MLB Daily Notes - September 7th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Needless to say, I did not hit on that 2% 7:30 sleep chance again today. What goes up must come down, sleep is a zero-sum game and the kids were all wide awake at 6am. But I was ready for it.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Tyler Glasnow went for the Daily Notes Pitching Triple Crown (is that what I’ve been calling it? I feel like I’ve used a few different terms for that…). He had just a massive start
6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 14 K, 1 BB, 21.4% SwStr%, 63.1% Strike%
SIXTY-THREE PERCENT STRIKES. That’s the seventh-best effort of the season:
I had Glasnow as my #7 SP for the second half, and it seems like I was too low! From that article:
I’m fully in on Glasnow, but it’s possible I’m not penalizing him enough for the fact that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. There are only about 15 starts left to stay healthy for, and I have very little doubt that he doesn’t end up as a top-tier pitcher if he does stay healthy through that.
I don’t know what else to say, Glasnow is simply one of the best pitchers in the game when he’s healthy and this has been pretty clear for a few years now.
K-BB% Leaders (10+ GS)
Strider 30.2%Glasnow 26.5%Gausman 24.8%Ryan 24.1%Skubal 23.6%
Here’s the pitch mix:
He is so tall that he gets like halfway to the hitter before releasing the pitch, and then the fastball comes in above 96 miles per hour - it’s just a tough thing to deal with and that has resulted in a very nice 11.4% SwStr% on the four-seamer with a strong 54% Strike%.
And that sets up the absolutely filthy slider/curveball combination he has. Total ace, I just hope we can get a few healthy seasons out of him soon.
Edward Cabrera also did some bulk relief work and performed very well with a 15.3% SwStr%.
4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 8 K, 2 BB
Good stuff there, I don’t think we need to bother with Cabrera right now - but he’s certainly someone who could bust out as an ace if he can ever figure out the command.
Justin Verlander got the best of Max Scherzer in that big matchup yesterday
Verlander: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
Scherzer: 3 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 4 K, 2 BB
The Rangers are now in 3rd place in their division (3 behind the Astros, 1 behind the Mariners). They just got swept by the Astros, and by my count they’ve won just four of their last 18 games. I personally hope they can find a way into the playoffs, because that roster is a really good and fun one - but they are certainly #ExperiencingTheNegativeSideOfRandomVariation right now #ETNSORVRN, otherwise known as cold.
Spencer Strider also got hit around
2.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 5 K, 3 BB
Really bad outing for him with a 40% Strike%, but he still got 10 whiffs on 65 pitches (15.4% SwStr%). Nothing more to say about that!
Jordan Wicks struck out nine Pirates in his Major League debut a few weeks ago, and he’s given up just four earned runs in 16.2 innings so far in the Majors, but yesterday he was quite bad, giving up nine hits and getting just one strikeout. Here’s the pitch mix:
That’s a very bad SwStr% and Strike% combination, and it would seem like his fastball stinks - so not good early signs, but we need a lot more data on him to make any big judgements. Leave him alone for fantasy purposes right now.
Gavin Williams threw five innings, giving up just one run and getting the win - but everything else kind of sucked
89 pitches, 7.9% SwStr%, 43.8% Strike%, 42.7% Ball%
He had that electric few starts with a 40%+ K%, but overall it’s been much less sunny.
