average to pay off this ADP. I don’t see any reason he can’t do it, everything below the hood looks good as far as that stuff goes.
One of the best contact rates in the league, and the 11th-highest stolen base attempt rate in the league with an 86% success rate.
It’s pretty clear who Hoerner is. I guess the problem/question we have is about the ADP. He was cheap last season, and now he’s an easy top-75 pick (APD of 63 as of this writing). My roto value on him is $10.16, which is #71 no the list - so we’re not far off. Everything seems fine with Hoerner, he’s not a buy or a sell for me - just someone you have to take knowing that you’ll need some extra homers in your lineup somewhere (pairs well if you use a first or second-round pick on a Judge/Soto/Yordan or something like that).
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Gleyber Torres, Josh Lowe
JA Projection: 671 PA, 89 R, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 32 SB, .275/.340.391, .731 OPS
Seiya Suzuki
Age: 29
Pos: OF
It was a weird year for Suzuki who dealt with multiple injuries and went through a few “streaks”. He was pretty good at the beginning, and then very bad for a bit, but he finished the year extremely well. When the dust settled, it looks like this:
583 PA, 74 R, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 6 SB, .285/.357/.483, .840 OPS
There is nothing wrong with an .84O OPS - but you would have to say that the 26 HR+SB is bad.
He has had a lot of trouble staying on the field in his two-year MLB career, but one thing he’s been good at while healthy is the barrel + contact combination that I always look for.
Since coming into the league:
1,023 PA, .275/.344/.462, 34 HR, 10.7% Brl%, 23.5% K%, 78% Contact%
He dropped his stolen base attempt rate from 12.5% to 8.6% from 2022 to 2023, so that’s a bit concerning. We really do want 15+ steals for most of the players we draft. I’m not saying Suzuki can’t do that, but that would entail more than doubling his production from 2023, so that’s definitely in doubt.
I think Suzuki is a very good hitter and he’ll give you a decent batting average with 25 homers and a good supply of RBI while healthy, but I can’t say he’s a potential game-breaking fantasy player or anything like that.
By the projection, he’s a $10.62 player, the #64 ranked hitter. That well outdoes his 116 ADP, so there’s a buying opportunity in my opinion here. I think Suzuki is better than people notice, and a fully healthy and lucky season could turn into something like an 80-30-100-15-.280 season.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: George Springer, Zack Gelof
JA Projection: 599 PA, 78 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 7 SB, .277/.354/.472, .827 OPS
Dansby Swanson
Age: 30
Pos: SS
It was another year without Swanson doing anything fantastic, but without him letting anybody down too badly either.
638 PA, 81 R, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 9 SB, .244/.328/.416, .744 OPS, 24% K%
Good, not great home run production, and declining steals.
The last three years:
21: 653 PA, .248/.311/.449, .760 OPS, 26% K%, 8% BB%, 27 HR, 9 SB
22: 696 PA, .277/.329/.447, .776 OPS, 26% K%, 7% BB%, 25 HR, 18 SB
23: 638 PA, .244/.328/.416, .744 OPS, 24% K%, 10% BB%, 22 HR, 9 SB
So that’s his worst HR and SB production of the last three years (okay tied in steals but whatever), not what you like to see - but there’s still nothing here to hate on.
Swanson does enough of everything to give him a competitive roto value mark ($11.85 in my model, which feels high), but he’s at a very deep position and doesn’t have nearly the upside that a lot of these other younger guys do.
But I like drafting the “boring and solid” veterans just fine - those are often the keys to winning your league. Swanson is a top-50 hitter by my projection, which may be questionable, and his ADP is way down at #131.
Let’s check both systems for Swanson:
My proj: 641 PA, 81 R, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB, .262/.334/.449, .783 OPS
Steamer: 641 PA, 77 R, 22 HR, 77 RBI, 10 SB, .250/.319/.419, .738 OPS
So that’s a pretty big difference in slugging, and Steamer is much more in line with his actual slugging percentage last year which was that .416 mark. If we combine 2022 and 2023, I get closer as his actual slugging in these last two years was .432.
Tough call, but it’s still pretty clear to me that Swanson is a boring shortstop that you probably don’t want to start at a deep position, but he’s a guy that gets to be too cheap because he’s older and boring.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Gleyber Torres, Xander Bogaerts
Ian Happ
Age: 29
Pos: OF
Happ continued his “do a little bit of everything” ways in 2023, but it was probably the best fantasy season of his career. He stayed fully healthy (that helps quite a bit…) and put up these numbers:
691 PA, 86 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 14 SB, .248/.360/.431, .791 OPS
Let’s get to the percentile plots quickly:
He doesn’t swing much, and has a good eye - and that turns into a high walk rate. The strikeout and contact rates are middling, and the barrel rate is only a bit above average.
There’s nothing great in the profile, but he’s another guy who doesn’t struggle anywhere.
A professional hitter with limited power numbers and not many steals. Better in OBP/points leagues, and you’re probably not going to ever kick yourself for fading him in drafts, but he also tends too far in drafts because of the boringness.
Seems like a lot of these Cubs hitters are the same! Boring but fine fantasy adds because their prices are a bit too cheap due to the lack of upside. I’ve typed that a few times already!
I have Happ as a $10.83 player by the numbers, which puts him also in the top 70 and his ADP often goes past pick 152. I prefer Happ in OBP leagues, as I said, but he’s not a fade for me in standard roto by any stretch.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: TJ Friedl, Seiya Suzuki
JA Projection: 659 PA, 81 R, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 14 SB, .256/.354/.431, .785 OPS
The rest of the post is behind the paywall. Subscribe today to get this full series along with my 2024 projections, rankings, and much, much more!