MLB Daily Notes - July 19th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Cleared out the reader questions mailbag yesterday - posted those Q&A’s yesterday here.
Something seems to have gone wrong with the prop betting tracker, because nothing new showed up despite us definitely having some recommended bets on there for the entire day. I believe it would have been a losing day, however, so again - don’t fully believe the trackers here, I admit that they aren’t working exactly how I want them to.
Prop bet trackers:
It was a massive day offensively.
Your daily dose of Python code here to show you how that plot was made!
Most of the work there is done by that getSavHitterStats function, which looks something like this (a very limited screenshot here):
The limited screen shot and the fact that I don’t even explain or share my dataset makes this all useless even for people who know a bit of Python - but it’s a good and quick way to show how to get a list of dates and iterate through them - I use that kind of loop a lot for a bunch of different things.
I will be launching some more Python content soon, although it might take until the offseason to really get into that. It’s going to cost money though, just be aware! I think I’ll eventually have a bunch of documents and Python code notebooks available for people who pay me. I’ll start with the basics and then quickly get into the MLB Savant dataset, since that’s where almost everything I do is sourced. Should be fun, much more to come!
Pitchers - Yesterday
Pitchers scoring negative fantasy points yesterday
Davies -15
Keller -8
Wells -6
Manoah -6
Giolito -5
Skubal -4
Woo -4
Elder -2
Weird stuff.
The guy that didn’t have trouble were Logan Allen who had a nice five scoreless innings against the scuffling Pirates, he struck out eight. He threw only 77 pitches which kept him away from a quality start, but the SwStr% was nice at 13% and he earned a lot of strikes at 52%.
Domingo German was the man of the day with a massive, massive 27 whiffs. That was the seventh-most of any outing this year:
So that’s pretty wild. It came against the Angels, who are slashing a not-great but not-terrible .252/.452/.783 since Mike Trout hit the shelf.
The Mitch Keller train finally crashed after a weeks long descent, he was completely terrible yesterday. 102 pitches and five whiffs, and the called strikes weren’t there either at 19% CSW%. The Pirates season is officially dead, I am calling it. Keller will probably have more good starts, but maybe he’s breaking down a bit - and if his command is anything other than pristine he’s going to be about a league-average pitcher at best.
It was a pretty sweet day for my “Second Half Buys & Sells” list. A bunch of “sells” got rocked (Keller, Wells, Elder), and a bunch of buys showed out (Nola, Torkelson, Riley, Suzuki, Ober). I will try to remember to do a recap of that at the end of the year to see if I was on the right track or not.
Taj Bradley had an encouraging start against the Rangers. He threw 95 pitches (most importantly, maybe) and had a nice 14% SwStr% and a 55% Strike%! He’s shown that ability to throw a bunch of strikes while getting a bunch of whiffs a lot this year, which makes me really excited for his future - but he’s also clearly shown plenty of downside. I’m also not sure how many more innings he’s going to get with the Rays - but that might not actually be a concern because he’s still 50 innings short of what he did last year:
I’d definitely be adding/starting him in deep leagues - the ceiling is ridiculous.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Allen - 671106 (vs. PIT): 30.05 Points
2. Patrick Sandoval (vs. NYY): 29.49 Points
3. Luis Medina (vs. BOS): 26.36 Points
4. Aaron Nola (vs. MIL): 26.09 Points
5. Joe Musgrove (vs. TOR): 25.9 Points
6. Logan Webb (vs. CIN): 23.35 Points
7. Taj Bradley (vs. TEX): 21.05 Points
8. Chris Murphy (vs. OAK): 20.71 Points
9. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. TB): 18.5 Points
10. Edward Cabrera (vs. STL): 18.25 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Domingo German (NYY): 27 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. Aaron Nola (PHI): 18 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 17 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
4. Bailey Ober (MIN): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
5. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
6. Taj Bradley (TB): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
7. Hunter Brown (HOU): 14 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
8. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
9. Luis Medina (OAK): 13 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
10. Bryan Woo (SEA): 11 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luke Weaver (CIN): 60.7 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
2. Taj Bradley (TB): 54.7 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
3. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 53.3 Strike%, 26.1 Ball%
4. Michael Grove (LAD): 52.7 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
5. Logan Allen (CLE): 51.9 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
6. Cole Irvin (BAL): 51.2 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
7. Aaron Nola (PHI): 51.0 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
8. Domingo German (NYY): 50.9 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
9. Bailey Ober (MIN): 50.0 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
10. Chris Murphy (BOS): 49.2 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
11. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 49.0 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
12. Luis Medina (OAK): 48.8 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
13. Joe Musgrove (SD): 48.6 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
14. Bryce Elder (ATL): 47.4 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
15. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 46.5 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Patrick Corbin is still throwing the slider quite hard, which we highlighted a start or two ago. He had another very competitive 13.1% SwStr% yesterday, but a mediocre 46% Strike%. Still nothing to do here - but maybe he’s gotten himself out of the absolute bottom tier in the league. It’s probably fair to say that at this point, he’s not completely depraved.
Nathan Eovaldi didn’t start his second half with returned fastball velocity, and the SwStr% was down to 11%. That’s starting to get a little bit concerning! The SwStr% has been descending lately, so maybe his arm is tiring - I’m not sure!