14 GS, 13.7% SwStr%, 24.4% K%, 10.5% BB%, 39% GB%
That’s a 14% K-BB% which is far from what we want. Here is the arsenal:
He’s the opposite of a lot of young pitchers we’ve seen, he has a good fastball but nothing great backing it up. He needs some work, but the talent is certainly there - and I’d consider starting him the rest of the way out if there are no other great options - which there probably aren’t!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Glasnow (vs. BOS): 41.1 Points
2. Zack Wheeler (vs. SD): 29.7 Points
3. Edward Cabrera (vs. LAD): 27.2 Points
4. Justin Verlander (vs. TEX): 26.75 Points
5. Logan Gilbert (vs. CIN): 22.59 Points
6. Touki Toussaint (vs. KC): 22.5 Points
7. Clarke Schmidt (vs. DET): 21.24 Points
8. Gavin Williams (vs. MIN): 18.25 Points
9. Jose Butto (vs. WSH): 18.04 Points
10. JP Sears (vs. TOR): 14.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 22 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
2. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 19 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
3. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 17 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
4. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Justin Verlander (HOU): 14 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 14 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
7. Lance Lynn (LAD): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Joan Adon (WSH): 12 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
9. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 11 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
10. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 11 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 63.1 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
2. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 61.1 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
3. Michael Wacha (SD): 53.2 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
4. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 53.1 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
5. Joe Ryan (MIN): 52.8 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
6. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 51.4 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
7. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 50.6 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
8. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 50.5 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
9. Lyon Richardson (CIN): 47.4 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
10. Max Scherzer (TEX): 46.7 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
11. Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR): 45.5 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
12. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 45.2 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
13. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 44.9 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
14. Alex Wood (SF): 44.2 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
15. Justin Verlander (HOU): 44.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Gavin Williams's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 86.8
Nick Pivetta's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 80.8
Patrick Sandoval's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.4
Clarke Schmidt's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.9
Hyun Jin Ryu's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 67.1
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 77.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Chris Flexen's FF usage (55.6%) up 12.1 points
Hyun Jin Ryu's FC usage (31.5%) up 18.3 points
JP Sears's CH usage (26.7%) up 12.7 points
Jaime Barria's CH usage (24.2%) up 10.7 points
Jordan Lyles's ST usage (34.1%) up 10.8 points
Jordan Wicks's FF usage (44.8%) up 24.0 points
Michael Wacha's SI usage (23.4%) up 10.2 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (29.9%) up 20.1 points
Touki Toussaint's FS usage (27.5%) up 10.6 points
Zack Wheeler's SI usage (28.6%) up 10.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +21.6%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +21.3%
Zach Davies Sinker: -19.2%
Alec Marsh Slider: -18.9%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +18.7%
Kyle Muller Slider: -17.0%
Michael Soroka 4-Seam Fastball: +16.6%
Johnny Cueto Cutter: -16.1%
Michael Soroka Sinker: -15.3%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +15.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 91 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 68 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 76 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 89 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Blake Snell - 78 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 71 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 101 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 91 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 40.0% K%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 39.5% K%
Spencer Strider - 89 TBF, 37.1% K%
Kodai Senga - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Charlie Morton - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Blake Snell - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Jon Gray - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 36.7% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 96 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Kodai Senga - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Pedro Avila - 82 TBF, 70.4% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 97 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Alex Cobb - 93 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 98 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Hyun Jin Ryu - 83 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 83 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 40.0 K%, 3.3 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 39.5 K%, 7.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 31.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 61.9% GB%
Max Fried - 77 TBF, 31.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 32.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Robert Garcia - 52 TBF, 30.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 60.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 30.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 31.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 33.3 K%, 3.1 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Chris Bassitt - +2.7% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.8% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +4.4% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Zack Wheeler - +2.4% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Cole Ragans - +3.7% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Mitch Keller - +4.8% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Javier Assad - +2.3% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Graham Ashcraft - +6.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Griffin Canning - +4.8% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +4.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Jhony Brito - +2.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Hitters
Nobody has talked about Jose Abreu in quite a while. Here’s his season by month:
April: .237/.263/.272, 0 HR, 6% Brl%, 22% K%
May: .180/.286/.247, 1 HR, 1.5% Brl%, 23% K%
June: .295/.314/.516, 5 HR, 9.5% Brl%, 23.5% K%
July: .263/.333/.421, 4 HR, 11.8% Brl%, 18.1% K%
Aug-Sep: .197/.278/.394, 4 HR, 12.3% Brl%, 17.7% K%
So all-in-all he’s been garbage for fantasy purposes (.661 OPS, 14 HR), but he hasn’t been as bad as he showed early on. I think we should probably just avoid him next year - although he will be extremely cheap - so maybe the RBIs can keep him afloat in deeper leagues for a corner infield spot.
