2023 Starting Pitcher Preview, Part 3
I am onto part three of the starting pitcher preview.
Check out the rest of the positional previews at the links below.
We are 25 pitchers in, and we’re ready for two more large tiers of very talented pitchers. I am going to try to shrink up the tiers a bit as we move forward, but it’s tough to do - a lot of these guys are just very similar. Again, we’re tiering by ADP, but it’s up to me to draw the cut lines. Here’s tier four:
Tier Four
Triston McKenzie
Robbie Ray
George Kirby
Luis Severino
Hunter Greene
Logan Gilbert
Logan Webb
Nestor Cortes
Blake Snell
We have nine pitchers here. All of them have previously been fantasy aces, or undoubtedly have the talent to do so. Let’s just keep ripping along with the player-by-player breakdown.
McKenzie: He’s one of these young players that has shown the ability to dominate, and that has fantasy players jumping on him with hopes of the final step forward in 2023. I suppose you could say he did that last year as he threw 191.1 innings with a 2.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Those numbers are striking. However, the K% was below 26% and the “stuff” numbers aren’t thrilling (104 Stuff+).
He throws his four-seamer a ton (56%), and it doesn’t look fantastic by the numbers (10.6% SwStr%, 27.1% CSW%). The Stuff+ mark on it is great, but it does make you wonder why he doesn’t get more whiffs with the pitch! He slider is short of great as well with a 14.2% SwStr%, but the changeup was really tough to hit with a 23% SwStr%. Three pitches and none of them are awful by any means.
The xFIP was much higher than his ERA at 3.77, and we can’t fully trust the walk rate after he put up an 11.7% BB% in 2021. I could see McKenzie justifying the price here, but there are just too many red flags for me to take him.
Ray: Another full season on the hill for Ray last year. He put up a 3.71 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP on a 27% K% and an 8% BB%. All of those numbers were steps in the wrong direction as compared to 2021. His Stuff+ was average at 101, but he still put up a great 15.4% SwStr%.
He has added on a sinker to his repertoire, which is good to see, but I don’t know - who is really getting excited about Robbie Ray at this point? Maybe he’s cheap enough to be a viable pick, but I really don’t like the fact that his walk rate came back to league average after the 6.7% mark in 2021. That great SwStr% was also a step backward from the heights of 2021 where he put up a 16.8% mark. Ray has been frustrating for us his whole career, so it’s tough to click on that button. This isn’t a great argument against him, but I don’t know - I just like the guys behind him more.
Kirby: I really, really like Kirby. I probably like him too much given his pedestrian 11% SwStr% and 94 Stuff+. That resulted in just a low 24.5% K%, but it did come with a sparkling 4% BB%. If I thought he was really a 24% K% pitcher, I wouldn’t be drafting him in this tier. However, I think there are more strikeouts to come. In the minors, he had a 32% K%, and the four-seamer is really good (16% SwStr%). His locations are impeccable, so any kind of improvement on the secondary stuff should make a big difference on his strikeout rate.
He has all kinds of options to improve on with a curveball, a cutter, a slider, and a changeup in the bag. I expect a step forward on at least one or two of those pitches, and that should help him.
Even if the K% stays at 24% - you’re not going to get crushed by the guy. He doesn’t walk hitters, and that goes a long way to success. Kirby is more expensive than I was hoping for this year, but I have been drafting him. He’s a great SP3 to put on your team, and in less competitive league you can probably get him as your fourth guy.
Severino: The question has long been health with Severino. He fell short of a full season again in 2022 with just 19 starts and 102 innings pitched. He was good in that time, of course, with a 3.18 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, a 28% K% and a 7.4% BB%. His stuff is great (109 Stuff+), and his locations are also good (102 Location+). That helped him to a strong 13.7% SwStr%, and he keeps the ball out of the air pretty well (45% GB%).
Severino is in the last year of his contact this year, which maybe makes it more likely that the Yankees let him exceed 170 innings if he’s healthy. If he gets anywhere near 170 innings, he’ll be one of the more valuable draft picks at the position with how good he is. That is asking a lot from a guy who has thrown just 129 innings over the last two seasons though.
Greene: The Greene hype is real. After being super inconsistent for most of the year (5.26 ERA, 2.02 HR/9, 9.3% BB% in his first 20 starts), he figured it out big time over his final seven starts (30 IP, 1.20 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 43% K%, 7.5% BB%). In those last couple of months, his location+ did improve - so that’s a good sign. Eno Sarris wrote about how he started elevating his four-seamer fastball more, and he credits that with a lot of the improvements.
