Rest of Season SP Rankings
I re-rank my top 60 SPs for the final three months of the season.
It’s mid-season, so it’s time to start re-evaluating some things and get ready for the stretch run. I took a look at some second-half breakout players here, and today, I’m going to give you my rest-of-season top 50 starting pitchers.
We’ll go by tiers and add some commentary along the way.
Other Positions
Tier One
Tyler Glasnow
Tarik Skubal
Zack Wheeler
Corbin Burnes
Chris Sale
Notes
This could go a few different ways; they’re all very close.
Glasnow gets the nod due to the team context.
It’s been a long time since Sale completed a full season, but he’s at a ridiculous 28% K-BB% and a 49% GB% this year, so I can’t knock him out of tier one just because of the injury history.
Tier Two
Cole Ragans
Gerrit Cole
Paul Skenes
Garrett Crochet
Freddy Peralta
Notes
Cole Ragans could be a tier-one arm, but the walk rate at 8% plus the fact that he hasn’t pitched a full season as a starter bumped him out of it.
There’s not as much love for Freddy Peralta out there as there should be. He’s at an awesome 22% K-BB% and has been very good for some time now. He will pitch as many innings as he can handle, and the Brewers are winning a lot of games.
It’s a slight leap of faith that Gerrit Cole will get back to his old self, but I think he’s earned himself the benefit of the doubt, even after this slow start (24% K%, 10% BB%).
If workload wasn’t a factor, Garrett Crochet would be tier-one. It’s just hard to believe he’ll start every fifth game down the stretch, and there is a non-zero risk of the White Sox holding onto him at the deadline and just ending his season early to save his arm.
It’s fair to worry the same about Paul Skenes, but the Pirates have been pretty loose with him so far. He’s gone over 100 pitches a few times, and he’s started every fifth game since getting to the Majors. There was no shortage of innings last year between college and the minors, so I don’t see why he can’t make 15 or 16 more starts from here on. Oh, and he’s also a clear top-five pitcher in the league.
Tier Three
George Kirby
Max Fried
Zac Gallen
Logan Gilbert
Grayson Rodriguez
Pablo Lopez
Jack Flaherty
Dylan Cease
Luis Castillo
Sonny Gray
Joe Ryan
Notes
A bigger tier here with guys that have in the past pitched like fantasy aces. All of these names can be clear SP1’s down the stretch, but there are some question marks with each guy.
Kirby / Fried / Gallen / Gilbert - Lower Strikeouts, BABIP Risks.
Rodriguez / Lopez - Have had plenty of spots this year where they just haven’t looked all that good.
Flaherty - A history of mediocrity before this year and some injury flare-ups recently.
Castillo - Just a 24% K% this year, he’s just not as dominant as years past.
Gray - I guess there aren’t any real issues with him (31% K%, 14% SwStr%, 6.5% BB%), but I still just can’t buy into him as a fantasy SP1.
Ryan - Another fantastic K-BB% (23.5%), but he’s always a risk of giving up multiple home runs and really blowing up your team’s ERA if they are not timed well.
Tier Four
Nick Pivetta
Justin Steele
Logan Webb
Tanner Bibee
Shota Imanaga
Aaron Nola
Kevin Gausman
Hunter Greene
Notes
Pretty big drop-off to these guys. I don’t feel overly confident about any of them in terms of them being very good for the rest of the season.
Pivetta’s 22% K-BB% is great to see, but he’s a fly-baller as well, and the SwStr% is down a bit this year to 13%.
Steele has just a 24% K% and is so reliant on keeping the BABIP low (.247 right now), and given the slow start and middling offense behind him, I cannot put him in that Fried/Gallen group even though he is very similar to those two.
Webb is just the same guy he’s always been. Low strikeout rate (21%), but he is nearly impossible to homer off of (58% GB%, 97 PA/HR), and he gives you so many innings.
Bibee was absolutely cruising until his last hiccup, but for the year he’s at a fantastic 22.5% K-BB% and 14% SwStr%. The walk rate is also under 6%; it’s hard to criticize much in the profile here.
I might be too high on Hunter Greene, but it’s a pretty strong 17% K-BB%, which could improve. I think his 27% K% will come up, given the 15% SwStr%. The risk is that he gives up more homers in the hot weather, he’s somehow avoided that this year (48 PA/HR) despite a low 36% GB%.
Imanaga’s ranking is still anchored by his elite start to the year. We can’t forget about that, but the K-BB% is heading in the wrong direction lately.
Tier Five
Ranger Suarez
Nathan Eovaldi
Bobby Miller
Taj Bradley
Michael King
Ryan Pepiot
Blake Snell
Notes
A bunch of question marks at this point.
I’m sure a lot of people will be confused about Ranger Suarez being this low, given his successes this season, but he’s looked pretty bad lately, and the season's SwStr% is just 10.8%. He looks pretty average over all of the place, except in the ERA and wins columns, which are unreliable.