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (41 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 82.4
Luke Weaver's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 88.1
Patrick Sandoval's SL velo (31 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 88.8
Luke Weaver's FF velo (33 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 95.5
Patrick Sandoval's FF velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.0
Jordan Montgomery's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.3
Logan Allen's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 90.4
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 74.7
Tarik Skubal's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.5
Nathan Eovaldi's FC velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 89.0
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 93.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bryan Woo's FC usage (18.4%) up 12.2 points
Jameson Taillon's FF usage (48.9%) up 15.0 points
Jameson Taillon's CU usage (27.2%) up 12.7 points
Julio Teheran's FC usage (42.5%) up 15.9 points
Lucas Giolito's CH usage (34.0%) up 11.3 points
Luis Medina's SI usage (33.8%) up 26.9 points
Michael Grove's FC usage (19.8%) up 16.6 points
Mitch Keller's ST usage (32.4%) up 16.8 points
Zach Davies's FF usage (41.6%) up 22.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bobby Miller Sinker: -26.7%
Luis Medina Sinker: +26.6%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -21.1%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.7%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +16.3%
Jon Gray Slider: +15.0%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: +14.8%
Matt Manning 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +14.3%
Brandon Bielak Slider: -14.0%
Yusei Kikuchi 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.1%
Sonny Gray Sweeper: +13.1%
Bryan Woo Slider: -12.7%
Blake Snell Curveball: +12.6%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +12.5%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -12.4%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -12.3%
Yu Darvish Curveball: +12.0%
Edward Cabrera 4-Seam Fastball: +12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 74 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Domingo German - 95 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 72 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 49.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 39.0% K%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 38.9% K%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 37.1% K%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Domingo German - 95 TBF, 33.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 39.1% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 29.8% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Domingo German - 95 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Medina - 70 TBF, 62.2% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 74 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Charlie Morton - 67 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 65 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 103 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 72 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 76 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 74 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Aaron Nola - 105 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 76 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 30.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Jose Berrios - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 31.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 39.0 K%, 2.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 48 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 56.7% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Hendricks - +2.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.5% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Matt Manning - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +4.6% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Logan Webb - +3.9% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Kodai Senga - +4.0% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Hitters
Look at all those barrels!
Multiple Barrels
Austin Riley (ATL) 5 PA, 17 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brett Baty (NYM) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christian Walker (ARI) 6 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Dairon Blanco (KC) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
JJ Bleday (OAK) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jake Burger (CWS) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Josh Naylor (CLE) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ryan Noda (OAK) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Wilmer Flores (SF) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Jonathan India, Yesterday: 111.4 Previous High: 111.3
Patrick Wisdom, Yesterday: 114.4 Previous High: 114.2
Seiya Suzuki, Yesterday: 114.6 Previous High: 114.4
Hardest Hit Balls
Jake Burger (CWS) - 116.7mph - double
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 114.6mph - single
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 114.4mph - home_run
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 114.2mph - nan
Oscar Colas (CWS) - 114.2mph - field_out
Henry Davis (PIT) - 113.0mph - nan
Javier Baez (DET) - 112.9mph - nan
William Contreras (MIL) - 112.8mph - field_out
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 111.9mph - single
Jonathan India (CIN) - 111.4mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Byron Buxton - 70 PA, 0.217 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.117 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 71 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Max Muncy - 72 PA, 0.304 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Anthony Rizzo - 78 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.269 xwOBA, 0.057 Diff
Willy Adames - 92 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 68 PA, 0.304 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 78 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.393 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff
Ty France - 74 PA, 0.166 wOBA, 0.217 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Leody Taveras - 76 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff
Matt Thaiss - 63 PA, 0.311 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, 0.048 Diff
Bottom 10
Jarren Duran - 60 PA, 0.488 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, -0.169 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 81 PA, 0.495 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, -0.165 Diff
Luke Raley - 67 PA, 0.385 wOBA, 0.251 xwOBA, -0.134 Diff
Mike Ford - 63 PA, 0.483 wOBA, 0.376 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 69 PA, 0.427 wOBA, 0.327 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Ozzie Albies - 82 PA, 0.399 wOBA, 0.3 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Chas McCormick - 63 PA, 0.477 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 73 PA, 0.506 wOBA, 0.413 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Alex Kirilloff - 63 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Masataka Yoshida - 66 PA, 0.429 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Joey Gallo - 41 PA, 14 BIP, 4 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Francisco Alvarez - 52 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 64 PA, 38 BIP, 10 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 41 PA, 24 BIP, 6 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Joey Votto - 55 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Ryan Noda - 59 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Corey Seager - 70 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 61 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Max Muncy - 68 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Jake Burger - 58 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Mookie Betts - 74 PA, 0.518 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 61 PA, 0.482 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 64 PA, 0.467 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 70 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Josh Naylor - 59 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 74 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 41 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 70 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 64 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Francisco Alvarez - 52 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Alex Bregman - 74 PA, 108 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 73 PA, 106 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 50 PA, 70 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 52 PA, 82 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 74 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 72 PA, 137 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 77 PA, 129 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Travis Jankowski - 45 PA, 68 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 56 PA, 100 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Justin Turner - 69 PA, 132 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Javier Baez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Alex Call - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Trea Turner - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
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