There’s no doubt that the strikeout rate will be fantastic. His four-seamer and slider are two of the league’s best pitches, the kid is just filthy. The question is if he can handle the walks and keep the ball in the yard. He is going to give up a bunch of fly balls with that pitch mix, and Great American Ballpark is not a good place to do that. However, if he’s putting away a third of hitters with the strikeout, it hurts way less.
Greene’s upside is 2022 Strider, although he’s not likely to win a ton of games on a team that is probably the worst in the division (go Bucs). If I have to choose buy or sell, I’m buying - but I’m not jumping out of my shorts to get him.
Gilbert: Everything in 2022 was a step back from 2021.
K%: 25.5% → 22.8%
BB%: 5.2% → 6.2%
SwStr%: 13.8% → 12.2%
He is another guy who has been tinkering around at Driveline this offseason, so that could unlock a change in 2023.
He also had a really, really strong end to the season with a 2.00 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP on a 29%-6% K-BB% over his final six starts. However, for the season he was just “good” rather than great with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP on a 23% K%.
The Stuff model likes Gilbert with a 113 Stuff+ and a 100 Location+ (good stuff, average locations). He is probably going to come into 2023 with a new pitch (or two), and he’s young and talented. I think he’s a little bit too cheap, and I do have some shares of him already and I’m fine with drafting him where he goes if I need a starter.
Webb: Back-to-back Logan’s here! Webb refused to strike hitters out in 2022 with a 20.7% K%, but he won 15 games by controlling hard contact and benefiting from the ballpark once again. He put up a great 58% GB% and a super low .289 xwOBA.
As you know, I don’t like to be reliant on pitchers controlling contact, cause I don’t really think they can do it year over year. However, Webb does have strikeout stuff in his arsenal with a good slider and changeup backing up his sinker. He probably won’t change anything in 2023 given the success he’s had, but I think a 26% K% is more than possible - and that would take Webb up a tier or two.
Cortes: Some injury concerns already, but signs are pointing to him being fine for the beginning of the season. Cortes was a surprise breakout in 2022, but everything checks out. The 20.3% K-BB% is what you want to see and the Stuff+ was up at 115. The one bad thing is a lower SwStr% at 12.4%. Maybe that brings his K% down a point or two, but I’m not going to fade Cortes just because it’s a buy-high situation right now. He seems legitimately good.
Would I rather invest in someone with more of a track record? Yes. That plus the early injury talk probably means I won’t get any Cortes, but I’m not writing him off here either.
Snell: He had a great season last year after getting a late start. He threw 141 innings with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and another elite 32.4% K%. The walk rate was manageable at 9%, and that makes for a 23% K-BB%. He got better and better as the year went on. While he’s on his game, he’s one of the best in the league.
However, we still have all of these problems with his walk rates and his lack of consistency in his career. He hits the IL every year and hasn’t beaten even 130 innings since his Cy Young year in 2018.
I don’t really want Snell as my SP2 with all the risk that comes with him, but as an SP3 or SP4, I think enough of the risk is taken away that it’s justified.
Price-Considered Tier Ranks
Kirby
Gilbert
Greene
Severino
Ray
Snell
McKenzie
Webb
Cortes
Tier Five
Kyle Wright
Clayton Kershaw
Nick Lodolo
Lance Lynn
Freddy Peralta
Joe Ryan
Jesus Luzardo
Dustin May
Lucas Giolito
Wright: 180 innings and a 3.19 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. That made Wright one of the year’s most valuable pickups. The 23.6% K% and 7.2% BB% are underwhelming, so the K-BB% falls well below what we want down at 16.4%
This is basically the time of the draft when you’re giving up something. All of these guys from here on will either have less talent or serious workload problems. With Wright, it’s just a question of whether or not the stuff is really good enough to be a well-above-average starter again. The Stuff+ was solid at 105, and his locations were above average as well. The SwStr% at 12.9% was good but short of great, and he kept the ball on the ground very well at 56%.
So he seems like a relatively safe pick without a ton of upside. Given that he will be a solid quality starts and wins guy with the Braves, I lean towards liking picking him up as an SP3 or SP4 on my teams. He’s a good guy to pair with a guy like Snell who has that big-time upside with risk.
Kershaw: We absolutely know he’s not going to throw 150+ innings. The Dodgers just aren’t going to let him do that even if he doesn’t get hurt. That takes away a ton of appeal right away. However, if you think he’s still going to be as dominant as he always has been - the price is right.
Eventually, Kershaw is going to take a step backward. He will be 35 now, so that’s starting to be a real concern. I think it’s fair to think he’ll still be elite when pitching, but it’s not a foregone conclusion - so pairing that up with the fact that he’s not going to make 28+ starts for your team and you have problems. I’m probably out on Kershaw.
Lodolo: Lodolo started the draft season back in December going ahead of Hunter Greene, but those two have gone in opposite directions. That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, since Lodolo was better than Greene last year with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.25 ERA over 19 starts to go with his great 29.7% K% and “fine” 8.8% BB%.