Bobby Miller is back but has yet to look good (12% K% in three starts). We are assuming the stuff gets back to where it was, and the command comes back as well. It’s possible that won’t happen, so I’m not very confident about his second half. But the ceiling is still extremely high.
A 31% K% for Taj Bradley, and that makes the 9% BB% stomachable. He even has a 52% GB%.
Michael King wasn’t very good early on, but since May he sports a great 21% K-BB% and .618 OPS allowed.
You still have to think that Blake Snell will have one of his classic months where he just dominates everybody. He’s back in the rotation now, so I’ll take him in the top 40 for the rest of the way, although I might end up looking really stupid on that. I hate Blake Snell.
Tier Six
Reynaldo Lopez
MacKenzie Gore
Tanner Houck
Notes
The league ERA leader down at #36! But that’s what I’m going to do with Reynaldo Lopez, a guy who has already thrown more innings than any season since 2019 and a SIERA two runs above the ERA.
MacKenzie Gore seems to always be on the verge of collapse, but his numbers this year are strong. A 19% K-BB%, a 15.5% SwStr%, and a career-best 35.7% Ball%. He even has some positive regression likely coming with the .373 BABIP.
I’m low on Houck as well. That’s because of the 91 PA/HR, he just hasn’t been burned at all by the long ball and I don’t think that can last. His K-BB% is good but not great at 18%, and since June it’s 16%. He’s not a high whiff pitcher either (10% SwStr% since June), so I think there’s going to be some harder times ahead for Houck.
Tier Seven
Kutter Crawford
Nestor Cortes
Luis Gil
Bailey Ober
Bryce Miller
Gavin Williams
Yusei Kikuchi
Max Scherzer
Notes
Lots of different types in this tier.
Crawford: Just very solid this year with an 18% K-BB% and .648 OPS allowed. I don’t think there’s a ton of ceiling, but he’s strong.
Much of the same with Cortes. Solid floor pitcher.
Gil has no floor at all and I wouldn’t want him on my team, but he’s capable of some really dominant stretches, as we’ve seen.
I’m still big on Ober and Miller. Both seem like solid floor pitchers with ceiling.
Kikuchi and Scherzer could go either way. Scherzer isn’t what he once was, but the smart money is on him still being pretty good even with the velocity gone.
Tier Eight
Carlos Rodon
Mitch Keller
Shane Baz
Seth Lugo
Notes
Rodon has been a rollercoaster, but he’s been getting a good number of strikeouts lately. I just don’t trust the guy
Mitch Keller has put up some great box score results, but it’s still just a 15.5% K-BB% and 10.6% SwStr% this year.
Shane Baz is awesome, but it seems nuts to think his body can hold up.
I don’t understand how Seth Lugo does it, but he does it.
Tier Nine
Cristopher Sanchez
Framber Valdez
Hunter Brown
Jake Irvin
Spencer Schwellenbach
Christian Scott
Gavin Stone
Zach Eflin
Reese Olson
Charlie Morton
Notes
And then just a bunch of “the rest”. I’m probably the highest analyst in the industry on Schwellenbach, so I hope I’m right on that, that would make me look cool.
The upside names here are Valdez (if he can get the strikeouts back), Scott (needs some refinement, but he’s young), and Stone. The guys I think will be really inconsistent are Sanchez, Irvin, Brown, Eflin, Olson, and Morton.
But all of these names should probably be owned in 12-team leagues, and probably even most ten-teamers.
Unranked Injured Pitchers
Bryan Woo: Should be back soon, I’d probably have him in tier six if he was healthy right now.
Nick Lodolo: Similar to Woo, he’s on his way back and is a very good arm. I doubt this is his last IL stint, but he’s right up there with the tiers 4-5 pitchers when healthy.
Jeffrey Springs: Springs was only really, really good for 16 innings last year, so there might some over-valuing him when he returns. I’d put him with the tier-six names.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: I can’t figure out exactly when he’s back, but he’s a clear top-20 pitcher upon return.
Joe Musgrove: We probably won’t see Musgrove until August, and he’s a step below the game’s best even when he’s going right. I’d value him around tier six.
Jared Jones: He’s a tier-five arm when healthy, but it’s looking like at least a month until we see him back in the Majors. If he gets fully healthy, it could be an awesome final two months since the Pirates will have some innings for him to play with, but he’s not very valuable right now.
Yu Darvish: He’s gone for a personal matter, so I just have no clue how to rank him. He’s a top 60 guy if he does get back, though.
Justin Verlander: I wasn’t very impressed with what he was doing before the injury, and the news hasn’t been great. I doubt I’d have Verlander in my top 50 even if we thought he was coming back right after the break.
I wrote this all in one shot, so that was quite a task. Hope you enjoyed it, here’s hoping for a fun final week of the first half!
Apparently I can’t read. Carry on.