Multiple Barrels
Jose Abreu (HOU) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Marcus Semien (TEX) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Ji Hwan Bae, Yesterday: 110.2 Previous High: 108.0
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 119.5mph - field_out
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 114.6mph - single
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 113.5mph - double
Jose Abreu (HOU) - 113.3mph - home_run
Matt Olson (ATL) - 112.0mph - foul
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.0mph - home_run
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 111.7mph - single
Ronny Mauricio (NYM) - 111.5mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.0mph - single
Ian Happ (CHC) - 110.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jose Ramirez - 77 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Salvador Perez - 65 PA, 0.204 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 79 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 0.331 wOBA, 0.402 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Logan O'Hoppe - 60 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Alec Bohm - 79 PA, 0.371 wOBA, 0.436 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Drew Waters - 66 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 76 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.414 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Austin Riley - 81 PA, 0.336 wOBA, 0.394 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Trent Grisham - 62 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Bottom 10
Anthony Santander - 65 PA, 0.482 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.14 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 73 PA, 0.563 wOBA, 0.43 xwOBA, -0.133 Diff
Alex Bregman - 92 PA, 0.485 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Luis Rengifo - 75 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Nolan Jones - 75 PA, 0.4 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Trea Turner - 75 PA, 0.511 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Adam Duvall - 81 PA, 0.45 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 78 PA, 0.35 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
J.P. Crawford - 73 PA, 0.453 wOBA, 0.352 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Gabriel Moreno - 58 PA, 0.437 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
We all got excited about David Schneider after his first weekend, but I haven’t mentioned him since. Here is what he has been up to
82 PA, .385/.512/.846, 7 HR, 23.3% Brl%, 26.8% K%, 18.3% BB%
So that’s… insanely good.
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Davis Schneider - 50 PA, 27 BIP, 8 Brls, 29.6 Brl%
Mike Ford - 54 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 45 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 75 PA, 52 BIP, 13 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Trea Turner - 75 PA, 53 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Nelson Velazquez - 61 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 61 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Mitch Garver - 70 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 74 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 0.532 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 75 PA, 0.521 xwOBA
Mitch Garver - 70 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Jose Abreu - 48 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Davis Schneider - 50 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 79 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 84 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Yoan Moncada - 64 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Gleyber Torres - 69 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Julio Rodriguez - 73 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Nick Madrigal - 52 PA, 86 Swings, 94.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 120 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 92 PA, 124 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 60 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Justin Turner - 80 PA, 147 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 75 PA, 154 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 84 PA, 159 Swings, 86.8 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 78 PA, 142 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 77 PA, 138 Swings, 86.2 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 75 PA, 131 Swings, 85.5 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Tommy Edman - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Dylan Moore - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Nolan Jones - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Tommy Edman - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Trevor Story - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Michael Harris II - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Harrison Bader - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Harper - 80 PA, 15.0 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 48 PA, 8.3 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 73 PA, 17.8 K%, 19.6 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 75 PA, 14.7 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Mitch Garver - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 22.2 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 84 PA, 9.5 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 84 PA, 14.3 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 50 PA, 18.0 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Marcell Ozuna - 123 PA, +0.131 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 93 PA, +0.105 xwOBA
Seiya Suzuki - 108 PA, +0.105 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 121 PA, +0.093 xwOBA
Yoan Moncada - 97 PA, +0.093 xwOBA
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 116 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Julio Rodriguez - 113 PA, +0.086 xwOBA
Mitch Garver - 102 PA, +0.082 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 114 PA, +0.075 xwOBA
Trea Turner - 112 PA, +0.075 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Trea Turner - 112 PA, +12.2 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 119 PA, +11.0 Brl%
J.P. Crawford - 81 PA, +8.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 115 PA, +8.4 Brl%
Gabriel Arias - 90 PA, +8.2 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 123 PA, +8.1 Brl%
Nelson Velazquez - 80 PA, +8.0 Brl%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 116 PA, +7.7 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 121 PA, +7.0 Brl%
D.J. LeMahieu - 92 PA, +6.9 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Kole Calhoun - 104 PA, +12.5 Cont%
Michael Massey - 111 PA, +12.4 Cont%
Brice Turang - 96 PA, +10.5 Cont%
Eloy Jimenez - 88 PA, +9.3 Cont%
Josh Lowe - 83 PA, +8.3 Cont%
Chas McCormick - 98 PA, +7.7 Cont%
Randy Arozarena - 120 PA, +7.6 Cont%
Mike Moustakas - 92 PA, +7.3 Cont%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 138 PA, +7.3 Cont%
Xander Bogaerts - 119 PA, +7.2 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Drew Waters - 90 PA, -11.0 K%
Kole Calhoun - 104 PA, -10.9 K%
Yordan Alvarez - 123 PA, -10.5 K%
Seiya Suzuki - 108 PA, -10.3 K%
Julio Rodriguez - 113 PA, -9.5 K%
Jake Burger - 110 PA, -9.2 K%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 119 PA, -9.0 K%
Jeremy Pena - 119 PA, -8.9 K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 138 PA, -8.7 K%
Alec Bohm - 114 PA, -8.4 K%
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