The reason to like him more than Greene has to do with the ground-ball stuff. Lodolo’s primary weapons are a sinker and a curveball, and both generate ground balls. That helps a lot when you’re pitching in Cincinnati.
The reason to avoid him is the concerns about the team context (they are unlikely to push him above 150 innings if their season is over in July), and the back injury he had last year. We know what a back injury can do to a tall pitcher. Lodolo is very similar to Chris Sale and we know all the problems Sale has had staying on the field.
I don’t really think you’re going to lose your league because you faded Lodolo, so while I really like the guy - I think the risk and the lack of a huge upside probably justify the fade.
Lynn: I think he’s my most-drafted SP this year. He missed a lot of time last year and pitched bad in his first five or so starts, and that has brought his price way down here. He’s old (35), but I just don’t think he’s going to age horribly given how he attacks. He throws those three fastball variations and tunnels them so well that hitters just can’t get the bat to the ball.
Assuming he’s healthy this year, I think he murders this ADP. He’d be a tier above this one for me if I was doing it based on my actual SP ranks.
Peralta: Very similar to Lynn. Peralta is an ace when he’s going right, but he’s had trouble staying on the field. He threw just 78 innings in the Majors last year, but pitched well with a 27% K% and an 8.5% BB%. I think he beats those marks this year if/when he’s healthy, he was definitely not out there at 100% for most of his 17 starts.
Will you get 150+ innings out of Peralta? Probably not. He threw just 144 in his breakout 2021 season, and now there’s a long way to build up from the 83.1 total innings (including a couple of outings in the minors) last season.
He’s cheap enough to take a shot on, however.
Ryan: There have been a ton of reports about Ryan coming into 2023 as a new pitcher. That is something to monitor but not overreact to. His 2022 season was a disappointment, but he did have injuries as a big part of that and he pitched pretty well after getting right late in the year.
I wouldn’t draft Ryan if not for these rumors that he’s working on new pitches. I think most of the time news like that ends up not being actionable, but it certainly does add upside. If he falls, I’ll draft him - but he’s far from a priority for me.
Luzardo: I view him a lot like Blake Snell. He has these problems that come up with walk rates and injuries, but he’s really, really good when he’s on his game. He threw 112 innings last year with a 29.7% K%, and a walk rate under 9% (8.8%). That was after being completely terrible in 2021 though, with a 6.59 ERA in 124 innings (21.7% K%, 11% BB%). There’s a ton of risk here with Luzardo, he just doesn’t seem like a guy that has quite figured out how to be consistent yet. Once you add in the innings concerns, you have a guy that is a bit tough to draft.
May: If Lynn is my most-drafted pitcher, May is my second-most. There are concerns about the workload, of course, after throwing just 72 total innings at all levels since 2021. In terms of raw ability, he’s a top-ten arm in the league. I suppose it doesn’t make a ton of sense to not like Kershaw while liking May, since they’re in pretty similar situations as uber-talented arms whom we can only expect 130-140 innings from.
If one of them gets 170 innings though, you would think it would be May. I guess I don’t even really know why I say that, but I don’t know - I just think May is so good and so fun to watch that I want him on my team.
Giolito: I like Giolito as a bounce-back, and I’ve written a lot about that. The field is still skeptical, as he’s way down here as the 42nd pitcher off the board. That makes Giolito an SP4 or SP5 potentially for your team, and that is hard not to like. Even with all the problems he had last year, he maintained a decent enough 25.4% K% and a good 13.5% SwStr%. He needs to improve his fastball and slider so as to get the most out of his great changeup. I can’t imagine he wasn’t working on that stuff hard this offseason after how bad 2022 was for him, so I think there’s a really good chance he pitches like an SP2 for your fantasy team as compared to an SP6.
One thing I have done a couple of times is waiting on SP and then just loading up on these types of pitchers. If I can get 5-7 cheaper pitchers that are really, really good when healthy - all I then have to hope for is that they’re not all hurt at the same time.
That’s what this tier is best for. Maybe you can get crazy and take the discount on a guy like Glasnow as your SP2, and then reach into this tier two or three times and hope for the best. You could have Lynn and Peralta going at the beginning of the year, and just hope that if they go on the IL - Glasnow is back by then. It’s not as crazy of a strategy as it sounds, I don’t think.
Tier Price-Considered Rankings
Lynn
Wright
May
Peralta
Lodolo
Kershaw
Ryan
Giolito
Luzardo
Alright there you go, 18 more pitchers covered. We’ll keep trucking along for a few more tiers - although the write-ups may shorten up so I can get this done in a reasonable amount of time! Thanks for subscribing!